***National Presidential Polls*** Part III (voters, campaign, Republicans, Clinton)

[sware2cod]

Originally Posted by Bureaucat

On today's "Face The Nation" on CBS, Susan Page of USA Today noted that in 2012 Mitt Romney won college educated voters by 14%. College educated voters have voted Republican in every election since 1956. Current polls show Hillary Clinton leading among college educated whites by 14%; a shift of 28% in just 4 years. She talked with political scientist Alan Abramowitz of Emory University about this shift and he said it if it holds it would be the biggest shift of a demographic group from one election to the next in American political history since the beginning of modern polling era.

More bad news for Trump: The demographic (percentage of overall voters) of college educated voters is increasing and in 2016 will be a larger demographic group then ever before.

[scgraham]

"Trump has closed the gap in a number of swing-states, particularly in the Midwest.

According to the latest Ipsos poll, Trump now leads Clinton in New Hampshire by 1 point, in the all-important bellwether state of Ohio by 3, and in Wisconsin and Michigan by 1 each. Neither state has gone Republican in a presidential election in the last quarter century.

But Trump’s largest lead came in Iowa, where the Ipsos poll showed him up by 3 points. An Emerson poll showed an even larger lead of 5 points, and the RealClearPolitics average now shows Trump leading the state.

According to the Emerson poll Trump has also narrowed the gap in Virginia, home state to Clinton’s running-mate Tim Kaine, a state Obama won in both 2012 and 2008."

Trump leads in Midwest as Clinton hit by new email revelations - US & Canada - News -

[Clark Park]

At this very moment it appears the race is tightening ... at least a little.

Just a reminder - being 1 or 2 points ahead or behind is within the margin of error.

[Misanthrope83]

Originally Posted by scgraham

"Trump has closed the gap in a number of swing-states, particularly in the Midwest.

According to the latest Ipsos poll, Trump now leads Clinton in New Hampshire by 1 point, in the all-important bellwether state of Ohio by 3, and in Wisconsin and Michigan by 1 each. Neither state has gone Republican in a presidential election in the last quarter century.

But Trump’s largest lead came in Iowa, where the Ipsos poll showed him up by 3 points. An Emerson poll showed an even larger lead of 5 points, and the RealClearPolitics average now shows Trump leading the state.

According to the Emerson poll Trump has also narrowed the gap in Virginia, home state to Clinton’s running-mate Tim Kaine, a state Obama won in both 2012 and 2008."

Trump leads in Midwest as Clinton hit by new email revelations - US & Canada - News -

Great news.

[Bureaucat]

Ipsos State by State analysis (as of 9/1/2016)

Since the Ipsos polls mentioned above have Trump moving ahead in the Midwestern battlegrounds, I was interested enough to click on their assessment of the battleground at large.

They currently have it:

Clinton: 273
Trump: 182

Alaska: insufficient data
Arizona: Trump 45-41 (low confidence Trump)
Colorado: Clinton 45-39 (moderate confidence Clinton)
DC: insufficient data
Florida: Clinton 46-43 (low confidence Clinton)
Georgia: Trump 47-41 (moderate confidence Trump)
Hawaii: insufficient data
Iowa: Trump 44-41 (too close to call)
Maine: Tied 44-44 (too close to call)
Michigan: Trump 42-41 (too close to call)
Montana: insufficient data
Nevada: Clinton 43-35 (moderate confidence Clinton)
New Hampshire: Trump 45-44 (too close to call)
New Mexico: insufficient data
North Carolina: Clinton 49-44 (moderate confidence Clinton)
Ohio: Trump 36-33 (low confidence in Trump)
Pennsylvania: 48-42 (moderate confidence Clinton)
Rhode Island: insufficient data
South Carolina: Trump 48-45 (too close to call)
South Dakota: insufficient data
Utah: Trump 35-34 (too close to call)
Virginia: Clinton 50-37 (high confidence for Clinton)
Wisconsin: Tied 37-37 (too close to call)
Wyoming: insufficient data

As you can see, those totals exclude some very partisan states because of "insufficient data" although the reason for "insufficient data" is probably because they are not competitive historically and not deemed worth the expense of polling. If you add DC, Hawaii, New Mexico and Rhode Island to the Clinton column, that brings her to 289 electoral votes. It also doesn't include Maine, which, at least for the balance of the state, isn't generally considered a battleground, so that's another 3 EV to push Clinton to 292. There are some "insufficient data" states lowering Trump as well (Alaska, Montana, South Dakota, Wyoming) worth another 13 to bring Trump to 195. Add South Carolins and Utah to that total, since they're listed as too close to call, and Trump is at 205.

I'm posting this because, Ipsos has been one of the most favorable pollsters for Trump, but when you go through their state by state analysis, it's still a very formidable task that Donald Trump faces in his bid for the White House.

States of the Nation

[lisanicole1]

Why is Florida low confidence Clinton and Iowa to close to call? Same with a few others? All with a 3 point spread?

[Smash255]

Originally Posted by lisanicole1

Why is Florida low confidence Clinton and Iowa to close to call? Same with a few others? All with a 3 point spread?

The Ipsos state polls seem to be broken off from the larger national poll and as such have small sample sizes and larger moe.

[cupper3]

Originally Posted by lisanicole1

Why is Florida low confidence Clinton and Iowa to close to call? Same with a few others? All with a 3 point spread?

I'm going to go with the polls involved historical accuracy.

[marino760]

No doubt Trump has gained a lot of ground. If the trend keeps up, he'll be in a comfortable lead by election day. Hillary needs to make a move or just hand the election over to him.

[AnesthesiaMD]

Originally Posted by marino760

No doubt Trump has gained a lot of ground. If the trend keeps up, he'll be in a comfortable lead by election day. Hillary needs to make a move or just hand the election over to him.

I think the debates will make a difference one way or the other. Trump's advantage is that he only has do do better than expected and he wins. Hillary's advantage is that Trump has a decent chance of saying something he shouldn't say and/or not doing better than expected.

I think they will hit Trump hard on policy inconsistencies, and if they are fair, they will hit Hillary hard on her improprieties and conflicts of interest.