Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire these are the five most likely to flip with the democrat up by several points at a minimum.
Nevada is the only worry for the democrats where Heck has been up by one or 2 points in almost every poll.
Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and Iowa should all come down to election night.
This is where the wave phenomenon and coattails come in. If Clinton wins by 8 or more then the coattails get bigger and Republicans start to stay home.
This was very interesting out of the polls yesterday by Marist...
Note that Marist tested registered voters while both PPP and Marquette looked at likely voters. But there's something very interesting going on when comparing voter screens. Marquette also provided data on what registered voters think, and they're slightly more favorable for Republicans: Feingold leads 47-38, while Clinton's up 42-33. By the same token, Marist offered breakdowns for respondents who say they'll "definitely" vote in November. This group was more bullish for Democrats: Among them, Grassley's up just 48-47 and Portman 47-43, while McGinty's lead stretches to 51-44. Clinton's margins are also wider in every case.
This is very atypical. Usually, the tighter a pollster screens, the better the numbers look for Republican candidates, simply because Republican voters are historically more likely to vote. But both Marist and Marquette see the opposite happening. That suggests there's an enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans, possibly because Republicans are particularly depressed about Donald Trump, or because Democrats are particularly scared of him, or both. If this proves to be a nationwide phenomenon that continues through Election Day, it'll be a rough experience for the GOP
That's the one worrying sign for Trump. GOP members, focus groups, and poll responders expect him to lose. That's not exactly an inspiring sign when you need to get the base out. The Walmart moms focus group pretty much summed it up perfectly. Hillary is a corrupt liar and Trump is a two year old. They don't trust Hillary as far as they could throw her but Trump legitimately scares them.
South Carolina is similar to North Carolina and Virginia. It has that age divide that slowly is tilting it towards the blue. Basically what 538 has been saying for awhile. MI,MN,IA, and PA are trending red. OH,NC,SC,FL, and GA are trending blue. They also said that if polling comes out favorable to Clinton in Georgia that she will likely win South Carolina as well. Since their demographics are comparable roughly.
South Carolina is similar to North Carolina and Virginia. It has that age divide that slowly is tilting it towards the blue. Basically what 538 has been saying for awhile. MI,MN,IA, and PA are trending red. OH,NC,SC,FL, and GA are trending blue. They also said that if polling comes out favorable to Clinton in Georgia that she will likely win South Carolina as well. Since their demographics are comparable roughly.
SC is making a slow trend, but not near what has happened in VA, NC or even GA. There is movement, but doesn't have nearly the metro areas that have carried the movement in VA, NC or even GA. I can see GA flipping, SC would take something a bit more.
SC is making a slow trend, but not near what has happened in VA, NC or even GA. There is movement, but doesn't have nearly the metro areas that have carried the movement in VA, NC or even GA. I can see GA flipping, SC would take something a bit more.
It probably will. Trump is just showing that potential 3 elections early is all.
South Carolina is similar to North Carolina and Virginia. It has that age divide that slowly is tilting it towards the blue. Basically what 538 has been saying for awhile. MI,MN,IA, and PA are trending red. OH,NC,SC,FL, and GA are trending blue. They also said that if polling comes out favorable to Clinton in Georgia that she will likely win South Carolina as well. Since their demographics are comparable roughly.
"MI,MN,IA and PA are trending red"
Are you saying the demographics are trending red or the polling?
Are you saying the demographics are trending red or the polling?
The demographics are trending red. The rural regions are turning red faster than the suburban regions are turning blue. It's why at the beginning of the season they gave Trump a shot in WI and PA. His populist message along with the increase in GOP registration in those states made them potential flips. Obviously no one expected him to do so poorly among suburban and urban voters though. It all comes down to the registration gap. In places like CO the Democrats have made gains. But in places like PA the GOP has made gains. That's also where a strong ground game helps you as well. You can push a good GOTV operation in conjunction with the national and state parties. Registering new voters, finding rides for ones that can't get to the polls, helping them get absentee ballots, selling your candidate, etc etc etc etc. Trump has no real state level operations so that leaves it entirely out of his hands.
What I meant was they might already be red or blue but the trend towards light blue/red to solid blue/red is more in the GOPs favor in those areas.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
