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"Among likely voters, 50 percent support Clinton and 45 percent support Trump. Among registered voters, she holds a 6-point lead over Trump — 49 percent to 43 percent. Last week, Clinton led Trump by 4 points among registered voters, 48 percent to 44 percent.
...
In a four-way match up of likely voters, Clinton leads Trump by 5 points—45 percent to 40 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson now has 10 percent support and Jill Stein maintains 4 percent."
Note that she is trending upwards again.
Survey methodology:
"The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking poll was conducted online September 12 through September 18, 2016 among a national sample of 14,326 adults who say they are registered to vote including 13,320 likely voters. Respondents for this non-probability survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Results have an error estimate of plus or minus 1.2 percentage points."
Note that this is post pneumonia and post the so-called birther retraction.
Try answering the question. WHICH states will he pick up to gain those 14 EVs?
You can't simply say "he will pick up this state:" - he's currently at 25%-38% to win several states that will put him at 269 or 270. Therefore, 538 gives him a ~42% chance of winning the state or states he will need.
If you add up all the states he's 50%+ in, it comes up to around 265. The most likely path from there is NH where he's given a 38% chance to win. Of course Colorado (38%), Michigan (30%), Pennsylvania (30%), and Wisconsin (28%) aren't off the table either.
It's basically a coin flip at this point. Things in life with a 42% chance of happening occur multiple times a day.
You can't simply say "he will pick up this state:" - he's currently at 25%-38% to win several states that will put him at 269 or 270. Therefore, 538 gives him a ~42% chance of winning the state or states he will need.
If you add up all the states he's 50%+ in, it comes up to around 265. The most likely path from there is NH where he's given a 38% chance to win. Of course Colorado (38%), Michigan (30%), Pennsylvania (30%), and Wisconsin (28%) aren't off the table either.
I can just as easily say that Hillary will win NV (she is at 40%) FL (42%) NC (39%) Ohio (39%) Plus all of the ones that she is currently over 60%.
Honestly Fl and NV are too close to call at this point. I don't understand how you are claiming that he will take all states that are statistical ties and that he can take those that are at 30%. The same goes for Hillary, she could take all of the 50% states and those where she is at 30% too.
I can just as easily say that Hillary will win NV (she is at 40%) FL (42%) NC (39%) Ohio (39%) Plus all of the ones that she is currently over 60%.
Honestly Fl and NV are too close to call at this point. I don't understand how you are claiming that he will take all states that are statistical ties and that he can take those that are at 30%. The same goes for Hillary, she could take all of the 50% states and those where she is at 30% too.
Yes, you can say that. That's why she's given a 58% chance compared to 42%. And it's not me claiming anything - I'm just looking at the data on 538. You seem uneasy with Trump's 42% chance of victory. 42% does not equal the 0% chance you may prefer.
Notes: Only 24% think Trump was sincere on birther recant
Rubio down to only a 2% lead.
Honestly think Florida is so big and so divided politically between the Panhandle/North Central/NE & the agricultural areas to Big City Florida Orlando/Tampa/South Florida, its hard to get good polls results with 500 to 700 samples. I think a sample size of several thousand is needed and they have to do landlines/cellphones/ and Speak Spanish to people who speak Spanish.
Yes, you can say that. That's why she's given a 58% chance compared to 42%. And it's not me claiming anything - I'm just looking at the data on 538. You seem uneasy with Trump's 42% chance of victory. 42% does not equal the 0% chance you may prefer.
Not uneasy at all. Either way we will probably have a one term president this time and neither can really do too much damage without the support of congress.
I just wanted to know which states you thought Trump is likely to win to get him to 270. Most of the ones you listed are not really likely wins for Trump.
Of the ones you listed NH and CO are the ones he has the possibility of winning, and they wouldn't put him over 270.
Not uneasy at all. Either way we will probably have a one term president this time and neither can really do too much damage without the support of congress.
I just wanted to know which states you thought Trump is likely to win to get him to 270. Most of the ones you listed are not really likely wins for Trump.
Of the ones you listed NH and CO are the ones he has the possibility of winning, and they wouldn't put him over 270.
I don't know which one(s) he will win. That's why I simply relayed the odds.
Not really correct about NH and CO. NH and CO could be states that win the election for Trump.
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