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The demographics are trending red. The rural regions are turning red faster than the suburban regions are turning blue. It's why at the beginning of the season they gave Trump a shot in WI and PA. His populist message along with the increase in GOP registration in those states made them potential flips. Obviously no one expected him to do so poorly among suburban and urban voters though. It all comes down to the registration gap. In places like CO the Democrats have made gains. But in places like PA the GOP has made gains. That's also where a strong ground game helps you as well. You can push a good GOTV operation in conjunction with the national and state parties. Registering new voters, finding rides for ones that can't get to the polls, helping them get absentee ballots, selling your candidate, etc etc etc etc. Trump has no real state level operations so that leaves it entirely out of his hands.
It would help if he had a populist message.
His whole campaign is built around..
Bomb Isis
Bar Muslims
Deport those dirty Mexicans
Hillary's a crook, I don't know how she is a crook but trust me.
South Carolina is similar to North Carolina and Virginia. It has that age divide that slowly is tilting it towards the blue. Basically what 538 has been saying for awhile. MI,MN,IA, and PA are trending red. OH,NC,SC,FL, and GA are trending blue. They also said that if polling comes out favorable to Clinton in Georgia that she will likely win South Carolina as well. Since their demographics are comparable roughly.
Here are the trendlines of those states, first with the margin by the winning party and then how that margin compares to the national performance of the candidate that won the state. Ex: In 2000, Democratic candidate Al Gore carried Michigan by 5.2%, which was 4.7% better than his 0.5% national margin.
MICHIGAN
2000, Democratic by 5.2% (+4.7%
2004, Democratic by 3.4% (+5.8%)
2008, Democratic by 16.4% (+8.6%)
2012, Democratic by 9.5% (+5.6%)
Except for Obama's outlier defeat of McCain in the state in 2008, Michigan has consistently been roughly 5% more Democratic than the country as a whole.
MINNESOTA
2000, Democratic by 4.4% (+3.9%)
2004, Democratic by 3.5% (+5.9%)
2008, Democratic by 11.2% (+3.4%)
2012, Democratic by 7.7% (+3.4%)
As you can see, Minnesota is not trending red.
IOWA
2000, Democratic by 0.3% (-0.2%)
2004, Republican by 0.7% (-1.7%)
2008, Democratic by 9.5% (+2.3%)
2012, Democratic by 5.8% (+2.1%)
Since 2004 Iowa has consistently tracked 2% more Democratic than the nation as a whole.
PENNSYLVANIA
2000, Democratic by 4.4% (+3.9%)
2004, Democratic by 2.5% (+4.9%)
2008, Democratic by 10.3% (+2.5%)
2012, Democratic by 5.4% (+1.5%)
Now here we might be seeing some gradual movement in the red direction. If we extrapolate the above numbers to 2016, we might expect Pennsylvania to track about half a percent bluer than the national vote - which means trump has to win the popular vote to take it.
As for 538, I can only speak to Minnesota - I don't know where 538 ever asserted that it is trending red. Oh, to be sure it's a state that Republicans have been convinced they can poach 'next time'... for over two decades now. What 538 has pointed out is that Democratic strength since 2000 is increasing among white voters with college degrees - and that's where growth in Minnesota is concentrated, in the Twin Cities suburbs.
Here are the trendlines of those states, first with the margin by the winning party and then how that margin compares to the national performance of the candidate that won the state. Ex: In 2000, Democratic candidate Al Gore carried Michigan by 5.2%, which was 4.7% better than his 0.5% national margin.
MICHIGAN
2000, Democratic by 5.2% (+4.7%
2004, Democratic by 3.4% (+5.8%)
2008, Democratic by 16.4% (+8.6%)
2012, Democratic by 9.5% (+5.6%)
Except for Obama's outlier defeat of McCain in the state in 2008, Michigan has consistently been roughly 5% more Democratic than the country as a whole.
MINNESOTA
2000, Democratic by 4.4% (+3.9%)
2004, Democratic by 3.5% (+5.9%)
2008, Democratic by 11.2% (+3.4%)
2012, Democratic by 7.7% (+3.4%)
As you can see, Minnesota is not trending red.
IOWA
2000, Democratic by 0.3% (-0.2%)
2004, Republican by 0.7% (-1.7%)
2008, Democratic by 9.5% (+2.3%)
2012, Democratic by 5.8% (+2.1%)
Since 2004 Iowa has consistently tracked 2% more Democratic than the nation as a whole.
PENNSYLVANIA
2000, Democratic by 4.4% (+3.9%)
2004, Democratic by 2.5% (+4.9%)
2008, Democratic by 10.3% (+2.5%)
2012, Democratic by 5.4% (+1.5%)
Now here we might be seeing some gradual movement in the red direction. If we extrapolate the above numbers to 2016, we might expect Pennsylvania to track about half a percent bluer than the national vote - which means trump has to win the popular vote to take it.
As for 538, I can only speak to Minnesota - I don't know where 538 ever asserted that it is trending red. Oh, to be sure it's a state that Republicans have been convinced they can poach 'next time'... for over two decades now. What 538 has pointed out is that Democratic strength since 2000 is increasing among white voters with college degrees - and that's where growth in Minnesota is concentrated, in the Twin Cities suburbs.
Essentially, Mr. Priebus informed Mr. Trump that if he doesn't get his house in order, then the GOP will essentially abandon him, and concentrate on 'down ticket' elections. Mr. Trump, however, denies all, and said that things are going swimmingly.
I will add that the article refers to the 'internal polling' the party does. As I have said before, the private polling each party conducts is relied on by the parties very much. I suspect the RNC's own polling is as alarming as the public polls, and indicate that the GOP may be facing a bigly (big league) defeat come November.
Essentially, Mr. Priebus informed Mr. Trump that if he doesn't get his house in order, then the GOP will essentially abandon him, and concentrate on 'down ticket' elections. Mr. Trump, however, denies all, and said that things are going swimmingly.
I will add that the article refers to the 'internal polling' the party does. As I have said before, the private polling each party conducts is relied on by the parties very much. I suspect the RNC's own polling is as alarming as the public polls, and indicate that the GOP may be facing a bigly (big league) defeat come November.
I think I read the article yesterday and meant to mention it. If the internal polling is horrible then the party has to make a strategic decision on whether to concentrate on winnable races vs. lost causes.
Essentially, Mr. Priebus informed Mr. Trump that if he doesn't get his house in order, then the GOP will essentially abandon him, and concentrate on 'down ticket' elections. Mr. Trump, however, denies all, and said that things are going swimmingly.
I will add that the article refers to the 'internal polling' the party does. As I have said before, the private polling each party conducts is relied on by the parties very much. I suspect the RNC's own polling is as alarming as the public polls, and indicate that the GOP may be facing a bigly (big league) defeat come November.
I'm pretty sure that's going to start happening soon honestly.
If the GOP can retain 48 or 49 senate seats, they'll be in an excellent position for 2018 still, when the map is horrible for the democrats, defending 24 seats, mostly in purple/red states, plus they would be the incumbent party.
If the GOP can retain 48 or 49 senate seats, they'll be in an excellent position for 2018 still, when the map is horrible for the democrats, defending 24 seats, mostly in purple/red states, plus they would be the incumbent party.
Yeah, that's a definite. Unless the GOP brand sustains some long term damage due to Trump that is. Then maybe they will have some issues.
Essentially, Mr. Priebus informed Mr. Trump that if he doesn't get his house in order, then the GOP will essentially abandon him, and concentrate on 'down ticket' elections. Mr. Trump, however, denies all, and said that things are going swimmingly.
I will add that the article refers to the 'internal polling' the party does. As I have said before, the private polling each party conducts is relied on by the parties very much. I suspect the RNC's own polling is as alarming as the public polls, and indicate that the GOP may be facing a bigly (big league) defeat come November.
Trump said on CNBC today that he ain't changing. He is going to continue with what he has been doing and saying.
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