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Unless Donald Trump has suddenly won over the white college graduates he has been tanking with, he's extremely unlikely to win enough battleground states to reach 270 electoral votes.
4 swing states with large latino populations: FL, NV, AZ, CO.
With large Latino populations why are they swing states? Shouldn't they be a shoo in for Hillary? There is something wrong with the theory. If it were true, it makes no sense for Texas to go Republican every time.
With large Latino populations why are they swing states? Shouldn't they be a shoo in for Hillary? There is something wrong with the theory. If it were true, it makes no sense for Texas to go Republican every time.
A swing state by definition means that polls and history are close enough that the vote can go either way. That rules out a shoo-in for Clinton (CO imo is an exception but I digress), and it rules out TX altogether.
In some swing states - notably FL, NV, AZ, NC - the vote/poll is currently close enough that Latinos could easily determine the outcome in this election cycle.
Sam Wang was one of the most accurate predictors in the 2012 election and he did have all the states correct in 2004 and 2008. He's the one early on who called Trumps nomination and disagreed with Nate Silver.
Two critical states for Trump. Unlike Clinton, he has no path to win without at least one of them.
Enough of the PoliSci 101 college polls! Finally a respected, mainstream, pollster is out with something and it is not good for Mr. Trump. Trump is in serious trouble without these two states. Clinton has consistently held the polling lead in both of them for some time now. With Obama, Biden, Sanders, and Clinton hitting the trail next week, the ad blitzes and who knows, maybe a press conference, the writing is on the wall.
Last edited by Ibginnie; 09-04-2016 at 05:45 PM..
Reason: edited quoted post
Enough of the PoliSci 101 college polls! Finally a respected, mainstream, pollster is out with something and it is not good for Mr. Trump. Trump is in serious trouble without these two states. Clinton has consistently held the polling lead in both of them for some time now. With Obama, Biden, Sanders, and Clinton hitting the trail next week, the ad blitzes and who knows, maybe a press conference, the writing is on the wall.
There is no question things have become tighter. With that being said, outside of Emerson's landline only state polls, outside of a couple here and there, the state polls haven't shown the gap closing as much in the states Trump would need as the national polls have. As I mentioned over the last few days right now it looks more like an Obama 2012 margin than 2008 one. However, I do think we might see more clarity over the next week to ten days. Polling is typically a bit light in late August and picks up more after Labor Day, so I think there will probably be a slew of polls out next weekend and into the following week.
With Obama, Biden, Sanders, and Clinton hitting the trail next week, the ad blitzes
It won't be a nation-wide blitz. It doesn't take a crystal ball to know which states they'll ^^^^ be targeting:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255
With that being said, outside of Emerson's landline only state polls, outside of a couple here and there, the state polls haven't shown the gap closing as much in the states Trump would need
On today's "Face The Nation" on CBS, Susan Page of USA Today noted that in 2012 Mitt Romney won college educated voters by 14%. College educated voters have voted Republican in every election since 1956. Current polls show Hillary Clinton leading among college educated whites by 14%; a shift of 28% in just 4 years. She talked with political scientist Alan Abramowitz of Emory University about this shift and he said it if it holds it would be the biggest shift of a demographic group from one election to the next in American political history since the beginning of modern polling era.
Trump has to win college whites back to have a chance of winning. That's why he's making an outreach to minority groups; not in the hope of winning large numbers of minority voters, but to placate the moderate white college grads he has to win back to be competitive, let alone win.
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