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They had predicated 5 feet of storm surge for tampa, how did they get the forecast so wrong?
The surge maps are referred to as "potential" in that they show worst case scenario for this particular storm based on that storms specs/stats. In this case that would have been it skirting along the West coast just offshore all the way up to Tampa which was very possible.
The higher surge was not seen on the west coast though because the storm weakened earlier then predicted thus lowering surge height, and back/lower half of hurricane litterally disappeared by the time made landfall near Naples due to: never fully recovering from run in with Cuba, dry air was able to get in that tiny gap left by Cuba and weaken the storm, and storm went up the east/right side of what cone map showed so it went well inland and up the FL peninsula instead of up along the coast (which was another possibility in the cone) which would have been worse.
How'd they not know these things would happen and timing/strength of all the other things out that turned it: Just not enough known about weather yet.
11pEST Monday 11Sept 2017: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression with winds of 35mph, moving NW 15mph, pressure 988mb. "Center" located near GA/AL border.
and you can easily see that can still be a dangerous animal...
Charleston is such a lovely town and Irma is such an ungrateful houseguest...
That's a good description but if you can see your yard and there are no cars floated in or your neighbor's roof...all is well...
Be grateful for blessings...expected or random...
Originally Posted by tar21 View Post
They had predicated 5 feet of storm surge for tampa, how did they get the forecast so wrong?
Then Psychoma's response:
The surge maps are referred to as "potential" in that they show worst case scenario for this particular storm based on that storms specs/stats. In this case that would have been it skirting along the West coast just offshore all the way up to Tampa which was very possible.
The higher surge was not seen on the west coast though because the storm weakened earlier then predicted thus lowering surge height, and back/lower half of hurricane litterally disappeared by the time made landfall near Naples due to: never fully recovering from run in with Cuba, dry air was able to get in that tiny gap left by Cuba and weaken the storm, and storm went up the east/right side of what cone map showed so it went well inland and up the FL peninsula instead of up along the coast (which was another possibility in the cone) which would have been worse.
How'd they not know these things would happen and timing/strength of all the other things out that turned it: Just not enough known about weather yet.
several days ago--maybe Thursday-- Sarasota Emergency Mgmt Dept of Sarasota County had press conference (which they did very regularly once Irma turned really serious) and they said THEY expected Irma to be a Cat2 when she got to Sarasota area.
That was BEFORE the models showed Irma coming up the west side, maybe hitting between Everglades and anywhere up to Tampa
I felt that was such an overconfident estimate because there was no certainty WHERE the impact might be.
I still think it was a bad idea because I know many people in my neighborhood who probably stayed and sheltered in their homes which are just couple of miles from Nokomis Beach, few miles south of Sarasota proper.
IF Irma HAD maintained her strength/core integrity coming off Cuba, the west could have looked much more like Miami than the storm surge Tampa and our area received.
As Psychoma said, this is an INexact science--how could it be anything else when humans can do nothing to influence the outcome once a storm developes.
You see the same capricious damage in a tornado when on one street houses of similar construction can be turned into a pile of pick-up-sticks or left standing in isolation on their block.
That irrational threat is what creates a large portion of my own personal fear in situations like this.
When you learn that any "statistical model" always has outliers or examples that for whatever reason don't conform, you know life really has NO certainty. My son was diagnosed with Hodgkin's Disease when he was 9. Neither his pediatrician or the ENT who treated him for symptoms that certainly conformed to Hodgkin's credited MY fear that it was behind his problems--because statistically very few children develop a "young adult" cancer. Patronizing is a mild term for how they treated my concerns until more than a month of various tests and treatments passed w/o any benefit. Once a biopsy (vs a much less invasive but effective diagnosis chest X-Ray I suggested) confirmed cancer, then they were totally unapologetic and no help in finding an H/O clinic to treat the cancer. Our son was cured--he was stage 3 above/below diaphragm--as bad as it gets before going into a major organ like liver--by some GREAT doctors at Cook's Children's in FTW TX. We still donate there 30 yrs later.
So prepare for the worst, hope for the best...and always be grateful if you can escape with less damage than anticipated.
Just don't fail because of a lack of imagination...
Anyone who was in zone of danger because they think they are "special" are still denying the threat potential IMO. They weren't saved because they were special, but because they were lucky...not the same thing at all.
It was nice to follow something more closely than dang politics for a change.
Still haven't purchased tickets to fly back to US via Korean and worried about different kinds of wind.
And it was so refreshing to be in such a long thread with posters from many areas and political persuasions (I am sure) and not see those nasty cat fights develop.
I would not be surprised if there is another big storm that kicks up in the Gulf. Told our daughter to leave everything inside for now until we know for sure the season is over...just put cardboard under any feet that might stain...
The friends they sheltered with were still on generator power late yesterday so they might move in if it doesn't come back today...but everyone we know from Port Charlotte through North Port and up,Thru Venice and Sarasota fares so much better than it could have been...
My Cape Coral neighborhood next to Ft Myers did good. No homes damaged,but fencing and trees,bushes did not. My metal fence was not damaged but the wood and plastic fences all were damaged. I thought my fence would be the first to go. I am glad none of us lost our roofs. Everybody had thumbs up that the homes had no damage. It was bad. The winds continued for hours and hours . It was a huge storm.
My daughter had a large tree come down and the Porta Pottie next door flew into her car. At least it was the older car and not the new one. She is still without electric, are you?
I am in the middle of the state. I lost internet and phone long before the hurricane came. It just came on a short time ago. I did have electric tho.
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