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It is when you cherry pick one questionable poll to say that. It's defiantly moving in Trumps direction but he is only up by 0.8 in Iowa. Trump won't ever have a substantial lead. I've been saying for months that this was most likely going to be close. The two candidates are just way too unlikable to generate landslides. 270-290 is likely where it will end up sitting.
Overall, I agree with you, but there is no need for defiance!
Please leave that type of behavior for the Trumplings.
How can Trump win if he does not get 15% of the Hispanic and Black vote and not 20% of women it is just not possible to win.
IMHO Trump win get 4% to 10% of Hispanic and Black and 14% to 16% Women
I wasn't comparing the two...merely pointing out that if Trump did win NY state (I know he won't), then we would get a similar type landslide....try to follow.
Well yeah obviously. If Trump is winning in NY then he is winning pretty much everywhere.
How can Trump win if he does not get 15% of the Hispanic and Black vote and not 20% of women it is just not possible to win.
IMHO Trump win get 4% to 10% of Hispanic and Black and 14% to 16% Women
These numbers is automatic loss
Hispanic voters are packed into a bunch of non competitive states mostly. Only in Florida do they have a lot of sway. The problem is that just like other southern states with large African American population the White voters in Florida overwhelmingly vote Republican which keeps it as a swing state even though it is slowly trending blue overall. It also depends a lot on turnout as well. If Trump increases white turnout this year and it's tight then that means a lot of close states could be won by him even thought Romney lost them in 2012.
Trump up another 0.5% - now at 31.1% chance of winning according to 538 polls-plus forecast.
Funny how the debate changes with Trump surging. It goes from "he's behind in all the polls....no chance" to "yeah, well it's only one poll...he has no chance" to "that poll, this poll, that poll, this poll and that poll don't count...he has no chance".
Hispanic voters are packed into a bunch of non competitive states mostly. Only in Florida do they have a lot of sway. The problem is that just like other southern states with large African American population the White voters in Florida overwhelmingly vote Republican which keeps it as a swing state even though it is slowly trending blue overall. It also depends a lot on turnout as well. If Trump increases white turnout this year and it's tight then that means a lot of close states could be won by him even thought Romney lost them in 2012.
4 swing states with large latino populations: FL, NV, AZ, CO.
Trump up another 0.5% - now at 31.1% chance of winning according to 538 polls-plus forecast.
Funny how the debate changes with Trump surging. It goes from "he's behind in all the polls....no chance" to "yeah, well it's only one poll...he has no chance" to "that poll, this poll, that poll, this poll and that poll don't count...he has no chance".
It's not really a surge. Neither is "rising" to a whopping 31.1% chance of winning.
The electoral math remains pretty horrible for him and we are days away from the Clinton campaign beginning its final fall push to the election. They are about to be everywhere, all the time. Trump ramped up early because he had to. Now Clinton will counter.
We will see if he can move the needle any a few weeks from now, but it's looking pretty bad for Trump right now.
It's not really a surge. Neither is "rising" to a whopping 31.1% chance of winning.
The electoral math remains pretty horrible for him and we are days away from the Clinton campaign beginning its final fall push to the election. They are about to be everywhere, all the time. Trump ramped up early because he had to. Now Clinton will counter.
We will see if he can move the needle any a few weeks from now, but it's looking pretty bad for Trump right now.
From ~20% to 31% in just a few weeks is nothing less than a surge. That's essentially going from a 1 in 5 chance to 1 in 3. That's significant. And who knows when the momentum will end - within the next week or two he could be pushing 40%+.
As far as "final push" - they've had more advertising, more money, more establishment support, more celeb support, more media support, more ground game, etc, THE WHOLE TIME. Let's just face it, Hillary is a hard pill for people to swallow. It takes exponentially more of everything to keep her competitive.
It's not really a surge. Neither is "rising" to a whopping 31.1% chance of winning.
The electoral math remains pretty horrible for him and we are days away from the Clinton campaign beginning its final fall push to the election. They are about to be everywhere, all the time. Trump ramped up early because he had to. Now Clinton will counter.
We will see if he can move the needle any a few weeks from now, but it's looking pretty bad for Trump right now.
HRC has likely been working on ads, organizing the ground game, raising funds, prepping for the debates, getting ready for the post Labor Day push to the election.
Meanwhile, DT is calling Clinton names, giving speeches in states he has no chance of winning, and bringing on board yet another campaign manager.
...
As far as "final push" - they've had more advertising, more money, more establishment support, more celeb support, more media support, more ground game, etc, THE WHOLE TIME. Let's just face it, Hillary is a hard pill for people to swallow. It takes exponentially more of everything to keep her competitive.
Trump has had far more media support than Clinton and still does today.
Trump could have had more establishment support and more celebrity support if he was a more respectable person. But the GOP establishment had to distance themselves from him so they wouldn't go down with the sinking ship. Trump really wanted celebrities badly and he even bragged about how they were going to be part of the GOP convention. Yet again, his rhetoric alienated celebrities also. Well, he did get Scott Baio.
Trump could have had a better ground game but he was too lazy to raise funds that were needed for a ground game. Rather than putting much effort into fundraising, he simply announced that he was going to do his media appearances and rallies as an alternative. Well, now he doesn't have a ground game. His choice. If missing a ground game is a disadvantage for Trump, then he should have listened to his campaign staff and done the fundraising. Nope, he was too lazy. He didn't want to hear what they had to say, so he fired them.
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