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Where do you think the money will come from, especially with a lower and lower number of workers?
Money will have to come from the top 10% or so who own and run the companies that produce products. Even then a robot or computer program could probably run a company by itself. I doubt business owners however will choose to automate their own jobs but it's possible, while they just sit back and collect.
Not true. Everything is not being automated. Some things are, releasing humans to concentrate on better and more fulfilling jobs. There will always be new and better jobs, as old ones get disrupted. UBI is not coming ever, as losers will never rule the world.
My post wasn't meant to be taken literally. Literally every single job in the world is automated--no I would never imply that cause obviously that is not true. I meant to say that most jobs could be automated if necessary--now that is true. Everything from accounting, to law, to bar tending, to burger flipping has seen looming automation. Whether or not people allow themselves to be fully automated out of careers, I would say is not likely but, only that it is possible and maybe a real problem in the future.
Money will have to come from the top 10% or so who own and run the companies that produce products. Even then a robot or computer program could probably run a company by itself. I doubt business owners however will choose to automate their own jobs but it's possible, while they just sit back and collect.
This grossly underestimates the talent it takes to run a corporation. Only the best of the best can do this.
This grossly underestimates the talent it takes to run a corporation. Only the best of the best can do this.
I know what you're trying to say, and don't completely disagree with the sentiment, but with 30+ million corps in the US (C, S, and sole prop) there's no way they're all run by the "best of the best." Not even close.
I know what you're trying to say, and don't completely disagree with the sentiment, but with 30+ million corps in the US (C, S, and sole prop) there's no way they're all run by the "best of the best." Not even close.
I’m talking large organizations. I’m a C-Corp myself, so I wouldn’t put the millions of small time operators within this specialized group of people who can manage thousands of people into achieving a specific goal and make money doing it. It’s a tremendously rare talent, and yes, they are worth thousands of times what the broom pushers are worth and their compensation should not be compared to low level workers. When I hear that some CEO makes 1,000 times more than an assembly line worker I say: And he’s worth every penny of it. If some low level functionary thinks he can do better? Show me. Go do it if it’s so easy.
But we know that is not what they indend. It's a wealth redistribution scheme because the funding required would be generated on those earning over $50k or so and redistributed to everyone.
Sure of course. But that makes the scheme even MORE untenable.
The big difference with this crisis and 2008, or any downturn since the late 1970s really, is that it was not initiated by a fundamental problem with the banking or financial system, or otherwise a consequence of unwise speculation in some sector of the economy connected to finance.
As long as the banks are solvent I think we will avoid a Great Depression sutuation. But I do think what's coming will be worse than 2008. 2008 hit the housing market and its related industries including mortgage banking most notably, which had driven much of the economic success of the mid 00s. Covid19 shock is hitting the entire service sector, which is much a more broadly distributed hit that will affect more Americans.
E.g.: I was in Texas in the 00s, and there wasn't much of a foreclosure crisis there. Its economy went down accordingly in 2008-11 but not nearly as bad as the states that had more of a housing shock like say Nevada or California. So going to Texas to get a better job was a legitimate option. Today, there is nowhere you can go to get away from the virus.
Restaurants were responsible for 10% of American jobs. We can't just lose 85% of those jobs and expect to be fine. Let alone the other services that are now shuttered.
US manufacturing was already shrinking through most of 2019, Germany was shaky, and China had reduced it's growth projection. The US was doing OK, thanks to $1.2 trillion in deficit stimulus spending. Nobody has any clue what $2.4 trillion in deficit spending in a single year will do. That will increase the national debt by 10%, not even counting the drop in tax revenue.
This has hurt far more than the service sector. The oil sector is bleeding red for the first time ever, and oil is how Texas sailed through previous recessions untouched. Agriculture was already in desperate trouble before the epidemic. Governments are going broke all over the country, and anyone who doesn't think the government is a part of the economy has not been paying attention. Auto manufacturing is toast. Why would anyone buy a new car when they haven't been driving the old one?
If the deficit hawks in the Senate pull a 1933 on us, it may be a decade before the economy recovers.
Money will have to come from the top 10% or so who own and run the companies that produce products. Even then a robot or computer program could probably run a company by itself. I doubt business owners however will choose to automate their own jobs but it's possible, while they just sit back and collect.
A robot could probably be elected to congress and do a better job than 95% of them. A robot could probably do most government jobs. But running a business is very difficult. Automation will not take CEO jobs away.
To clarify: The financial crisis of 08 was primarily caused by deregulation in the financial industry. That permitted banks to engage in hedge fund trading with derivatives. AANND... When the values of the derivatives crumbled, banks stopped lending to each other. That created the financial crisis that led to the housing market collapse along with a ton of other economic activity.
No. The hedge fund trading was fine on its own. It was backed up by real estate which was considered a good risk then. 2008 was more complicated than just blaming a boogeyman. Problems happened when the real estate that was backing up this activity starting falling in value. I was watching it all as an investor in 2006 and 2007. You could see the cracks in the real estate bubble. Talk back then was real estate never goes down in value. Even in the great depression it kept rising. That is why hedge fund people like real estate. It was suppose to be a 100% guarantee. But it was a house of cards that was caused by lending to people who should never have gotten loans. You can blame the Democrats in congress for pushing that everyone should own a home. Yet Democrats blame deregulation. It took all of the above to crash the economy in 2008 but just to blame deregulation is not correct.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jertheber
This shutdown, tied to a viral threat, has many more people in a hissy fit than we saw in 2008 simply because they figure there may be no threat at all. In 2008 they saw the "system" fail, a system they never really understood, but, the same kind of blaming went on, just as we see in today's heated discussions about who to blame.
The recession of 08 really WAS an orchestrated effort by the financial elite, meant to enrich themselves, and when that failed they robbed us again with the help of (both parties) government. But American citizens are woefully lacking in any type of financial preparedness that could carry them through times such as these. So, the future of the economy, in light of that fact, may be greatly altered--shutdown or not..
Like I said a recession was going to happen in a year or two without the virus. The fact that so many live paycheck to paycheck, some have no choice, others just spend every dollar they earn and do not worry about the future. Regardless we are woefully prepared for this sort of thing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jertheber
I agree with your views of an unstable economy rearing it's head way before the viral threat, but this only demonstrates the fragile nature of our lives, any new virus could well flatten the economy and America in it's wake. But we've been living a lie of national solvency since the recession of 08, we wanted to believe in a future, and we wanted the pain to stop, more building, more loans, new schools, new businesses-- all equals more debt, and that's what we've been celebrating these last few years.
I agree
Quote:
Originally Posted by jertheber
Regarding the question of the future of such viral threats and what we can do--I'm looking at Sweden and seeing that they have their own economic woes, even though they have taken a less stringent approach to shutting down economic activity. People here in the US will be the final determiner of how much viral exposure they will allow, and we will eventually be living in a situation more like Sweden. And, to the surprise of those who see the Swede approach as a kind of economic liberation, they will finally understand what the rest of us are saying about cautionary measures as opposed to the notion of an all out no holds barred return to yesterday..
I have been watching what Sweden has been doing. I think the best approach here is if you are high risk or afraid to go out, stay home. But everyone else should try to get back to a somewhat normal life with caution. To force people out of work and businesses close when younger people without health issues have a small fraction of 1% of being effected by this virus is nonsense.
Social distance, stay away from crowds. Wear masks. Studies have shown that 15-30% of all people probably have had the virus. And that's with keeping people home most of the time. We should easily be able to get to 60-70% which should help us get to herd immunity quickly instead of dragging it out for a couple more years.
Social distance, stay away from crowds. Wear masks. Studies have shown that 15-30% of all people probably have had the virus. And that's with keeping people home most of the time. We should easily be able to get to 60-70% which should help us get to herd immunity quickly instead of dragging it out for a couple more years.
Perhaps 30% of NYC has been infected. NYC is 2.5% of the US population. Vast areas of the country have not had an outbreak yet, and are just waiting their turn. It's tricky to make predictions when the uncertainty in your data is 50% or more.
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