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Old 08-11-2020, 08:09 AM
 
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Erasure. Belarus is often referred to as Russia's balcony. Or in other terms it's known as the Belarussian balcony by military strategists.

There is in that part of the world what is called the Great Northern European Plain. It stretches from Germany to the Ural mountains. The terrain is very well suited for mobile mechanised warfare. It's why Hitler's Blitzkrieg did so well in that part of the world in WWII.
It's also why Russia has felt a need to dominate that part of the world for centuries. Historically all the grief of Napoleon, King Frederick of Sweden, Hitler came along this plain.
Poland wants the PLC back. Poland and America want Russia gone. If Belarus cannot maintain it's neutral stance and goes west then hostile powers are at the gates of Smolenck once again and within striking distance of Moscow itself.
Make no mistake. There are people in power in Eastern Europe and the EU who want war.
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Old 08-11-2020, 10:47 AM
 
26,777 posts, read 22,529,485 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scrat335 View Post
Tikhanovskaya has fled to Lithuania. Supposedly of her own free will. She asked for the protests to stop.

Like it or not there is a silent majority in Belarus.
I spoke with my ex wifes relatives in Orsha and Gomel. They all supported Lukashenko. It's the Ukraine thing.
Yesterday I was listening to one particular Ukrainian youtube channel ( the guy is actually one of the regular Ukrainian TV hosts, and as I discovered lately, few of them are actually native Russian speakers, who are simply not allowed to conduct their shows in Russian. But now they all started their own channels ( in Russian of course.)

And so he devoted that dispatch to the events in Belorussia (which was very helpful, since I am the least familiar with Belorussia - always has been. From little that I knew of them - they were coming across as the most demure, most quiet of the Russian variety - no boisterous gang-ho types as "Russians proper" or Ukrainians can be. )
So the TV host was asking the Belorussian guy ( married to a Ukrainian) about what Belorussians perceived as difficult part living under Lukashenko ( in terms of business, politics, finances - things like that.)

And the guy in his quietest Belorussian manner gave pretty good explanations.

From what I gather, whatever some blame Lukashenko in, comes unjustly from my point of view, because let's face it - Belorussia is a POOR COUNTRY, with nothing in particular to offer, other than good work ethics, hard-working people and penny-pinching president. ( Yes, the dairy products made in Belorussia are flying off the shelves in Russian stores before anything else, because of their quality - that's what Russians are saying. Unlike their own sh*t full of palm oil.)

But SOMEONE ( as usual) is whispering in their ear, that if ONLY, if ONLY Belorussians will "turn to the West," they will be so much "better off financially."

So the Ukrainian host was asking questions.

He said "We too thought back in 2014 that we'll turn into some "European country," but looking at us today, can you understand that what if, what if instead of turning into some "Germany" as you hoped, you will turn into some Gabon instead?"
Another interesting thing that they discussed was Svetlana Tikhanovskay herself ( I knew little about her as well.)
That part was even worse.

Some housewife, with philological/foreign languages education.

While she was riding in a car to the initial protests, she was urgently propped up on how the whole election system works, what branches of the government need to be engaged for that and so on, since she was obviously clueless, while initially promising to set the "re-election."
By the sound of it, she was totally clueless to ANYTHING in politics or governmental apparatus - period, her main peeve was "let's set free my husband and other political prisoners, and they will know what to do from there."

And that's why once she realized what she was up against, she refused to participate in the "protest" and so it didn't have any leader at all ( unlike during Ukrainian Maidan.)

And thus, the Ukrainian host was asking a reasonable question - "OK, so when you are ready to get rid of Lukashenko, whom/what are you going to have instead? It's like throwing away your old pants that you don't like, without having a new pair in your drawer."

Quote:
In Orsha there was a small protest of about 50 people. The cops showed up to save them from the locals. They weren't from Orsha.

Sound familiar?
Yes, it does. *Someone* is stirring things up in that part of the world, and we know who it is.

From what Lukashenko is saying, there were plenty of *foreigners* that arrived to his country for the "event."

He mentioned the countries they were from, and interestingly enough, Russia was on the list as well ( other than those 31 Donbass fighters set up by the Ukrainians I assume.)


Sharij gave a hint that Lukashenko is becoming more and more inconvenient for Kremlin, but whatever insinuations he usually has against Kremlin, do not always make sense to me, knowing the "alternatives" under the circumstances.

But I'll keep listening to all the sources of info, that's how you get a better picture.

Last edited by erasure; 08-11-2020 at 10:56 AM..
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Old 08-11-2020, 11:57 AM
 
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Oh well, the *protests* in Belorussia keep on going by Ukrainian scenario - the young men of "athletic build" throwing Molotov cocktails in police ( one of them actually died throwing the explosives, since it detonated in his hand. The flowers are already promptly brought to his side.)

Poland is already "offering its help in negotiations between Brussels and Lukashenko ( in the same manner as it was "offering its help in negotiations between Yanukovish and EU," back in 2014 in Ukraine and so on. )

That "Nexta" channel broadcasting events from Belorussia (that you Scrat used) is run from Poland as well.
The car is ramming into the police, trying to kill as many of them as possible and so on.

Yep, same recipe all over again as in case with Ukraine.

If the election don't work.. we'll try to *arrange things* the other way.




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMU7EDmawic
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Old 08-11-2020, 12:48 PM
 
Location: Russia
5,786 posts, read 4,228,964 times
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I think Lukashenko has driven himself into a corner and ruined relations with Russia. The main question is how long Belarusian power elite will be loyal to Lukashenko and whether they will want to play their own game.
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Old 08-11-2020, 12:55 PM
 
Location: Russia
5,786 posts, read 4,228,964 times
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And, by the way, Putin is absolutely not obliged to intervene in the events in Belarus. If there is no obvious influence of Western intelligence services, then Putin can remain neutral and not interfere in events. Lukashenko is a bad friend for Russia. Perhaps a more productive dialogue can be established with a new people.
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Old 08-11-2020, 01:11 PM
 
26,777 posts, read 22,529,485 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maksim_Frolov View Post
And, by the way, Putin is absolutely not obliged to intervene in the events in Belarus. If there is no obvious influence of Western intelligence services, then Putin can remain neutral and not interfere in events. Lukashenko is a bad friend for Russia. Perhaps a more productive dialogue can be established with a new people.

Maxim, here I am listening to "Strana UA" (from Ukraine) - a new dispatch on WHO exactly is conducting the protest on the streets of Belorussia, now that Tikhanovskaya escaped to Lithuania and recorded her official "abdication" saying basically that she is nothing but a "weak woman" that doesn't have what it takes to keep on going. She said that "Belorussians made their choice" and appealed to everyone to leave the streets.
However the coordination of the armed protest is coming from Poland now, through three telegram channels; "Nexta" is the main one ( same name as on Youtube.)
Here Olesya Medvedeva explains in details who is behind that channel ( and the current protest) payed by the West of course ( through its Polish proxies.)

These are young Belorussian nationalists, who advise to "burn the animals" - i.e. the police, and threaten Belorussians with "Russian invasion." ( Sounds all too familiar, innit? )

I mean you can hear it all by yourself.

As for Lukashenko - he was not cornered only by the West.
He was cornered by Kremlin as well.

So we'll see what will come out of it all.




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVNMpoanXgM
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Old 08-11-2020, 03:48 PM
DKM
 
Location: California
6,767 posts, read 3,853,283 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by erasure View Post
now that Tikhanovskaya escaped to Lithuania and recorded her official "abdication" saying basically that she is nothing but a "weak woman" that doesn't have what it takes to keep on going. She said that "Belorussians made their choice" and appealed to everyone to leave the streets.
She clearly recorded that under duress and while her husband and campaign staff were in custody. Probably she was in custody in Minsk herself while it was recorded. What a sad scary place Belarus is to do that to people.
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Old 08-11-2020, 06:39 PM
 
8,726 posts, read 7,409,173 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DKM View Post
Full list of countries whose leaders congratulated incumbent Lukashenka with his "victory" in the presidential election in Belarus:

- China
- Russia
- Kazakhstan
- Azerbaijan
- Uzbekistan
- Tajikistan
Nice to see the US' grand trading partner and long time ally, China, on the list.

Also glad to see the US continuing support of the democratic elected leader of Saudi Arabia...oh, wait...
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Old 08-11-2020, 06:47 PM
 
5,428 posts, read 3,493,078 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by k350 View Post
Nice to see the US' grand trading partner and long time ally, China, on the list.

Also glad to see the US continuing support of the democratic elected leader of Saudi Arabia...oh, wait...
The US doesn't support Saudi Arabia. They are a major client, but that's about it.
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Old 08-11-2020, 07:18 PM
 
9,511 posts, read 5,435,844 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maksim_Frolov View Post
And, by the way, Putin is absolutely not obliged to intervene in the events in Belarus. If there is no obvious influence of Western intelligence services, then Putin can remain neutral and not interfere in events. Lukashenko is a bad friend for Russia. Perhaps a more productive dialogue can be established with a new people.
I think you're right about the friend part of it. Lukashenko has his own goals though and that's keeping Belarus independent. I don't think Lukashenko sees the situation correctly. I think maybe Lukashenko is letting his ego get in the way also.

Belarussian independence is not the goal of the western powers, expansion is the goal. Specifically Poland and Lithuania wanting Belarus.

Russia's paralysis concerning Ukraine is very apparent. It shows weakness and the sharks in the water smell blood. Never a good thing. Never. Never.

What really concerns me is the apparent lack of realization of what is going on by Russia's government. If Kremlin Inc and the other powerful people of Russia think they will have special privileges if the worst comes to pass they're terribly mistaken.

Going further forward it gets a lot darker. Outright conflict is not on the table yet but I certainly know there is a drawer under that table.
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