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Old 09-09-2016, 10:46 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,190 posts, read 19,470,309 times
Reputation: 5305

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Quote:
Originally Posted by eddiehaskell View Post
And that's exactly what we were looking at.
Trump's highest amounts were in the now cast mosel right after the RNC convention. His high point in the other two midels were around the same time, but a bit lower

Likewise Clinton's tops were in the now cast model shortly after the DNC convention. Her highest in the other two models were around the same time, but not quite as high as the now cast models.

This makes sense on both ends as the now cast model puts heavier weight on the newest polls (all three models do, but more weighted in now cast) and doesn't lighten the weight of the polls right after the Convention. As a result now cast will tend to see heavier and quicker swings than the other two models, especially after the Convention.

This does diminish somewhat as you get closer to Election day, which is something we are already starting to see.

 
Old 09-09-2016, 12:09 PM
 
Location: Somewhere
8,069 posts, read 6,972,454 times
Reputation: 5654
Oh-oh more bad news for the clown

LA times is showing Clinton +1

LA Times/USC Tracking 9/2 - 9/8 2653 LV Clinton*** 45 Trump *** 44 Clinton +1
 
Old 09-09-2016, 01:01 PM
 
12,547 posts, read 9,938,955 times
Reputation: 6927
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sugah Ray View Post
Oh-oh more bad news for the clown

LA times is showing Clinton +1

LA Times/USC Tracking 9/2 - 9/8 2653 LV Clinton*** 45 Trump *** 44 Clinton +1
It's actually tied.

LA Times/USC Tracking

Clinton 44.5%
Trump 44.3%

http://www.latimes.com/politics/
 
Old 09-09-2016, 01:16 PM
 
Location: Somewhere
8,069 posts, read 6,972,454 times
Reputation: 5654
Quote:
Originally Posted by eddiehaskell View Post
It's actually tied.

LA Times/USC Tracking

Clinton 44.5%
Trump 44.3%

Politics - Los Angeles Times
That's the average, not the poll.
 
Old 09-09-2016, 01:25 PM
 
12,547 posts, read 9,938,955 times
Reputation: 6927
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sugah Ray View Post
That's the average, not the poll.
I thought averages are what matters?
 
Old 09-09-2016, 02:22 PM
 
Location: Unplugged from the matrix
4,754 posts, read 2,978,357 times
Reputation: 5126
Quote:
Originally Posted by eddiehaskell View Post
I thought averages are what matters?
Funny how things are changing now that Trump has inched closer and is leading in some polls.
 
Old 09-09-2016, 02:45 PM
 
Location: University City, Philadelphia
22,632 posts, read 14,945,990 times
Reputation: 15935
Right now the race is very tight.

I do not give any importance to national polls ... it's the "battleground" states that matter.
 
Old 09-09-2016, 03:28 PM
 
12,547 posts, read 9,938,955 times
Reputation: 6927
Quote:
Originally Posted by DabOnEm View Post
Funny how things are changing now that Trump has inched closer and is leading in some polls.
Yeah, the poll thumpers seem to be getting nervous. Some just totally avoid this thread now...fair weather fans.
 
Old 09-09-2016, 04:56 PM
 
19,128 posts, read 25,336,687 times
Reputation: 25434
Quote:
Originally Posted by eddiehaskell View Post
He actually peaked at 57.5% on July 25th:

Nate Silver: Trump Would Win If The Election Were Today

That's about 60% from where I'm standing.
You would be...more or less...correct, if you were posting up-to-date information.

As of a few hours ago, the info from Nate Silver indicates this:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...id=rrpromo#now

 
Old 09-09-2016, 05:11 PM
 
Location: Somewhere
8,069 posts, read 6,972,454 times
Reputation: 5654
Quote:
Originally Posted by eddiehaskell View Post
I thought averages are what matters?
Of course averages matter but that's not what I had posted, so you should have not corrected me.

Anyone familiar with LA Times polls knows that their methodology is different. They poll the same pool of people to measure change of attitudes within the same group of people.
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