Blue wave under Trump (house seat, unemployment, Putin, wages)

[Smash255]

Originally Posted by bellhead

Two more bad polls for republicans today. Both Brown & Cordray are up by numbers outside the error of margin on the latest Suffolk poll. These are the big two statewide races this year, if the Dems win the governor's race then they will hold a key spot on redistricting in 2020.

Ohio Senate - Renacci vs. Brown Suffolk Brown 53, Renacci 37 Brown +16
Ohio Governor - DeWine vs. Cordray Suffolk Cordray 43, DeWine 36 Cordray +7

Trump's approval rating also dropped below 40%..

Polls for the Governor's race have been back and forth, Brown on the other hand has had a constant lead by a comfortable margin.

[nmnita]

Originally Posted by James Bond 007

Let us repeat again: Saying "Keep America Great Again" makes absolutely no logical or grammatical sense whatsoever. You do not "keep" something "again." You can do something again, and you can "Make America Greater," or maybe "Make America Even Greater," but it makes no sense to say you're going to "keep" something "again." The fact you keep repeating this indicates you don't care if you make yourself look a bit on the illiterate side of things, which is exactly what you're doing.

my oh my, aren't you nit picking a bit. Not everyone uses perfect English but that does not make them illiterate. Now, what does your comment about someone's use of words have to do with the topic about whether or not the blue wave is growing?

[MAGAalot]

Originally Posted by bellhead

Two more bad polls for republicans today. Both Brown & Cordray are up by numbers outside the error of margin on the latest Suffolk poll. These are the big two statewide races this year, if the Dems win the governor's race then they will hold a key spot on redistricting in 2020.

Ohio Senate - Renacci vs. Brown Suffolk Brown 53, Renacci 37 Brown +16
Ohio Governor - DeWine vs. Cordray Suffolk Cordray 43, DeWine 36 Cordray +7

Trump's approval rating also dropped below 40%..

The latest polls have Trump at 49% (Rasmussen) and 45% (Economist/YouGov).
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...oval-6179.html

[bellhead]

Bunch of polls released today pretty much backing up yesterdays polls in Ohio. TV & Radio ad execs are probably not happy with this news as it looks like Brown has a commanding lead & the GOP will probably not spend money on this race. Also Cordray is up outside the margin or error when averaging polls. Dewine will probably hold him to single digits the entire race.

Ohio Senate - Renacci vs. Brown Quinnipiac Brown 51, Renacci 34 Brown +17
Ohio Senate - Renacci vs. Brown Suffolk Brown 53, Renacci 37 Brown +16
Ohio Governor - DeWine vs. Cordray Quinnipiac Cordray 42, DeWine 40 Cordray +2
Ohio Governor - DeWine vs. Cordray Suffolk Cordray 43, DeWine 36 Cordray +7

Trumps approval/disapproval ratings. Probably have to throw Rasmussen off of this as they have trump at a tie, but everyone else at a minimum has him -11...

President Trump Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 49, Disapprove 49 Tie
President Trump Job Approval Reuters/Ipsos Approve 43, Disapprove 54 Disapprove +11
President Trump Job Approval PPP (D) Approve 39, Disapprove 54 Disapprove +15

Democrats can't seem to get the double digit lead they need for the generic congressional vote.
2018 Generic Congressional Vote Economist/YouGov Democrats 43, Republicans 37 Democrats +6
2018 Generic Congressional Vote Rasmussen Reports Democrats 44, Republicans 40 Democrats +4
2018 Generic Congressional Vote Reuters/Ipsos Democrats 45, Republicans 35 Democrats +10
2018 Generic Congressional Vote PPP (D) Democrats 46, Republicans 40 Democrats +6

[workingclasshero]

Originally Posted by emm74

I already know Russia hacked the election - there is already plenty of evidence on that. The open question is whether or not the Trump campaign was directly involved with it.

There is zero evidence that non-citizens voted.

And the last time I checked, CA and NY were still part of the United States so I have no idea what you think your comment is supposed to demonstrate. We all know that the President is not elected by popular vote. It remains a factual statement that Trump lost the popular vote by about 3 million votes.

there is ZERO evidence that Russia (or any other country ) HACKED the election... nada.... NOT ONE VOTE was changed


there is plenty of evidence that illegals vote, especially in California, where they GIVE illegals a license

to vote all they need is a license

and

they are GIVEN A drivers license...that is a benefit
Undocumented immigrant driver
Undocumented immigrant driver
Nearly a million undocumented drivers could be licensed in California by the end of the year.
Through June 2017, the Department of Motor Vehicles has issued approximately 905,000 driver’s licenses under Assembly Bill 60, the law requiring applicants to prove only their identity and California residency, rather than their legal presence in the state.


from 2014
New laws in 2015 to benefit undocumented immigrants – Orange County Register
http://www.ocregister.com/2014/12/29...ed-immigrants/
From the state government, there’s more:
• Access to a low-cost auto insurance program to assist unauthorized immigrants who will be eligible beginning Jan. 2 to apply for a California driver’s license;
• A new California DREAM loan program at the University of California and California State University systems;
driver’s licenses, education, health care, free housing and free natal care including birthing going to the illegals

[dspguy]

Keep in mind that Democrats need to win nationally by something like 3-4% just to break even in the House (thanks, gerrymandering). So, even if the generic ballot which is what we are talking about here did say Dems +4, that's still only a 50/50 shot, at best.

[bellhead]

Originally Posted by dspguy

Keep in mind that Democrats need to win nationally by something like 3-4% just to break even in the House (thanks, gerrymandering). So, even if the generic ballot which is what we are talking about here did say Dems +4, that's still only a 50/50 shot, at best.

Agree it's somewhere around 5 to 8% right now, Ideally they need a double digit lead going into the mid-terms.

[nmnita]

Originally Posted by workingclasshero

there is ZERO evidence that Russia (or any other country ) HACKED the election... nada.... NOT ONE VOTE was changed


there is plenty of evidence that illegals vote, especially in California, where they GIVE illegals a license

to vote all they need is a license

and

they are GIVEN A drivers license...that is a benefit
Undocumented immigrant driver
Undocumented immigrant driver
Nearly a million undocumented drivers could be licensed in California by the end of the year.
Through June 2017, the Department of Motor Vehicles has issued approximately 905,000 driver’s licenses under Assembly Bill 60, the law requiring applicants to prove only their identity and California residency, rather than their legal presence in the state.


from 2014
New laws in 2015 to benefit undocumented immigrants – Orange County Register
http://www.ocregister.com/2014/12/29...ed-immigrants/
From the state government, there’s more:
• Access to a low-cost auto insurance program to assist unauthorized immigrants who will be eligible beginning Jan. 2 to apply for a California driver’s license;
• A new California DREAM loan program at the University of California and California State University systems;
driver’s licenses, education, health care, free housing and free natal care including birthing going to the illegals

and even less evidence whatever may have happened influenced the election results one iota.

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by dspguy

Keep in mind that Democrats need to win nationally by something like 3-4% just to break even in the House (thanks, gerrymandering). So, even if the generic ballot which is what we are talking about here did say Dems +4, that's still only a 50/50 shot, at best.

This is no longer true. Democrats actually lost the congressional popular vote in 2016, but gained seats in the House.


Seat a gerrymandered to a point where you must look at the individual close seats and look at trends to see the possibility of seats changing hands.

[GotHereQuickAsICould]

Speaking of trends, this interactive map shows the trends of what would happen if votes across the country changed by the same percentage of these various elections.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1028388083475963904

https://www.axios.com/donald-trump-s...edc29948f.html