[SKB]

Originally Posted by kort677

I don't know where you are but that is a fallacy, rents around JAZ are not going to be too much lower than owning, unless you think you're finding a zero down payment on a purchase.

I just know what I have been doing for the last 4.5 years and it has worked great.

[firemed]

In 1925, the inevitable began to occur in the real estate industry. Land prices had reached such a zenith that new customers failed to arrive and old customers began to sell their land. Suddenly, the only market for Florida land was for selling land.

The larger cities of Florida felt the impact first. They had borrowed heavily to finance new road and public service construction and utilized sales taxes and land fees to pay their debts. Now the Yankee dollars were vanishing. St. Petersburg was the most indebted per citizen town in the United States. Key West ranked second.

Caught without customers, many realtors folded up business, sending their binder boys home. One clever Pinellas realtor found a way to send his binders back up North without personal cost. He contracted with a funeral company that by law had to escort the bodies of deceased retirees to Northern cemeteries. Instead of funeral employees, the realtor and funeral director cashed in the two-way tickets for one-way tickets and placed binder boys on the trains as escorts.

[kort677]

Originally Posted by firemed

I would like to think so but look back at Florida 1927, Its about the same right now.

with all due respect, your opinion might come to be but in my eyes it is just kooky

[kort677]

Originally Posted by SKB

I just know what I have been doing for the last 4.5 years and it has worked great.

good for you!
just remember this saying from my wall st days, bulls and bears make money, hogs get slaughtered

[tallrick]

The fact is that real estate is historically a bad investment. The bubble years of the 80's to today have been an aberration. Real estate cannot outpace inflation, especially when incomes are stagnant. Think of the great deals our parents/grandparents got on property. Compare their salaries to ours. Today's real estate prices are completely out of touch with reality. My parents bought a 16,000 dollar NEW home while making 5,000 a year income. Same house today? 400,000 so who earns that 125,000 a year in today's money? Look at the price of gas, they say it is about 3 times 1981 levels. In 1981 you could buy that home for 45,000. See the problem here?

The real estate market is not easy to quantify. Although "values" have gone up how many homes have actually sold in the last 5 years? How many people living in those homes for decades could afford today's prices? The incomes are not there, period. Wealthy people have no desire to live in working-class neighborhoods like Westwood Lakes. Much of FLorida is tract homes, townhomes and inland condos which are not desireable to the "upper class". This historic bubble will deflate like it did in 1926, either slowly or if a hurricane hits, very fast. You can't ride out the bubble by living in a home that no longer exists. If you think your insurance will cover it, think again. A direct hit on a bubble like Miami will drain all the available capital in the Florida insurance reserves.

Housing may not be dropping in price yet, but it has a LONG way to go before things make sense again.

[SKB]

Originally Posted by kort677

good for you!
just remember this saying from my wall st days, bulls and bears make money, hogs get slaughtered

? What is that suppose to mean?

[kort677]

Originally Posted by SKB

? What is that suppose to mean?

it means that you can be bearish or bullish and as long as you're flexible and don't get pig headed about an opinion you'll be ok.
The minute you think that you've out foxed the market and get stubborn about an opinion they'll be wiping your blood off the floor.
This is not directed at anyone in particular, it is just an attempt, using a metaphor, to remind people not to get too fixated on any opinion

[firemed]

Originally Posted by kort677

with all due respect, your opinion might come to be but in my eyes it is just kooky

Yeh, at times it does seem crazy, but I'm sure it did in 1924 also. I really don't see a difference between then and now. All the evils are still in place. The tax issue, insurance issue, infrastructure issue. All the optimism was there also, unfortunately look how it turned out. Lets hope we don't have a repeat, but technically our econony is not looking very promising. The outsourcing of white collar jobs along with a good portion of our manufacturing is the recipe for a perfect storm. I tend to think we are putting a lot of faith in Big Brother.

[firemed]

Originally Posted by tallrick

The fact is that real estate is historically a bad investment. The bubble years of the 80's to today have been an aberration. Real estate cannot outpace inflation, especially when incomes are stagnant. Think of the great deals our parents/grandparents got on property. Compare their salaries to ours. Today's real estate prices are completely out of touch with reality. My parents bought a 16,000 dollar NEW home while making 5,000 a year income. Same house today? 400,000 so who earns that 125,000 a year in today's money? Look at the price of gas, they say it is about 3 times 1981 levels. In 1981 you could buy that home for 45,000. See the problem here?

The real estate market is not easy to quantify. Although "values" have gone up how many homes have actually sold in the last 5 years? How many people living in those homes for decades could afford today's prices? The incomes are not there, period. Wealthy people have no desire to live in working-class neighborhoods like Westwood Lakes. Much of FLorida is tract homes, townhomes and inland condos which are not desireable to the "upper class". This historic bubble will deflate like it did in 1926, either slowly or if a hurricane hits, very fast. You can't ride out the bubble by living in a home that no longer exists. If you think your insurance will cover it, think again. A direct hit on a bubble like Miami will drain all the available capital in the Florida insurance reserves.

Housing may not be dropping in price yet, but it has a LONG way to go before things make sense again.

Rick your back !!!!!!!!!!

[SKB]

Originally Posted by kort677

it means that you can be bearish or bullish and as long as you're flexible and don't get pig headed about an opinion you'll be ok.
The minute you think that you've out foxed the market and get stubborn about an opinion they'll be wiping your blood off the floor.
This is not directed at anyone in particular, it is just an attempt, using a metaphor, to remind people not to get too fixated on any opinion

In all respect Kort, your opinion seems to be as strong if not stronger than mine in the other direction, as you are the one that bought a house this week.
If anyone is at risk, it's certainly not me.