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Not sure on that. HRC will lose a few hundred k in Philly vs BO due to lower turnout. BO got highest ever inner city turnout. HRC will be like Kerry in that regard.
No, probably not. This is shaping up to be a high turnout election.
It continues to amaze me that so many prominent Republicans are just sitting silently by while Trump drags the reputations of them and their friends through the mud. Why don't people like the Bushes (GW and Dad) speak up, endorse Clinton or encourage people to just not vote for a man who shows such disrespect for men and women who have labored in service to the country for their entire lives? This is truly party over country and it is pathetic.
They don't want the deplorables putting a boot up the arse of Jeb's political career...or what's left of it. Sometimes it's probably better to be silent and let the people have what they want.
They are pissed off that Jeb was dissed. The Bush's have virtually controlled the Republican party for decades. They couldn't hold on to their power long enough to have the next anointed Bush win the nomination. That's what it's about.
The Bush's are a good patriotic family and have contributed a great deal but they don't have the right to expect the American public to vote like they want them to and then have a hissy fit when the next Bush in line doesn't get anointed.
Democrats might take a lesson on this if Trump wins the election.
He has to come up with some zingers, and know which questions he is going to be asked, and when to use those zingers.
Zingers and bs will be good enough. That the general consensus so far is the empty-headed, inconsequential, zero substance responses DT gave at the CIC town hall actually won him that night doesn't bode well for Hillary for any debate. It's Media Reality Gotcha's over tedious policy, any day. Too many of the American public clearly have been and remain fools. All Trump has to do is smart off - and he'll "win." People aren't listening to anything but the BELIEVE ME and TRUST ME - and are projecting all manner of their hopes on this snake oil salesman.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ~HecateWhisperCat~
This is shaping up to be a high turnout election.
Let's hope. Because if it isn't, Hillary loses. As it is, the third-party fracturing of Democrat vote reminds me of 2000. Saw Gary Johnson on C-Span the other day. Something off about him. I think he actually lost a few million brain cells with all the pot he's been doing. Welch I like a lot better.
Not sure on that. HRC will lose a few hundred k in Philly vs BO due to lower turnout. BO got highest ever inner city turnout. HRC will be like Kerry in that regard.
Your post piqued my curiosity, so I checked the returns from Philadelphia County for the last 4 POTUS elections at Dave Leip's site:http://uselectionatlas.org
2012: Obama 588,806 Romney 96,467 = Obama margin of 492,339. BO won the state by 309,840
2008: Obama 595,980 McCain 117,221= Obama margin of 478,759. Obama carried PA by 620,478.
2004: Kerry 542,205 Bush 130,099= Kerry margin of 412,106. Kerry carried PA by 144,248.
2000: Gore 449,182 Bush 100,959= Gore margin of 348,223. Gore carried PA by 204,840.
Kerry received a margin of 80,000 fewer votes in Philly than Obama in his best year. If you want to find a more significant drop than that, Gore in 2000 received about 140,000+ votes than BO is his best year.
The data doesn't support a 200,000 drop in turnout in 2016 in Philadelphia County, unless you think Lurch Kerry was a much better vote magnet for black voters than Hillary, or that 2000 is a better yardstick to what expect in 2016. Even using 2000 as a basis, a 200,000 drop would be significantly more than the historic data suggests.
This is not good news for Trump: voters believe Trump lacks on the job experience for a high level government position. Trump has never served as mayor, governor, senator, or any other government position and it is reflected in these poll results.
This is not good news for Trump: voters believe Trump lacks on the job experience for a high level government position. Trump has never served as mayor, governor, senator, or any other government position and it is reflected in these poll results.
HORRIBLE news for Hillary. Americans are willing to vote for someone they don't think is qualified (so far) INSTEAD OF HILLARY. That should make the Clinton campaign desperate to find an answer and scared they may not find it.
Latest LA Times/USC poll has Trump with 19.6% of black voters and Hillary with 71.4%.
If Trump can get 20% of the black vote it is likely game over...
15% and game over.
I think many liberals have always worried about the Black vote and Trump. They know the Black vote doesn't necessarily give a damn about illegals, a wall or Muslims. When Trump sticks to talking about job protection/creation that's a big selling point.
If this election continues on track for Trump I won't be surprised if he easily gets 15-20% of the black vote.
Your post piqued my curiosity, so I checked the returns from Philadelphia County for the last 4 POTUS elections at Dave Leip's site:http://uselectionatlas.org
2012: Obama 588,806 Romney 96,467 = Obama margin of 492,339. BO won the state by 309,840
2008: Obama 595,980 McCain 117,221= Obama margin of 478,759. Obama carried PA by 620,478.
2004: Kerry 542,205 Bush 130,099= Kerry margin of 412,106. Kerry carried PA by 144,248.
2000: Gore 449,182 Bush 100,959= Gore margin of 348,223. Gore carried PA by 204,840.
Kerry received a margin of 80,000 fewer votes in Philly than Obama in his best year. If you want to find a more significant drop than that, Gore in 2000 received about 140,000+ votes than BO is his best year.
The data doesn't support a 200,000 drop in turnout in 2016 in Philadelphia County, unless you think Lurch Kerry was a much better vote magnet for black voters than Hillary, or that 2000 is a better yardstick to what expect in 2016. Even using 2000 as a basis, a 200,000 drop would be significantly more than the historic data suggests.
My wording was not precise. I was talking about the Philly MTSA, not Philly proper. MTSA includes ring suburbs.
I appreciate you looking up Philly proper.
I am shocked Kerry did so much better than Gore,btw.
I do think HRC will be a worse draw btw than Kerry and Gore. Her negatives are far higher than theirs were. I anticipate light inner city turnout nationally (% voting) Demographic advantages of 2008 and 2012 are not transferrable.
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