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Clinton did a seven figure ad buy in Arizona. If there was any doubt in her campaign she would win PA, NH, VA or even OH, they would not be rolling those expensive dice in Zona. Most of the polls that have come out are garbage polls that are jumping all over the place, or have terrible methodology. Clinton is a solid +5 or better in the polls that count (and even then, the national polls don't count). Trump has not moved at all. Anybody who loves Trump fell in love a long time ago. His absurd and hopeless attempts to convince blacks, and Hispanics have failed. Clinton just has to get her face out there with a smile and remind the women of America that she is a decent person instead of this caricature, like she did at the convention, and it's goodnight, Mr. Trump.
That could be the case but remember that her collapse in the polls has happened over the past week essentially. Now that might reverse itself next week of course but it's also possible that the Clinton team internal polling is not caught up to that fact yet either.
Trump's immigration plan is getting backlash from some of his strongest Latino supporters. Half his Latino advisory council are said to be quitting, not to mention the few Hispanic leaders that endorsed have unendorsed, saying they were misled and burned by his false promises to "soften." Trump gonna get very little Latino and Black vote= general election lose. Romny had more Latino/Black vote and still lost in 2012.
Going from essentially a tie to +5 Trump isn't cause for Trump supporters to smile? And it's not just Iowa - it's the fact of Iowa being part of a larger trend. Two polls from Virginia have it essentially tied. Two polls for PA have it within 5. Marquette poll has Wisconsin at 3%. He's polling better in NC and AZ too. Combine all this with national polls having it essentially tied and it's clear to see Trump has the momentum. He's probably a good first debate away from taking a substantial lead.
It is when you cherry pick one questionable poll to say that. It's defiantly moving in Trumps direction but he is only up by 0.8 in Iowa. Trump won't ever have a substantial lead. I've been saying for months that this was most likely going to be close. The two candidates are just way too unlikable to generate landslides. 270-290 is likely where it will end up sitting.
Silver's polls-plus forecast now has Trump 31% to win the election. That's up from around 20% 2-3 weeks ago. At this rate I wouldn't be surprised if he's at 40%+ going into the first debate. Hillary better not slip up...and be praying Assange doesn't have much on her.
I think the debates are basically where the remaining voters will make up their mind. Actually, a few focus groups I've read have said two things. That are tired of hearing about Clintons scandals and about Trumps constant screw ups. I don't see any of that stuff moving the needle much anymore. Honestly, I think the ball is in Trumps court. If he does well enough to convince voters he is ready for the job during the debates I would imagine he would win. If he trys to play the same primary debate style then he likely will lose.
Here's an article form Redstate showing how Johnson has (Aug 15) 16% approval among Latinos. Since Trump would be at virtually zero, most of those voters would have been stolen from Hillary.
In 2012 Romney was at 23 percent. So it's not that much of a difference. Romney did so bad with hispanics that there isn't a ton of room left for Trump to fall too. They seem to hover around 12-20 percent though. So he will likely end up somewhere in the middle. That could prove disastrous if it's that tilted in Florida. Or not at all if most of that is coming from CA.
....The polls are definitely tightening and Trump has momentum....if he is able to make some headway with black voters, it's over for Hillary.
That's it right there. Trumps pitch to the inner city Black communities is pervasive. All he need to is pick off 10-12% of the Black vote and it's pretty much over for HC.
Location: In a little house on the prairie - literally
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GearHeadDave
That tactic has been used by the nationalist wing of the conservative movement since the early Reagan days. And it has been successful since they eventually nominated Trump. There are three well divided political groups at this point in time in the US; socialists on the far left, best embodied by Sanders; radical nationalistic right wing embodied by Trump; and centrist Democrats and Republicans in the middle. Reagan was surely a centrist and as such he would have opposed Trump. As time goes on these groups have become more and more separated in their positions. Hard to say what it means for the long term viability of the traditional 2 party system.
This election will go down to the wire - especially with the October surprises in store for Clinton, like the recent extended FBI report on emails. Coming down to a decision between a dangerous deluded huckster and an untrustworthy bureaucrat. Unprecedented. My "prediction" (guess) is that Clinton will win, but not by the margin she is sporting today.
I think that is a pretty safe prediction. Although Clinton is going to have to get back campaigning after the Labor Day long weekend, or her lead will erode until the debates. Personally I think she will walk all over Trump, who won't change the tactics that worked for him in the GOP debates. Different audience, as these are not the party faithful the two need to address, but the severally normal American.
Well lets be fair the Emerson Poll is junk. It weights by past voter id, only surveys landlines, and was created by an undergrad student. It's a bit early to starting adding it to the mix. Hampton University is good but remember that it had the race tied in July when other pollsters had Clinton up by 4 in VA.
B rating from 538. And RCP thinks enough of it the list them on their site. More importantly their numbers aren't really out of line with how a lot of polls are trending. For example, Clinton's lead nationally was around 8 for most of August and now it's around 3. Thus, I'm not really shocked that a state which was tied is now moving toward Trump.
B rating from 538. And RCP thinks enough of it the list them on their site. More importantly their numbers aren't really out of line with how a lot of polls are trending. For example, Clinton's lead nationally was around 8 for most of August and now it's around 3. Thus, I'm not really shocked that a state which was tied is now moving toward Trump.
B rating but it's only ever polled the GOP primary and has a heavy GOP house effect. They also have a very high average error. You have to sometimes delve a bit into their ratings because they aren't just based off of performance but off of transparency as well. RCP adds pretty much every poll to their site the first year the same as 538. They only get removed if they show a consistent lack of accuracy. Being added to the list =/= that the poll has been deeply vetted. They are a little more picky than Nate Silver is but he also adjusted for things and RCP doesn't. So yeah their numbers are off. If Clinton is up 3.9 than it means her lead will reflect that it in the polls. Obviously some states will be more in her favor than others but even places like Iowa will be a dead heat.
That's it right there. Trumps pitch to the inner city Black communities is pervasive. All he need to is pick off 10-12% of the Black vote and it's pretty much over for HC.
He won't. Trump will get the same amount or less of the black vote than Romney did. His success will be based on the white vote and 3rd parties taking more from Clinton than from him.
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Negative 53! Yee Gads!