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538 has three different models 42.1% is the polls-only model, 37.5% is the now-cast model, also have a polls plus model at 43.4%. The way the models are built certain models will react quicker to change than the others. The now-cast model has the potential to swing the most when new polls comes out due to the fact that model has more weight on the newer polls than the other two models (all three models do weight the newer polls heavier, but the now-cast model doesn't it to a stronger degree).
With that being said as I mentioned in my previous post, it is too early to tell if this bump is related to the debate, as there simply hasn't been enough of purely after debate polls released yet.
Between this and rcp, there is plenty of superb data out there.
Between this and rcp, there is plenty of superb data out there.
I didn't say there wasn't a ton of data, I was specifically referring to polls in which the entire poll was taken after the debate. There simply hasn't been many of them so far, and considering we are just 48 hours from the end of the debate that makes sense, but we will probably see a whole bunch over the next couple days through the weekend and early next week. Once we get more of those in we will have a better idea if the state of the race changed at all from the debate.
As a warning, you should give the debate five to seven days to be fully reflected in FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts. It will take a couple of days before reliable, post-debate polls are released, and then another couple of days before the model recognizes them to be part of a trend instead of potential outliers.
Also, check the dates carefully on polls released over the next few days to make sure they were conducted after the debate. Although pollsters released dozens and dozens of polls over the weekend in anticipation of the debate, there are probably a few pre-debate stragglers that will slip through.
again, how can people think Trump will win? Is it just wishful thinking? Denial?
It's mind boggling isn't it? That people still love that man, despite how childish, ignorant, obnoxious, rude, and petty he has proven himself to be over and over again. It defies all rationality.
This is an anti Establishment year and era. Hence 2 outsiders, Sanders and Trump, are thriving, while HRC is mimicking her 2008 performance, where she started an even bigger favorite and was left in the dust.
It's mind boggling isn't it? That people still love that man, despite how childish, ignorant, obnoxious, rude, and petty he has proven himself to be over and over again. It defies all rationality.
Clearly his supporters have no idea of the complexity of US and global issues - and place no value on civil behavior and discourse. Trump is a self-centered, rude, boorish, mentally lazy, arrogant tyrant - and may be mentally deficient, to boot. Up to this point I wouldn't entertain that thought, but his debate and post-debate behavior for a 70 y/o "adult" "man" is incomprehensible. And, yet, people are willing to entrust the US and world affairs to this dunce (my favorite word for him these days).
Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium does statistical analysis of state polls. His methods and results are highly regarded. Using 170 state polls, he currently has
Electoral college prediction: Clinton 303 Trump 235
Clinton Nov. win probability: 76% to 84%
again, how can people think Trump will win? Is it just wishful thinking? Denial?
Because as horrible as he is, Hillary is still the second-worst candidate in the history of the United States. There is a very real chance that she will somehow find a way to lose this race; I honestly don't think there's ever been a presidential candidate who was more hated than Hillary is. If she weren't running against the worst candidate in history, she'd be down by 30 points right now - seriously.
Tens of millions of people who are planning to vote for her are literally begging for some excuse to vote for anyone other than her, and if she has one more public out-of-body experience, many of them will swallow their own vomit and vote for Trump. The polls strongly suggest a Clinton victory, but the fact is, we're never more than one unpredictable incident away from the numbers being turned upside down in a heartbeat.
Because as horrible as he is, Hillary is still the second-worst candidate in the history of the United States. There is a very real chance that she will somehow find a way to lose this race; I honestly don't think there's ever been a presidential candidate who was more hated than Hillary is. If she weren't running against the worst candidate in history, she'd be down by 30 points right now - seriously.
Tens of millions of people who are planning to vote for her are literally begging for some excuse to vote for anyone other than her, and if she has one more public out-of-body experience, many of them will swallow their own vomit and vote for Trump. The polls strongly suggest a Clinton victory, but the fact is, we're never more than one unpredictable incident away from the numbers being turned upside down in a heartbeat.
I don't believe that. People in this country are very bipartisan. Hitler could run as a republican or Charles Manson as a democrat and people would still vote for them because they have an R or a D right next to their name.
That people still love that man, despite how childish, ignorant, obnoxious, rude, and petty he has proven himself to be over and over again. It defies all rationality.
Look at the descriptors you used and then look at his supporters on different forums. Most of them not only describe Trump but also his supporters.
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