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It's 39.0 right now! What a difference a few minutes makes!
I can understand your excitement over any small gains - your candidate's chances have been getting worse and worse for a month. Check out the curve on those graphs!
I can understand your excitement over any small gains - your candidate's chances have been getting worse and worse for a month. Check out the curve on those graphs!
Ah come on! I was just copying you from when you were posting every 10 minutes of changes in the NowCast last week. I am very, very confident that my candidate is going to win with ease, so not really too moved one way or the other by Nate's NowCast.
Probably added in the new PPP poll. I wasn't paying super close attention to the TV where I heard it but I think Hillary was +4.
The thing that caught my attention is that they polled a 5-way race, and McMullin is at 2% - apparently cutting into Stein's vote, because she was down to 1%.
After Johnson's latest disastrous performance, I bet McMullin starts to make up some more ground on him.
Looks like 538's adjusted numbers for PPP has them polling 2-3% in favor of Clinton. Therefore, the adjusted number will likely be Clinton +1 or +2.
Keep in mind that the adjusted numbers also take into consideration when the trend since the poll was taken. A brand new poll might not have the same trend adjustment.
Now, it does appear Clinton has picked up a little ground with the polls that just came out. With that being said, the polls that just came out appear to be a mix of polls taken right before the debate that did not come out right away and polls taken partially before and partially after the debate. There hasn't been that much yet of polls taken entirely after the debate. Once we start seeing more of them (which we will start to see more of over the next few days) we might be able to get a better picture of any impact the debate had.
I would say 7-10 days out from the debate is where you would probably have the clearest picture across all three models of the impact (if any) the debate had, though you might start to see signs a bit before that (especially with the now-cast model). However, at this point there isn't enough polling conducted entirely after the debate to really gauge ha
538 has three different models 42.1% is the polls-only model, 37.5% is the now-cast model, also have a polls plus model at 43.4%. The way the models are built certain models will react quicker to change than the others. The now-cast model has the potential to swing the most when new polls comes out due to the fact that model has more weight on the newer polls than the other two models (all three models do weight the newer polls heavier, but the now-cast model doesn't it to a stronger degree).
With that being said as I mentioned in my previous post, it is too early to tell if this bump is related to the debate, as there simply hasn't been enough of purely after debate polls released yet.
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