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Polls Plus- Clinton up by 3.2% with a 71.2% chance to win. Best showing for Clinton in this model since the end of August. Compared to 2012, Trump picks up Iowa, Ohio and ME-2, Clinton picks up North Carolina. North Carolina is the closest state with Clinton up by 0.3% EV's 322-216
Polls-Only Clinton up by 4.3% with a 74.9% chance to win. Best showing for Clinton in this model since the end of August. Compared to 2012, Trump picks up Iowa, and ME-2. Clinton picks up North Carolina. Ohio the closest state with Clinton up by 0.1% EV's 340-198
Now-Cast Clinton up by 5.0% with a 81.9% chance to win, best showing in this model since about a week left in August. Compared to 2012, Trump picks up Iowa, and ME-2. Clinton picks up North Carolina. Iowa is the closest state with rump up by 0.3%. EV's 340-198
I'm trying to understand how 538 gives Ohio to Clinton. Right now, I'd say when pigs fly.
If you go to the Nowcast and double click on Ohio, it will bring up how his computer program made that call. Here it is, doesn't copy very well, but it gives you an idea of the adjustments he makes.
CLINTON
TRUMP
JOHNSON
1. Polling average 40.8%- 42.2%- 7.8%-
Adjust for likely voters +0.2-- +0.2-- -0.1--
Adjust for omitted third parties -0.3-- -0.3-- +0.0--
Adjust for trend line +1.6-- +0.2-- -0.6--
Adjust for house effects -0.0-- -0.4-- +0.1--
2. Adjusted polling average 42.2%- 41.9%- 7.2%-
Allocate undecided and third-party voters +3.2-- +3.2-- +0.9--
3. Polls-based vote share 45.4%- 45.1%- 8.2%-
Calculate demographic regression 46.4%- 44.1%- 8.9%-
4. Vote share if election were today. Clinton 45.5% Trump 45.0% Johnson 8.2%
Weighted average 92% polls-based, 8% demographics
Here's what his 3 models currently show for the actual percentage in Ohio
Nowcast: Clinton 45.5% Trump 45.0% Johnson 8.2%
Polls Only: Clinton 45.6% Trump 45.5% Johnson 7.6%
Polls Plus: Trump 46.2% Clinton 45.5% Johnson 7.0%
The LA Times poll asks 3 questions: Who would you vote for? Who do you think will win?, and Do you plan to vote?
The numbers that everyone quotes (especially Trump supporters) are the results for the "Who would you vote for" question but according to the intro to the results of the Who do you think will win question:
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I was on the LA Times poll site just now. The first question asked of people being polled is:
Quote:
Who Will You Vote For?
We ask voters what the chance is that they will vote for Trump, Clinton or someone else, using a 0-100 scale.
Now it's clear to me why Donald Trump is leading in this poll - the USA Dornsife poll weights it polling by 'enthusiasm'. Of course Trump is leading, his faithful following is 100% certain that they are voting for Trump, while Hillary Clinton's supporters may only be 60% or 75% on average certain that they are voting for Clinton. While it's a new and interesting way of polling (one might even call it special), it assumes that supporter enthusiasm is directly proportional to actual voter participation.
My take on this is that the 'chance that you'll vote for' your candidate of choice will improve significantly for Clinton as Election Day nears. But a large block of Trump's voters are already near 100% enthusiasm - he's already at his 'popularity ceiling' with the Trump faithful.
I'm trying to understand how 538 gives Ohio to Clinton. Right now, I'd say when pigs fly.
I don't know what their logic is but I think Clinton will win Ohio based on earlier polls and on Ohio's demographics.
I actually think Trump has more chances of winning Florida than Ohio but he will lose both if he continues acting like a maniac tweeting garbage at 3:00 am and going totally unprepared to those debates.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ariadne22
I'm trying to understand how 538 gives Ohio to Clinton. Right now, I'd say when pigs fly.
A lot of polls are arguing an older whiter turnout, some of the projectors are using the poll number, but adjusting them to fit what they believe the demographics will be.
In those projections, Clinton wins Ohio by 2 or 3 points instead of losing it by 4.
Who ends up voting in this election will be one of the biggest factors of whether we laugh at the pollsters or praise them for being close to accurate.
If the pollsters are absolutely wrong, or if some of the people at the top of the ticket can carry clinton.
Look at Missouri for example. People are expecting a Trump win on demographics alone, but the Democratic gubernatorial candidate is up 11 on average with some local polls having him up by 17 and over 50% in those polls. What happens if he carries Clinton along with him to the finish line, and Roy Blunt doesnt seem to be doing much better against Jason Kander where Kander leads in the last poll taken there.
North Carolina, 4 straight polls where the Democratic Candidates for Senate and Governor are leading republican incumbents.
Indiana is another example, where the senator is Up above the margin of error, the gubernatorial candidate ran 4 years ago in a republican landslide and only lost by 80,000 votes.
If Clinton can pick of either Indiana or Missouri, then trump doesnt have any real path to 270.
Trumps real problem are the Gary Johnson and Jill Stein voters. They arent going to vote for him, and his job should be making sure they dont vote for her, but they seem to be running to her
I'm trying to understand how 538 gives Ohio to Clinton. Right now, I'd say when pigs fly.
It is a mix depending on the models and the post debate Ohio polling has been sparse, so many of the higher weighted polls used are older polls with a race trend adjustment.
I'm trying to understand how 538 gives Ohio to Clinton. Right now, I'd say when pigs fly.
Clinton had good speeches in Ohio this week and really attacked Trump on his taxes and buying steel from China instead of the US. She's likely to gain some in Ohio. Of course, unlike Trump, Hillary doesn't actually need Ohio to win.
Clinton had good speeches in Ohio this week and really attacked Trump on his taxes and buying steel from China instead of the US. She's likely to gain some in Ohio. Of course, unlike Trump, Hillary doesn't actually need Ohio to win.
Yep - but since Trump does, she can make his life a lot more difficult by forcing him to fight harder for Buckeye ballots. The better she polls in Ohio, the more time and money he has to spend there, because if he doesn't win Ohio November 8th is going to be a very short night for him.
Just saw that Nate Silver gives her a 4.6% lead overall now, the biggest margin she's had since the conventions. That horrible debate and his psychotic 3 AM meltdown are destroying him. What an imbecile.
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