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Not a good poll. Online polls usually aren't. The article even admits that they can't calculate a margin of error. Not a very good poll if you can't even do that.
Not a good poll. Online polls usually aren't. The article even admits that they can't calculate a margin of error. Not a very good poll if you can't even do that.
Not a good poll. Online polls usually aren't. The article even admits that they can't calculate a margin of error. Not a very good poll if you can't even do that.
ANY poll that can't even calculate the margin of error is NOT "fine". That's one of the basics of polling.
Ken
They were accurate in 2014, accurate in Brexit, the Scottish referendum, accurate in the 2016 primaries. What most evidence do you need? The idea that they are not accurate is an emotional one based on no hard evidence. The only reason I don't post the UPI poll is because its opt in and some professional analysts question its methodology. They don't yet match the high quality of live caller polls but they aren't as bad as some people are suggesting.
They were accurate in 2014, accurate in Brexit, the Scottish referendum, accurate in the 2016 primaries. What most evidence do you need? The idea that they are not accurate is an emotional one based on no hard evidence. The only reason I don't post the UPI poll is because its opt in and some professional analysts question its methodology. They don't yet match the high quality of live caller polls but they aren't as bad as some people are suggesting.
The Brexit polls HAD a calculable margin of error. The poll I referred to did NOT. My issue wasn't whether it was an online poll or not but rather the fact that the poll in question did NOT have a calculable margin of error (by the articles own admission). If you can't even calculate that margin of error, how do you know it's not HUGE?
The Brexit polls HAD a calculable margin of error. The poll I referred to did NOT. My issue wasn't whether it was an online poll or not but rather the fact that the poll in question did NOT have a calculable margin of error (by the articles own admission). If you can't even calculate that margin of error, how do you know it's not HUGE?
Ken
Margin of error is just a mathematical calculation based on sample size relative to population size. The larger the sample, the smaller the MOE. It is formulaic. You can't use the formula with this poll because they sample 200 each day. That, in itself, would have a huge MOE. But what they do is combine each daily sample with 1200 others from the past six days and publish the findings. It is a bit of smoke and mirrors, to be sure. It is not as questionable as the USC/LA Times poll, but the methodology leaves a lot of room for criticism of the findings.
In any event, a minor change in any poll is not indicative, statistically speaking, of an actual change in public opinion. It's just variance in the sample. So people who post that Trump is surging, or Clinton is falling and vice versa just let everyone know that they do not understand polling. There has not been a statistically significant change in the race since Clinton's convention bounce.
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