[kort677]

Originally Posted by ddlove01

Just saw this article...4000 more homes are going to be built in Port St. Lucie

4,000 homes to be built in Port St. Lucie (broken link)

This area doesn't need this, we are already overcrowded as it is!

obviously someone thinks they can make a few bucks, so much for a bad housing market

[Audacious]

Originally Posted by kort677

obviously someone thinks they can make a few bucks, so much for a bad housing market

And on the other coast, Mr. Kelly has started work on a one BILLION dollar project in Sarasota. Shops, hotel, condos, the whole mix. Obviously somebody knows something the rest of the world doesn't.

[CHEWY12]

or else he needs a very large capitol loss.

[nychiefsfan]

Have We Reached Bottom?
by Peter G. Miller

It has been intriguing in recent weeks to hear various pronouncements saying that the current housing downturn is done, finished and history. Forbes, as one example, flatly tells us that "the housing market is about to hit bottom." Not to be outdone, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told CNBC that the housing slide is "largely contained."

If we had a federal department of seers and soothsayers then predictions about the future might be somewhat credible, but in the absence of astrologers on the government payroll we are forced to stick with reality.

One reality is that we do not know how much longer, if at all, the current slump will continue. One would prefer that the current slowdown would not continue at all, but what one would prefer and what actually happens may not be the same.

A second reality is that today's trends -- as well as any short-term real estate indicators -- are largely irrelevant to most buyers and sellers. Indicators are necessary to report and interpret, they have an historic value, but they also have less value than many breathless headlines would suggest.

A third reality is that all real estate is a localized commodity. It is only a matter of pure chance when neighborhood trends and national trends track exactly, or when the markets in Seattle and Secaucus or any other two locations share identical profiles in terms of sale activity and prices.

Consider someone who is selling and bought seven or eight years ago, a not-unusual circumstance. In most markets our seller has seen a substantial ramp-up in values and thus now is a dandy time to sell. Maybe not the top of the market, but substantially higher than when the property was bought. For instance, in 2000 the typical home sold for $139,000 while in 1999 the median price for an existing home was $133,300 according to the National Association of Realtors. Today's median price, as of April, is $220,500.

Or, consider buyers. Most buyers are in the market for the long term -- that seven or eight years and perhaps longer. For them, news of slow sales is just dandy, the best time to be a buyer.

Alternatively, opportunities to quickly buy and re-sell are rapidly disappearing, or have already disappeared in many markets. Just ask large numbers of short-term condo investors in Florida.

As to what homes will be worth in a few years, who knows?

What we do know is that current indicators look as follows:


New home sales in April were 10.6 below the level of a year ago, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) in May hit the lowest level since September 2006.

Existing home sales tumbled 10.7 in April when compared with a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Pending sales for April -- a good indicator of future closings -- dropped 10.2 percent when compared with a year earlier, says NAR.

Building permits, which have value in projecting future new home construction, were down 28.1 percent in April from a year earlier, the slowest pace since 1997 according to NAHB.
The last two items are especially important if we're going to play fortune teller. If the good times are about to roll, you would see builders grabbing building permits to meet the onrush of enthusiastic buyers. And if existing home sales in the next few months were on the upswing, then more contracts would be awaiting settlement.

The truth is that several huge problems continue to hang over the marketplace.

First, there are massive numbers of foreclosures, up 62 percent in April when compared to a year ago according to RealtyTrac.com. The homes that cannot be saved from foreclosure are likely to be sold at discount -- and such discounts impact the value of homes which are not in foreclosure.

Second, interest rates are remarkably low, less than 6.5 percent for 30-year, fixed-rate financing according to Freddie Mac. Given the size of our budget deficit and the gross imbalance of payments we have with other countries it is an absolute miracle -- and incredibly fortunate -- that we have not seen higher rates. If rates go up then foreclosure actions are likely to increase as millions of borrowers with ARMs face new and stiffer monthly payments.

If you now have an ARM you might want to seriously look at the opportunities to refinance, especially if you have an interest-only or option-ARM. If not, at least do the math and see what will happen to your monthly payments if rates head higher.

Realty Times - Real Estate News and Advice

[Audacious]

Existing home sales tumbled 10.7 in April when compared with a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Pending sales for April -- a good indicator of future closings -- dropped 10.2 percent when compared with a year earlier, says NAR.

Building permits, which have value in projecting future new home construction, were down 28.1 percent in April from a year earlier, the slowest pace since 1997 according to NAHB.
The last two items are especially important if we're going to play fortune teller. If the good times are about to roll, you would see builders grabbing building permits to meet the onrush of enthusiastic buyers. And if existing home sales in the next few months were on the upswing, then more contracts would be awaiting settlement.

In April 2006 the reality of the housing crunch had not yet set in. I actually had anticipated a much larger drop. But that should be reflected in the next few months.

ALthough I was hoping for a much larger drop, the building permit issue is actually good news for the market. The builders went crazy with spec houses in 2004 - 2006 flooding the market with a lot of poor product. Builders have finally awoken to the current market and are now building on contract only. There is still speculation in the commercial sector but not in residential. The lack of new contracts also speaks well to eliminating the backlog of inventory.

The foreclosure issue is one which IMHO is somewhat overblown or at the very least overstated. Of every 100 loans, how many are in the foreclosure process and how many are actually foreclosed? Saying something went up 62% sounds very ominous but it depends where you were before the increase.

If you had 100 forclosures per month and it increased 62% you now have 162 foreclosures per month. However if you have 10,000 mortgages performing well then rate of forclosure is minimal.

I know "chieftan" is good with data mining so perhaps you have something on this. How many mortgages are out there? Total # of mortgages. And how many have been forclosed? That should be the tale of the tape.

[kelly3120]

hey nychiefsfan ....I'm going to Busch gardens today ...want me to bring you back and elephant? ahahaha! I couldn't resist.

As far as the "market" is concerned and what-not ...you know my thoughts.
no reason to post them again, but I do believe we were made to trust in God and keep moving ...so that's what I'm doing.
now sillies, I'm not saying those that are waiting don't trust God ....dont' be silly. =)


Hey have a good day everyone!

[Hondax]

Originally Posted by kelly3120

hey nychiefsfan ....I'm going to Busch gardens today ...want me to bring you back and elephant? ahahaha! I couldn't resist.

As far as the "market" is concerned and what-not ...you know my thoughts.
no reason to post them again, but I do believe we were made to trust in God and keep moving ...so that's what I'm doing.
now sillies, I'm not saying those that are waiting don't trust God ....dont' be silly. =)


Hey have a good day everyone!

How could anyone not appreciate such fair minded advice,......you go girl!!!!

Now sillies, I'm not saying everyone has to appreciate her advice.....don't be silly.

[nychiefsfan]

Originally Posted by kelly3120

hey nychiefsfan ....I'm going to Busch gardens today ...want me to bring you back and elephant? ahahaha! I couldn't resist.

How about some beer instead

[nychiefsfan]

May home prices close to 2006 levels

The median price of an Orlando-area home last month nearly matched the May 2006 price of $250,000, the Orlando Regional Realtor Association reported Monday.

The good news was that the $249,900 median home price in Central Florida for May was significantly higher than the $242,100 reported a month prior.

Sales, meanwhile, continued to fall with 1,550 recorded last month, a 45.5 percent drop from the 2,842 sales posted in May 2006, but up slightly from the 1,530 homes sold in April. That improvement could be attributed to the end of the school year and the start of the summer selling season, the association says in a news release.

About 7,869 homes sold through May, a 36.4 percent decline from the 12,373 sold through the first five months of 2006.

Condo sales in May dropped by 67 percent, as 155 condos sold, compared to 466 in the same period a year prior. Sales of duplexes, townhomes or villas totaled 231 last month, a 44 percent decline over May 2006 when 130 were bought.

In Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole counties, May 2007 sales were down 47 percent from 3,501 in May of last year to 1,856 this year. To date, 9,491 homes have sold this year while 15,175 homes sold the same period last year, which represents a 37.5 percent decline.

Homes available for purchase through the Multiple Listing Service, meanwhile, went up by 1,028 homes in May 2007 to a total of 25,463, which is a 40 percent jump since May of last year. Inventory also reflects a more than 16-month supply at the current pace of sales.
All homes spent an average of 97 days on the market before being sold and the average home sold for 95.44 percent of its original asking price, according to the association.

May home prices close to 2006 levels - Orlando Business Journal:

[Audacious]

This one doesn't make any sense at all. How can the May 2007 and May 2006 home prices nearly match when there is still a huge inventory surplus? As you all know I believe that we are not approaching RE armageddon, however I also know that most markets took a good hit from last year re prices. Also, selling within 97 days at 95% of list price indicates a strong balanced market which it still isn't. Then again every market is unique onto itself. I guess I'm just thinking out loud.