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Found a message board with a post from 9/13/2012 (just about 4 years ago to the day) that quotes 538 giving Obama a 64.3% chance of winning, so apparently Trump is running a bit behind where Romney was at this stage. Considering that Romney lost, that's not looking too good for Trump.
Ken
Also the 2012 DNC had just ended on Sept 6, so Obama was probably at the top of his post convention bounce. Whereas Clinton's is long gone.
Also the 2012 DNC had just ended on Sept 6, so Obama was probably at the top of his post convention bounce. Whereas Clinton's is long gone.
According the 538, Obama's odds were ~75% from early September until very early in October. He sank very briefly to around ~62% (Romney 38% chance) and rose until the election.
According the 538, Obama's odds were ~75% from early September until very early in October. He sank very briefly to around ~62% (Romney 38% chance) and rose until the election.
You are acting like this is a game of chance. Like selecting the red ball out of a hat. It's not. It's not a random event. For the odds to shift in this game, things have to happen, mistakes must be made, revelations revealed. It's a whole slew of contingent probabilities, most of which defy mathematical quantification and all of which are unknown at this point. We can't predict if those will happen or whom they will benefit. So, all that can be said is right now, things look dark as midnight for Trump.
According to the polls, Clinton is clearly ahead nationwide 3%. The swing states are +/-3% for both candidates in the polls.
The debates, the debates, the debates will decide the election in my opinion, unless there is a massive snow or rainstorm across the entire rustbelt and Florida on election day.
Why not vote for Jill Stein instead? Mississippi is a good example of what happens when right wing extremists and puppets of the billionaire class get to rule. What do you have to lose by voting Jill Stein who is fighting for the 99%? Or are you part of the donor class?
Reading the methodology, you can find that the question was asked in this manner:
"If the election were held today, for whom would you vote; (Rotate First Two Names Only)
Clinton - Democrat
Trump - Republican (End Rotation) Johnson - Libertarian
Stein - GreenIn other words, the listener would hear either - Clinton-Trump-Johnson-Stein
or
Trump-Clinton-Johnson-Stein.
Then the Trump & Clinton voters were asked if their vote was more against the opposing candidate, or in favor of their chosen candidate.
The Answers?:
43% against Clinton
37% against Trump.
Do you think asking questions the way they are influences the answers?
How can anyone trust someone like him who has no idea what the eff he's doing or talking about? Trust him? How? He couldn't even answer a BASIC question of what his plan would be for ISIS. He simply tiptoed around it saying he's got one & that's all we need to know. Oh yeah, & the great "I'm not saying what my plan is, I don't want the enemy to know". What a freakin' joke. I can see his campaign people: looking around at each other with blank looks......well, we don't have a plan.....I know, we'll try to cover up our ineptness by saying we have a plan but no way would we ever broadcast it at a debate because we don't want our enemies to know!!!, while at the same time screaming for Clinton to tell the people what her security plan is. And Trump supporters bought it! Hahahahahaha!!!!! My god, Trump people are the dumbest people on the planet. Literally. The. Dumbest.
"How can anyone trust someone like him who has no idea what the eff he's doing or talking about?"
We understand your biased opinion.
How can ANYONE trust hillary when we KNOW what she had done?
"and Trump supporters bought it! Hahahahahaha!!!!! My god, Trump people are the dumbest people on the planet. Literally. The. Dumbest.'
and hill supporters bought it! Hahahahahaha!!!!! My god, hill people are the dumbest people on the planet. Literally. The. Dumbest.
See how easy that is?
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