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The US presidential election is not a basketball game. No modern candidate who has trailed behind his opponent for weeks after the conventions has gone on to win the presidency.
Maybe but this election has been anything but conventional.
The US presidential election is not a basketball game. No modern candidate who has trailed behind his opponent for weeks after the conventions has gone on to win the presidency.
And if there was ever a first time for that to happen IT IS NOW and Hillary IS the candidate for it to happen to. She's not your typical low baggage healthy candidate that can nurse a lead. DNC is in panic mode right now and Hillary supporters think it's a business as usual election - funny really.
Trump is like a basketball team that just cut a 20 point lead to 2 with 3 minutes left on the clock. He has the momentum on his side and his opponent continues to collapse (literally) and do the wrong thing at every opportunity (basket of deplorables).
Trump picked up momentum and cut into the lwad. However, it has also stabalized over the last two weeks as Clinton's chances as per the three 538 models have been within a few points of 70% range.
I'm sorry but the media would not be reporting a two way match up if Hillary Clinton didn't look better than Trump in the make believe two way race rather than the actual 4 way.
I'm not sure if the pollsters are in the tank for Clinton. I don't think they are. I think they report results based on two poll questions (with and without Stein/Johnson) so they can choose which one makes them look more accurate the day after Election Day. I call that "cheating" for the purpose of making more money and getting more publicity not cheating to make Clinton look better.
But what's the media's excuse for making a fictitious two way contest more important in their news story. Yes, the real race is between Clinton and Trump but it should be reported only with the 4 candidates because Johnson and Stein do have an impact on the Clinton vs Trump numbers.
Stu Rothnberg: "Clinton's Narrow Lead Bigger Than It Looks"
We live in partisan times where relatively few swing voters are up for grabs. That's the gist of the article. Here's the percentage of the vote that the D nominee has won in the last 4 elections in swing states.
"But being ‘close’ isn’t the same thing as saying a state is a ‘toss up’ or both candidates have the same chance of winning it.”
“And because of that, the Clinton-Trump race can be both ‘competitive’ and even ‘close’ in a state and nationally, but at the same time clearly favor one nominee – in this case Clinton.” ."
I'm sorry but the media would not be reporting a two way match up if Hillary Clinton didn't look better than Trump in the make believe two way race rather than the actual 4 way.
I'm not sure if the pollsters are in the tank for Clinton. I don't think they are. I think they report results based on two poll questions (with and without Stein/Johnson) so they can choose which one makes them look more accurate the day after Election Day. I call that "cheating" for the purpose of making more money and getting more publicity not cheating to make Clinton look better.
But what's the media's excuse for making a fictitious two way contest more important in their news story. Yes, the real race is between Clinton and Trump but it should be reported only with the 4 candidates because Johnson and Stein do have an impact on the Clinton vs Trump numbers.
I think one of the factors regarding the two way abd four way polling is third party candidates have typically polled better than Election Day results so it might be to protect against that. Also Stein isn't on the ballot in every state, Johnson is.
I think one of the factors regarding the two way abd four way polling is third party candidates have typically polled better than Election Day results so it might be to protect against that. Also Stein isn't on the ballot in every state, Johnson is.
I believe someone earlier touched on Silver commenting that by this time in the race, 3rd parties won't be dropping much from where they're currently polling.
Stu Rothnberg: "Clinton's Narrow Lead Bigger Than It Looks"
We live in partisan times where relatively few swing voters are up for grabs. That's the gist of the article. Here's the percentage of the vote that the D nominee has won in the last 4 elections in swing states.
I would prefer a landslide election result in her favor but if its close, Trump has ZERO ground game. He has no GOTV operation in any of the toss-up states. He is running his campaign ground game like his private business model and unfortunately for him and his supporters claiming bankruptcy won't win him the White House.
I would prefer a landslide election result in her favor but if its close, Trump has ZERO ground game. He has no GOTV operation in any of the toss-up states. He is running his campaign ground game like his private business model and unfortunately for him and his supporters claiming bankruptcy won't win him the White House.
Ground game is worth about 2 points in the poll. A lot of her money isn't being spent on ads like Trumps, instead it is going to local campaign staffs and the ground game. These staffers register people to vote and arrange for them to have transportation to vote and make sure they are reminded to vote.
I would go in and honestly add 2 points to her poll numbers in states because Trump has no ground game to speak of.
Ground game is worth about 2 points in the poll. A lot of her money isn't being spent on ads like Trumps, instead it is going to local campaign staffs and the ground game. These staffers register people to vote and arrange for them to have transportation to vote and make sure they are reminded to vote.
I would go in and honestly add 2 points to her poll numbers in states because Trump has no ground game to speak of.
Hahahaha - a spin on "the polls are rigged" that Trump supporters have been bashed for. Hillary has the silent 2% to combat Trump's silent 4%.
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