***National Presidential Polls*** Part III (Representatives, politician, 2010, constitutional)

[Daywalk]

Can't believe North Carolina is looking more blue than Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada. Right now these 4 states are the ones trump may still be able to carry.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by ~HecateWhisperCat~

I think Johnson will do very well in states that look to be a blowout honestly.

He might even triple the vote he got last time.

[~HecateWhisperCat~]

Originally Posted by Daywalk

Can't believe North Carolina is looking more blue than Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada. Right now these 4 states are the ones trump may still be able to carry.

She is winning college voters and minorities by decent margins. That helps put NC in play.

[db108108]

Originally Posted by ~HecateWhisperCat~

NBC/Marist

CO Clinton 41, Trump 29, Johnson 15, Stein 6
FL Clinton 41, Trump 36, Johnson 9, Stein 4
NC Clinton 45, Trump 36, Johnson 9, Stein 2
VA Clinton 43, Trump 31, Johnson 12, Stein 5

Totally going to need those NC numbers replicated somewhere else before I buy them.

Wow.

[Bureaucat]

Franklin & Marshall Poll

White Women (Non-College)

Clinton 43%
Trump 39%
Other 7%
Not Sure 11%

White Women College Graduates

Clinton 68%
Trump 21%
Other 3%
Not Sure 8%

* as per "Morning Joe" graphic on 8/12/2016

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by Daywalk

Can't believe North Carolina is looking more blue than Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada. Right now these 4 states are the ones trump may still be able to carry.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...lastic-states/

[florida.bob]

The term "Wave" is looming larger in my mind.

[Unsettomati]

Originally Posted by Daywalk

Can't believe North Carolina is looking more blue than Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada. Right now these 4 states are the ones trump may still be able to carry.

I think the factor there is that demographic changes in North Carolina are causing the state to become blue at a much faster rate than those other states. IA and OH are largely static, politically. NV is a bellwether state - it's only voted for the loser of the Presidential election once in the last century, the only state to accomplish that feat (1976, it went for Ford). FL is growing fast and may be drifting blue, but only slowly.

North Carolina? The population there is booming in Charlotte and the Research Triangle, and its largely driven by young liberal transplants from elsewhere.

Basically, North Carolina is about a decade behind Virginia regarding shifting political demographics. And Virginia has gone from Obama carrying it by 1% less than he carried the country as a whole in 2008 to carrying it by exactly his national margin in 2012. In 2013, for the first time in 40 years, the party that controls the White House also won the Virginia gubernatorial campaign when Terry McAuliffe ran an unabashedly liberal campaign. Now pretty much everyone understands that Virginia is on the bluer side of purple. North Carolina is following the same pattern.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Today's latest poll is the Los Angeles Times/USC daily tracking poll, which has Clinton 46%, Trump 42%. What's remarkable is that this poll has been consistently the most pro-Trump pollster the past few months. In other words, even by cherry-picking the Trumpiest poll of them all, we still see Clinton beating Trump as badly as Obama beat Romney in 2012!
http://www.latimes.com/politics/

[~HecateWhisperCat~]

Originally Posted by Unsettomati

I think the factor there is that demographic changes in North Carolina are causing the state to become blue at a much faster rate than those other states. IA and OH are largely static, politically. NV is a bellwether state - it's only voted for the loser of the Presidential election once in the last century, the only state to accomplish that feat (1976, it went for Ford). FL is growing fast and may be drifting blue, but only slowly.

North Carolina? The population there is booming in Charlotte and the Research Triangle, and its largely driven by young liberal transplants from elsewhere.

Basically, North Carolina is about a decade behind Virginia regarding shifting political demographics. And Virginia has gone from Obama carrying it by 1% less than he carried the country as a whole in 2008 to carrying it by exactly his national margin in 2012. In 2013, for the first time in 40 years, the party that controls the White House also won the Virginia gubernatorial campaign when Terry McAuliffe ran an unabashedly liberal campaign. Now pretty much everyone understands that Virginia is on the bluer side of purple. North Carolina is following the same pattern.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Today's latest poll is the Los Angeles Times/USC daily tracking poll, which has Clinton 46%, Trump 42%. What's remarkable is that this poll has been consistently the most pro-Trump pollster the past few months. In other words, even by cherry-picking the Trumpiest poll of them all, we still see Clinton beating Trump as badly as Obama beat Romney in 2012!
Politics - Los Angeles Times

I think Trump is simply going to accelerate it is all.

[TristramShandy]

To go along with Colorado by 14 and Virginia by 13.

Polls: Clinton Running the Table in Key Battlegrounds - NBC News