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538 now has Trump up to a 33% chance of winning. The numbers just keep getting better for Mr. Trump. Dems better be praying that Assange has nothing and Trump completely bombs in the debate.
Texas a dead heat? Now that's HUGE. What an upset that would be if Clinton pulled off a squeaker in TX. It's not likely, but possible. 538 notes that the Hispanic vote, highly motivated against Trump, is largely concentrated in Texas and California.
Edit: Besides Hispanics, another factor working against Trump is Ted Cruz beat Trump by 500,000 votes. Some of these "NeverTrump" Cruz voters will stay home or vote Clinton.
Last edited by Elliott_CA; 09-06-2016 at 12:44 PM..
Texas a dead heat? Now that's HUGE. What an upset that would be if Clinton pulled off a squeaker in TX. It's not likely, but possible. 538 notes that the Hispanic vote, highly motivated against Trump, is largely concentrated in Texas and California.
Actually, in a two way match with Trump, Clinton led by 3 points, but it settles into a dead even race in the 4-way. I wouldn't hold my breath on that one being accurate in November, but it does show reluctance for Trump. I think they used registered instead of likely voters, so that could be a factor as well.
The one that seems wacky to me is Colorado. Clinton had a lead that she was comfortable enough with to suspend ads and it's loaded with Clinton/Obama coalition type of voters; college grads, younger voters, transplants from California and about 20% Hispanic. I'll be interested on seeing the next poll out of there to see if it's really a horse race.
Texas a dead heat? Now that's HUGE. What an upset that would be if Clinton pulled off a squeaker in TX. It's not likely, but possible. 538 notes that the Hispanic vote, highly motivated against Trump, is largely concentrated in Texas and California.
Edit: Besides Hispanics, another factor working against Trump is Ted Cruz beat Trump by 500,000 votes. Some of these "NeverTrump" Cruz voters will stay home or vote Clinton.
I would not read too much into these Survey Monkey state polls, same for the Ipsos/Reuters ones as well.
It appears they were broken out from the larger national poll, but not exactly weighted on the state level.
PA is not close, with HRC having an 8% lead. I doubt MI will go Trump, and WI is unlikely.
The poster was looking at the polling which has TX close - the same polling also has WI, MI, PA and CO close. And again, this polling was done well before Trump started really gaining in the polls.
While I'm surprised that Texas is a dead heat, that Trump is losing women voters in Texas is not exactly stunning. The anti-abortion stance of Texas Republicans just does not play well with a lot of women.
Forget the name calling, tin foil hat conspiracy theories, and goofy assurances that Trump will fix everything just by announcing it is so, this election will be about abortion. Supreme Court justices, Pence, punishing women who get abortions....
Many women firmly believe that that the government has no business making decisions about birth control and abortions, that government should concern itself with running the nation's business rather butting into theirs.
Hard to imagine Hillary winning if some of those close states like WI, MI and PA break for Trump.
LMAO Trump will never win those states. Get real.
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