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Nate has called the winner in 101 of 102 contests in the 50 states plus DC in the 2008 and 2012 elections. That's an accuracy rate of 99%. I think his only miss in the last 2 elections was Indiana in 2008.
Not to take anything away from him, but think about what 101 of 102 means. It's a good looking number, but what elections boil down to are about 10 swing states. Of those 10, 7 of them may be rather easy to pick based on the most recent polls. So over the course of 2 elections, their may be 6 (3x2) states that take a little insight to pick correctly.
Saying someone picked 5 out of 6 of the hard to call states correctly doesn't have the same impact as saying they picked 101 of 102 correctly.
I am stocking up on popcorn for the many Karl Rove-sized meltdowns on Election Night.
This board will be a ghost town on election night if Hillary wins. The Trump Davidians will retreat to their caves and start to pass out the kool-aid. A few may linger long enough to start their secession petitions, but most will disappear.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eddiehaskell
Not to take anything away from him, but think about what 101 of 102 means. It's a good looking number, but what elections boil down to are about 10 swing states. Of those 10, 7 of them may be rather easy to pick based on the most recent polls. So over the course of 2 elections, their may be 6 (3x2) states that take a little insight to pick correctly.
Saying someone picked 5 out of 6 of the hard to call states correctly doesn't have the same impact as saying they picked 101 of 102 correctly.
Nate Silver has the most consistent accurate predictions, no matter how you slice it. And the includes the down ballot races.
Nate Silver has the most consistent accurate predictions, no matter how you slice it. And the includes the down ballot races.
I didn't say he doesn't have an accurate history. Just putting the 101 of 102 number in perspective. Just about anyone could pick say 97 out of 102 in the last two elections.
I didn't say he doesn't have an accurate history. Just putting the 101 of 102 number in perspective. Just about anyone could pick say 97 out of 102 in the last two elections.
I don't know that no one did because I haven't seen everyone's picks.
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