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Old 05-04-2023, 07:39 PM
 
Location: Seattle WA, USA
5,699 posts, read 4,925,642 times
Reputation: 4942

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I wonder what effect would a successful Ukrainian counter offensive have on the Russian presidential election next year? Could a coalition of oligarchs put their thumbs on the scale and make Putin loose? According to the Levada center Putin is as of November polling at 39% with a peak of 43% last July and low of 32% in November 2021. Runner ups include

Abstained 18%
Mishustin (prime minster) 17%
Lavrov (foreign minister) 14%
Shoigu (minister of defense) 12%
Undecided 7%
Other 5%
Zyuganov (communist party leader) 5%
Sobyanin (Moscow mayor) 3%
Medvedev (former President/prime minister) 3%
Navalny (jailed oppositionist) 1%
Bondarenko (millennial communist politician) 1%

*nobody has formally announced they are running
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024...ntial_election
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Old 05-05-2023, 09:43 AM
 
Location: State of Transition
102,203 posts, read 107,859,557 times
Reputation: 116113
Quote:
Originally Posted by grega94 View Post
I wonder what effect would a successful Ukrainian counter offensive have on the Russian presidential election next year? Could a coalition of oligarchs put their thumbs on the scale and make Putin loose? According to the Levada center Putin is as of November polling at 39% with a peak of 43% last July and low of 32% in November 2021. Runner ups include

Abstained 18%
Mishustin (prime minster) 17%
Lavrov (foreign minister) 14%
Shoigu (minister of defense) 12%
Undecided 7%
Other 5%
Zyuganov (communist party leader) 5%
Sobyanin (Moscow mayor) 3%
Medvedev (former President/prime minister) 3%
Navalny (jailed oppositionist) 1%
Bondarenko (millennial communist politician) 1%

*nobody has formally announced they are running
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024...ntial_election
Navalny is up for a Nobel Prize. Not that that would sway anyone in Russia. Interesting, that his support has shrunk to 1%. Or maybe it never was much greater than 1%. I haven't followed him.
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Old 05-08-2023, 06:36 AM
 
Location: East Coast of the United States
27,558 posts, read 28,652,113 times
Reputation: 25148
I am conflicted about the Russia-Ukraine issue.

Should the United States really be involved in a war that's happening half way across the world between countries with strong cultural and historical ties?

And isn't it embarrassing for the leader of one of those countries to have to appeal to the United States for help?
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Old 05-08-2023, 07:48 AM
 
Location: SE UK
14,820 posts, read 12,021,563 times
Reputation: 9813
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigCityDreamer View Post
I am conflicted about the Russia-Ukraine issue.

Should the United States really be involved in a war that's happening half way across the world between countries with strong cultural and historical ties?

And isn't it embarrassing for the leader of one of those countries to have to appeal to the United States for help?
He's not just 'appealing to the US' though is he! He is appealing to the world!! Ultimately what do you expect? His country has been invaded by a foreign power!! How the US reacts is up to the US.

I notice only Poland ans Slovakia have gone as far as supplying the Ukraine with fighter planes (the US news won't report that because its not the US right), that too is down to Poland and Slovakia. In total more than 20 nations have sent military equipment to the Ukraine.

Its so easy for us all to 'pat ourselves on the back' because we've shipped some equipment and no doubt Hollywood will soon make a film where a dozen 'marines' come flying in to the rescue of 'poor Ukranian peasants' by fighting back the whole of the Russian and Chinese military!

Ultimately though the truth is that its the Ukranian's themselves that are fighting off the Russians, I'm sure they are VERY grateful for all of the equipment supplied but its the Ukranians that are the bloody hero's here.

The world would be equally as 'outraged' if Canada invaded Illinois and started shelling Chicago!
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Old 05-08-2023, 10:08 AM
 
2,379 posts, read 1,062,715 times
Reputation: 3387
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigCityDreamer View Post
I am conflicted about the Russia-Ukraine issue.

Should the United States really be involved in a war that's happening half way across the world between countries with strong cultural and historical ties?

And isn't it embarrassing for the leader of one of those countries to have to appeal to the United States for help?
Like Easthome stated...it's not just appealing to the United States...
Heck...even Canada is sending Ukraine Leopard tanks....so not just USA....

As for "strong cultural ties".....maybe so ... but lobbing missiles at civilian apartment buildings
is not a great way to show any "love" ...creates the opposite.....hatred that they won't soon forget.
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Old 05-08-2023, 04:32 PM
 
182 posts, read 38,441 times
Reputation: 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by grega94 View Post
I wonder what effect would a successful Ukrainian counter offensive have on the Russian presidential election next year?
Do you think it will be successful? It is very difficult when one of the parties has missiles and air bombs.

And, of course, Russians will not change Putin until the war is over. This will mean defeat.
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Old 05-08-2023, 11:07 PM
 
2,379 posts, read 1,062,715 times
Reputation: 3387
Quote:
Originally Posted by Borshchevik Sosnovskogo View Post
Do you think it will be successful? It is very difficult when one of the parties has missiles and air bombs.

And, of course, Russians will not change Putin until the war is over. This will mean defeat.
I think it will be successful....but we'll just have to wait and see
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Old 05-09-2023, 10:51 AM
 
Location: Seattle WA, USA
5,699 posts, read 4,925,642 times
Reputation: 4942
Quote:
Originally Posted by Borshchevik Sosnovskogo View Post
Do you think it will be successful? It is very difficult when one of the parties has missiles and air bombs.

And, of course, Russians will not change Putin until the war is over. This will mean defeat.
Ukraine took back Kherson, and most of Kharkiv oblast last summer, the Russian winter offensive was a big flop, still haven’t fully taken control of Bakhmut, even though there is nothing left of the town. Ukrainians have proven them selves to be very determined and effective fighters, I think if they play their cards right they could make another push this summer, maybe even reach the Sea of Azov?

Of course there is a real possibility that the frontline freezes into a stalemate as has been the case for several months now. But ultimately it seems like Putin has bitten off more than he can chew and has no endgame in sight, he has no way of deescalating the war, the best he can wish for is a frozen conflict similar to the Koreas, but then the sanctions will never be removed, the threat of war will always be looming and Russia will become over reliant on China, Russian’s sooner or later will grow tired and want peaceful relations with Europe.
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Old 05-09-2023, 02:38 PM
 
182 posts, read 38,441 times
Reputation: 102
Quote:
Originally Posted by grega94 View Post
Ukraine took back Kherson, and most of Kharkiv oblast last summer, the Russian winter offensive was a big flop, still haven’t fully taken control of Bakhmut, even though there is nothing left of the town. Ukrainians have proven them selves to be very determined and effective fighters, I think if they play their cards right they could make another push this summer, maybe even reach the Sea of Azov?

Of course there is a real possibility that the frontline freezes into a stalemate as has been the case for several months now. But ultimately it seems like Putin has bitten off more than he can chew and has no endgame in sight, he has no way of deescalating the war, the best he can wish for is a frozen conflict similar to the Koreas, but then the sanctions will never be removed, the threat of war will always be looming and Russia will become over reliant on China, Russian’s sooner or later will grow tired and want peaceful relations with Europe.
These are all separate stories. Russian troops in the Kharkov region were not ready for defense. Russians did not plan long battles at the beginning of the war. They planned a sharp blow and overthrow of the Zelensky regime, without protracted battles, destruction of infrastructure and a large number of victims. This did not work out, and when Ukrainians counterattacked, the scattered Russian units retreated. Kherson was surrendered by Russians because they did not want street fighting in a large regional center with a long line of defense. The private military company was not ready for such a scale of fighting, and the mobilized were not trained. Instead of Kherson, Russians took the battle in Bakhmut, where a large number of Ukrainian troops were destroyed. Now Russians have prepared good defensive lines and they have air superiority. If Ukrainians concentrate their troops, then they can come under a massive attack of planning bombs FAB-1500, and this will mean the end of the counteroffensive. Of course, everything is possible, and maybe they will be able to reach the Sea of Azov. But the end of the war will be determined by the economy. Russia has made an alliance with China (unofficially, of course), and population of Russia can live in such conditions for a long time, Russians in general are able to endure and are mentally ready for war. The economy of Ukraine is destroyed and without the help of the West it is doomed. How long the West is ready to finance the war is the main question.
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Old 05-09-2023, 09:47 PM
 
Location: State of Transition
102,203 posts, read 107,859,557 times
Reputation: 116113
Quote:
Originally Posted by Borshchevik Sosnovskogo View Post
Do you think it will be successful? It is very difficult when one of the parties has missiles and air bombs.
This is an interesting point. Ukraine might make some gains on the ground against Russian troops, but Russia will always have the advantage in strategic weapons. How meaningful are modest gains in territory, if the missiles and bombs continue to rain down on the cities, the population, the infrastructure? It''s almost as if two different wars are being waged. Or a combination of two different wars. Ukraine needs to improve its air defense.
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