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Actually we were both wrong about the number of Senate pickups by Republicans in 2010...actually Republicans picked up 6 Senate seats in 2010, 9 Senate seats in 2014 and 2 Senate seats in 2018.
Still I agree the Dems had a very good midterm election result just not as good as Republicans did when Obama was President.
Do the six Senate seats mean on the year or in the November election? Brown won in a special election similar to the Moore fiasco in Alabama IIRC.
I think two things saved Trump from the 2010/2014 level drubbings- one is that the senate election map was in his favor vs Dems having so many Southern seats in 2014 and being at an unsustainable 60 seats headed toward '10. The House was pretty heavily gerrymandered after 2010 so there were many seats out of reach or won by 2% when the partisan advantage was closer to 10. The other is that Trump relishes a hard fought election and waded into the fray- I think he gets credit for saving Florida specifically. If Nelson and Gillum had one that would have completely changed the narrative for 2018. And I see no reason for that final 12-25k votes in their direction that does not come from Trump himself. Obama was always too aloof and his advisors too strategic when not running his own campaigns. This is why Hillary had to 'take over' the DNC. After Obama the party infrastructure was gutted and the party was in debt.
What "LIBERAL OC"?? Orange Country has been a long time bastion of the conservative movement. That's why all that red is in the before picture, because those have been long term GOP held seats.
Do you just assume everywhere in California is liberal, without actually knowing the reality?
That would be an ironic assumption given the soon to be House Minority Leader is actually from one of the few remaining solidly Republican districts in California. Kevin McCarthy represents the Bakersfield area which has more in common with much of Texas or Oklahoma than other parts of California. But Republicans appear to be in terminal decline in the coastal parts of the state, even those where they performed well before Trump took over the party.
Over the last 100 years, the average midterm loss of House seats for a first-term President is 37. So, D or R, it was average at best. The main metric is he picked up Senate seats, which is rare.
Calling it a Blue Wave is to feel warm and fuzzy about an average midterm pick-up, which only cost $6B to accomplish. Trump firmly controls the Senate which allows him to get all the confirmations he wants. Circuit judges, another SCOTUS probably, the hundreds of cabinet seats that have been slow-walked by Schumer.
We'll see if the new House Dems act like adults or break all their promises. They can't seem to get out of their own way much of the time.
The first promise they'll break is when they elect Pelosi to be the Majority Leader.
538? Didn't they predict on the morning of election day that Hilary Clinton was 98% certain to be elected President?
Are you trying to tell us that 538 is incorrect in claiming that democrats have picked up 38 seats?
The Trumplings here are so intent on saying such-and-such outfit must be incorrect in whatever they say because they got the 2016 election wrong, that if somebody like 538 said the sun rose this morning, these Trumplings would say, "Isn't that the outfit that said Clinton had a 98% chance of winning?" And thus, they must certainly be incorrect when they say the sun rose this morning!
One more is getting close to a tossup in late returns. Congressman Dave Valadao’s lead in CA-21 has been cut to less than a thousand. CA-21 was one of 7 California districts targeted. The other 6 have already fallen.
Democrats lead in the national House vote now by 7.8% (D 53% R 45.2%).
That’s a larger spread than the Republican wave of 1994 (R+7%), Democratic wave of 2006 (D + 6.4%) and the Republican wave of 2010 (R+ 6.6%).
Why did a Democratic wave of 7.8% nationally in 2018 result in 23 or 24 seats less than a Republican wave of 6.6% in 2010?
Where those votes were located made all of the difference. The Republican Vote is broadly scattered among more districts where the Democratic vote is concentrated into dense areas. It’s rare to find a Republican district with a 70% R registration, but there’s any number of Democratic districts of 90%. Gerrymandering accentuates that R advantage in some states, but the natural packing of Democratic vote into tightly packed urban areas minimizes its effectiveness and makes gerrymandering easier.
Maybe some people are math challenged but the 2010 Republican pickups of 63 Congressional House seats and 9 Senate seats is a bigger wave than the Democrats picking up 38 House seats and losing 3 Senate seats....if you can't see that, not much more can be discussed.
My post specifically speaks to seats, not flips.
After 2010, Republicans had 242 seats.
Dems are currently at 233 with a couple of seats yet to be officially called. Thats a difference of 9.
To go into more detail, House seats are gerrymandered. They are drawn by state legislatures, and in some states drawn specifically to help one party win a specific seat.
you would be better to argue senate seats, but that would require you understanding individual state politics.
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