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Yes...thoughtful and that Jose info makes my teeth hurt...
Better than someone I have been watching in addition to Levi Cowen's Tidbits
Will look for him on FB
Mandatory evacuations in GA *Starting Saturday 8am* for ALL areas east (right) of i95 (see yellow shaded areas in image below) including Savannah and including some areas west of i95. Tybee Island mandatory evacuation begins 8am Friday. Contraflow will begin on I-16 starting Saturday morning at 8am (reversal of traffic so all lanes both sides head away from the coast). Check with officials for changes! uncertainty in when this large storm will turn, running out of time to make a decision, and i95 already fuller with people evacuating from FL.
Ya, that's why we've been saying watch the Ensembles ( the mini-models that make up the main models), they've had this more western solution for several days now, thats why NHC cone included a west coast solution. Still shows also the uncertainty on when this turn north takes place.
OK, I'm confused again.
The models were showing it was tracking east. The NHC showed it tracking west. Now the NHC has it tracking east, but the models have it tracking west?
???
SO: Basically at this point no one knows at all where it is going to go? It's as likely to hit Miami as it is to hit Naples?
I'm also confused and feeling a bit panicked. Even if we decided to evacuate from Sarasota county, I wouldn't even know where to go. We're 48 hours away from... something, but what?
The models were showing it was tracking east. The NHC showed it tracking west. Now the NHC has it tracking east, but the models have it tracking west?
???
SO: Basically at this point no one knows at all where it is going to go? It's as likely to hit Miami as it is to hit Naples?
Many of the models were tracking east, but if you open the hood and look at the smaller models (the ensembles) that make up those models, there has been a lot those ones that consistently took it across West, central, and east FL. So all options have been on the table and that's why the NHC's cone map has been saying/represents and why they didnt jump more east right away when a lot of models did. They never said specifically its was going up east coast of Florida only, the cone is where the center could go and they've kept that over the entire FL peninsula this whole time. News channels (that I've seen) have been focusing only on specific model runs though saying East FL. We just don't know yet exactly when it'll turn yet but every day models getting closer together but every mile has huge implications whether its more west or east. Models will likely shift a little still.
And yes its a very problematic issue to have on this South to North track.
Still too soon to know where but pretty good bet everyone in Florida will feel something. Afternoon models are in:
If all the mini models are/were tracking west then why are the models tracking east?
I seriously can't make heads or tails of any of this.
It seems like all the tracking is just a crap shoot.
The mini models were saying possibility of west, central, east, or east of FL, just averaged out, or however they calculate themselves I'm not sure, that the overall models said more east. They run every so many hours and move a little each run. We'll know more as we get closer and know a lot when it actually turns but thats still literally last minute or hopefully they say they're more confident in a certain solution soon.
I'm also confused and feeling a bit panicked. Even if we decided to evacuate from Sarasota county, I wouldn't even know where to go. We're 48 hours away from... something, but what?
Same here, North Port. Family is way up in Ohio and most hotels are booked, no where else to go and not knowing where it will actually track. With gas shortage and traffic issues.. I'm worried to go just as much as staying.
If all the mini models are/were tracking west then why are the models tracking east?
I seriously can't make heads or tails of any of this.
It seems like all the tracking is just a crap shoot.
Bingo. If I were in the south or east side of Florida I would evacuate. Same for the coast of Georgia and SC. If I were in NC I would wait another couple of days at least.
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