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Look at the percentage to win - Trump is mid-high 40s - thus, based on his model you can't really say "it's a Clinton win". It's essentially too close to call. Imagine putting 11 red balls and 9 blue balls in a hat - would you say definitely that I'm going to draw out a red ball? It's basically a coin toss at this point.
Hillary is in trouble.....she has been running since 2005, the media is on her side and she has spent 5 times more than Trump and she is trending down at the wrong time.
This election cycle is anti-establishment.....that means Hillary has to be polling better now because once the election gets closer by October her numbers will drop.
538's now cast has Trump with 262.2 electoral votes and Clinton with 275.0. 50/50 race at this point.
Trump is 62.1% to win NC and that's without the latest PPP poll factored in.
39.3% to win NH.
60.0% to win NV
32.5% to win WI
32.4% to win MA
59.3% to win FL
66.8% to win OH
76.2% to win IA
41.7% to win CO
81.5% to win AZ
Looks like he has a pretty good chance of going Romney states + FL, OH, NV and NH. However, he could lose NH and pick up CO.
39.3% to win NH. Clinton has led in the last 3 polls by plus 5...
60.0% to win NV Nevada is a tricky state to poll as the dems have performed plus 5 compared to the polls for the last 10 years due to hispanic turnout and polling issues with them.
32.5% to win WI Clinton by 5.3
32.4% to win MA Clinton will win 3 of the 4 electoral votes.
59.3% to win FL I have said multiple times in this thread about how hard Florida is to poll. It's a tossup with about 100,000 votes. It's really 3 different states and with it's population of over 20 million a 700 polling sample doesn't cut it. A sample of 5,000 weighted among districts, and having a bi-lingual speaker do the polling would be a good poll.
66.8% to win OH Trump has a 1.2 lead currently.
76.2% to win IA Trump by 4.3
41.7% to win CO Clinton by 3.7, there is the Emerson poll which is a complete garbage poll done only by landline which screws the average up by quite a bit. If you exclude that then it's Clinton by 7.5
81.5% to win AZ Trump by 1.6.
If I give you all the states that are close and has trump leading he still looses. He has to flip a state that Clinton is leading in by over 5 points.
Okay, let's see what has changed from when I posted this (last poll ended on 9/18). Of 16 states, there were 9 within the margin of error/a statistical tie (Arizona, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire and North Carolina). There were 5 with Clinton or Trump in the lead (Colorado - T, Iowa - T, Pennsylvania - C, Minnesota - C, Missouri - T). There was one tie (Florida). There was one state (Wisconsin) with no polling in September.
UPDATE 9/21/16: Monmouth polled New Hampshire and Florida since this was first posted. This latest poll shows Clinton is ahead in both states and outside the margin of error in both so of the 16, there are now 8 within the margin of error/statistically tied and 7 outside of the margin of error with Clinton having 4 and Trump having 3. Wisconsin is still unknown.
Polling will only be shown when it includes Johnson and Stein (if she's on the ballot) in that state. NO TWO WAY! It will only reflect the pollsters cleared as legit by Real Clear Politics.
Latest Poll (not average) for Key States. The 3 in parenthesis means Jill Stein must not be on the ballot. The 4 means all 4 candidates' impact. The date is the last day of the poll.
UPDATE:
Technically a statistical tie (within margin of error)
Arizona (NBC/WSJ/Marist) (4) (9/8) Trump +1
There is no update for Arizona
Georgia (Monmouth) (3) (9/18) Trump +3
There is no update for Georgia.
Maine (MPRC) (4) (9/17) Clinton +0.3
There is no update for Maine
Michigan (Detroit Free Press) (4) (9/13) Clinton +4
There is no update for Michigan
Ohio (Suffolk) (4) (9/14) Trump +3
There is no update for Ohio
Virginia (University of Mary Washington) (4) (9/12) Clinton +3
There is no update for Virginia
Nevada (KTNV/Rasmussen) (3) (9/18) Trump +3
There is no update for Nevada
North Carolina (Elon) (3) (9/16) Trump +1
There is no update for North Carolina.
------------
Outside Margin of Error
Colorado (Emerson) (4) (9/13) Trump +4
There is no update For Colorado.
Iowa (Monmouth) (4) (9/14) Trump +8
There is no update for Iowa
Pennsylvania (Morning Call) (4) (9/16) Clinton +9
There is no update for Pennsylvania
Minnesota (Star Tribune) (4) (9/14) Clinton +6
There is no update for Minnesota
Missouri (Emerson) (4) (9/13) Trump +13
There is no update for Missouri
41.7% to win CO Clinton by 3.7, there is the Emerson poll which is a complete garbage poll done only by landline which screws the average up by quite a bit. If you exclude that then it's Clinton by 7.5
.
so a poll is garbage because shows Hillary losing? lol
Denver Post reported new poll from Reuters showing Trump leading in Colorado, is that complete garbage too?
Hillary is NOT famous in Colorado, she lost to Obama by over 30% in 2008 and lost to Bernie in 2016 by 20%........if the Bernie voters don't turnout in high numbers for Hillary, she is in trouble in Colorado.
Projected swing state election turnout by demographic group
Back in the summer of 2015, Dave Wasserman of Cook Political made forecasts of the electorate of 2016 based upon the 2012 election exit polls and on the rate of demographic change. They may turn out to be prophetic, or decidedly off, but it's interesting to me to compare how the swing states match up with each other, and how they are polling now. If you look at the states that Trump is surging the most now, it is in states relatively high percentages of non-college whites and/or few minorities. Conversely, if you look at states favoring Clinton, they're more likely to have higher percentages of college grads/ minorities.
so a poll is garbage because shows Hillary losing? lol
Denver Post reported new poll from Reuters showing Trump leading in Colorado, is that complete garbage too?
Hillary is NOT famous in Colorado, she lost to Obama by over 30% in 2008 and lost to Bernie in 2016 by 20%........if the Bernie voters don't turnout in high numbers for Hillary, she is in trouble in Colorado.
It's a very questionable poll as only land lines where polled. As the poll is scewed to older voters who are more likely to vote for Trump. Every other poll in Colorado has her with a lead outside of the margin of error.
The number of Americans who rely only on a cellphone for their telephone service continues to grow. Fully 43% of U.S. adults live in a household with a cellphone and no landline phone, according to new government data for the first half of 2014. That’s up four percentage points from just six months earlier. According to an extrapolation by Pew Research Center, an estimated 46.5% of adults are cell-only today.
To keep pace with this rapid trend, the Pew Research Center will increase the percentage of respondents interviewed on cellphones in its typical national telephone surveys to 65%; 35% of interviews will be conducted by landline. Last year, we increased the ratio to 60% cellphone, with 40% conducted on landline. Back in 2008, when we first started routinely including cellphones in our phone surveys, just one-fourth (25%) of all interviews were done by cellphone.
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There is no "even he"
