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Monmouth poll went from +13 (!!) Clinton down to +7. Seems to be another indicator that Trump is picking up steam.
Just another bad poll for Trump, I'm afraid. The bloom went off the convention rose a bit for Clinton, but those votes did not go to Trump. Trump went from 37 to 39, well withing the MOE of the poll and well short of what he will need to win. The primary beneficiary of Clinton's 4 point slump was Johnson and Stein. They ain't gonna get 9% of the vote between them come November. And Trump can't win with a ceiling of 40% either.
Democrats outnumber Republicans by around 900,000 voters in PA. Had he of worked harder registering people he might of had a shot. At this point that growing gap makes him winning the state very difficult. PA was always going to be a tough flip for him. NH, OH, IA, NV, and FL are more likely for him.
Besides the fact that in the last two years Pennsylvania has been trending more towards the Democrats. A Democrat defeated the incumbent Republican governor in the most recent off year election. Also three state Supreme Court seats were up and it seemed likely that the Republicans would have retained at least one of them, but the Democrats swept all three.
Our only state-wide elected Republican is Sen. Pat Toomey. It is absolutely significant that Toomey, who is behind in the polls, refuses to endorse Trump, boycotted the Republican Convention in Cleveland, and is staying as far away from the Trump campaign as possible. If Trump was popular in the Keystone State would Toomey behave like this?
Pennsylvania is a "blue" state ... although a light blue one.
Polls Plus- Clinton by 4.1% with a 74.1% chance of winning. She wins all of the Obama 2012 states + N.C (by a razor thin margin) & NE-2
Polls Only- Clinton by 6.1% with a 78.5% chance of winning. Same Obama 08 states + NC & NE-2, though the margins although close, not as narrow
Now Cast- Clinton by 5.7%, 78.4% chance of winning. Same Obama 08 states + NC & NE-2, Iowa is quite close
Currently the three models are all within basically 4-6 point Clinton PV victory and all show the same states being won by Clinton and by Trump. Slight variations between the margins and confidence in some states in each model. Johnson's margins also vary a bit in each model (6.4, 7.8 & 8.6) based off different variations on how the third party vote is tallied within the three models.
Just another bad poll for Trump, I'm afraid. The bloom went off the convention rose a bit for Clinton, but those votes did not go to Trump. Trump went from 37 to 39, well withing the MOE of the poll and well short of what he will need to win. The primary beneficiary of Clinton's 4 point slump was Johnson and Stein. They ain't gonna get 9% of the vote between them come November. And Trump can't win with a ceiling of 40% either.
Johnson and Stein were at 7% and 2% in both polls. How did they benefit?
Johnson and Stein were at 7% and 2% in both polls. How did they benefit?
Johnson and Stein have remained pretty consistent since June. Nate Silver said that after this point they usually only lose a couple of points before election day. So we can expect that Stein will likely get maybe 1-2 points and Johnson will get 5-7 I imagine.
Pennsylvania Clinton 48, Trump 40, Johnson 6, Stein 2
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