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The exotic stuff is what started all this. At this point American companies need to move their factories out of China, maybe then China will take this more seriously. There was already pressure to do this. If that doesn't work, maybe more warships need to be placed along those BS islands China keeps annexing till they get with the program.
Remove all those other immigration programs. I think immigrants can still invest $250k in USA and you get an expedited green card process.
Put a 10-15% tax on any real estate purchase from outside investors like Canada did.
3 viruses have originated in China within the last 2 decades. It's not okay.
I think there will be a reckoning with companies in China after this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RationalExpectations
The antibody & wristband idea is a good one.
This morning I read Austria is planning to start opening small businesses - not all at once, but a trickle, then more, then medium sized and ultimately larger businesses. They plan to monitor the data, of course, and alter the plan as appropriate. That's encouraging.
Regarding the President and other elected leaders, they are in a tough spot. They have to simultaneously discuss tactics of what we're doing now, PLUS they have to paint a picture of a brighter tomorrow. Our leaders govern only with the Consent of the Governed; if all elected leaders came out and focused on how bad it might be without painting a vision of a better tomorrow, the Consent of the Governed might rapidly evaporate. When they do talk about getting back to normal, I personally view those statements as being statements of hope more than forecasts of what will *really* happen.
*****
A life-long close friend of mine has spent his life in medical research - but nothing that gives him expertise in the coronavirus. He has an MD from Harvard, PhD in Epidemiology and another PhD in Neuroscience from Johns Hopkins, board certified in Neurology. He did his neurology residency at UC San Francisco. He spent his life researching cures/treatments for Alzheimer's and for Parkinson's, both in the lab and supervising clinical trials, and prior to retirement, was chief medical officer of a few biotech companies.
While his background is not close to pulmonology or virology, he is medically well educated and trained, a really smart guy, and also someone who is quiet and never exaggerates. He doesn't need to establish he's the smartest guy in the room; if you're really smart & educated, you'll realize he really is.
At the risk of speaking for him and accidentally misrepresenting his views, he'd state the following:
The data are really, really suspect.
The models are better than wild-assed-guesses, but far from reliable.
The takeaway from these models shouldn't be to forecast how many coffins to build - the takeaway is this is a very dangerous virus and social isolation/lockdown/hygiene are extremely important in the coming weeks/months.
All the discussion about a vaccine being available in 18 months are based on a huge assumption that the vaccines discovered will be both effective enough and safe enough to be manufactured & administered, and that is NOT a given.
We're looking at the pandemic stage lasting into 2022 before it is no longer considered a pandemic.
My sister-in-law also has spent most all her career in medical research. Her MD also is from Harvard, she's board certified in internal medicine with a fellowship in pulmonology, and performed her residency at Brigham and Women's Hospital. The past 30 years she's supervised clinical trials. Again, at the risk of speaking for her:
Ten days ago she said "plan on shelter-in-place for 18 months."
Yesterday she said she's revised that to "plan on shelter-in-place for 24 months."
She also said, "don't count on a vaccine."
She's a very compassionate and humanistic person. She says "Plan B" will be to let the virus run wild, and after a nasty several months with multiple millions of deaths in the USA, we'll then have herd immunity and it won't be a pandemic anymore. Effectively, that's what will happen in many 3rd world countries.
Finally, the longer term hope is the virus evolves to be less deadly. There are reasons to believe this may happen.
Those are some pretty prestigious places and credentials. Sad to hear it about the outcomes.
I read in NYC they're trying to get antibody tests from Germany. They propose people who survived can wear wrist bands and go back to work. Wuhan just reopened after several months of total lockdown. They say that 80% herd immunity plus a vaccine, which will take 18 months on the fast track, is when we will start getting back to normal, but the President doesn't want to wait that long. He was talking about reopening the country by Easter in mid April and then extended it till the end of the month because it would be before we peak. Doctors say ideally we should be shut down until mid June. Again, I don't think they'll wait to extend it that long here. The top doctor, Anthony Fauci, said likely reoccurrences will be in waves over the next 18 months and we may need to shutdown more than once. That it will become seasonal unless we can get it under control globally. The 1918 Spanish Flu came in three waves with the second wave being the most deadliest.
The antibody test with wristband idea is a good one. I suspect at some point, the survivors might be conscripted into critical needs jobs. The waiter who survived may be conscripted into stocking shelves or working in warehouses, for example. If not conscripted, then heavily encouraged.
This morning I read Austria is planning to start opening small businesses - not all at once, but a trickle, then more, then medium sized and ultimately larger businesses. They plan to monitor the data, of course, and alter the plan as appropriate. That's encouraging.
Regarding the President and other elected leaders, they are in a tough spot. They have to stress social isolation & social distancing, PLUS they have to paint a picture of a brighter tomorrow. Our leaders govern only with the Consent of the Governed; if our elected leaders at the federal, state, and local levels do not paint a vision of a better tomorrow, the Consent of the Governed might rapidly evaporate. When they do talk about getting back to normal, I personally view those statements as being statements of hope more than forecasts of what actually will happen. If elected leaders were honest and came out and said "it's probable that the 2020-21 NFL season and college football will both be cancelled," many very bad things would probably happen.
*****
A life-long close friend of mine has spent his professional career in medical research - but nothing that gives him expertise in the coronavirus. He has an MD from Harvard, PhD in Epidemiology and another PhD in Neuroscience from Johns Hopkins, board certified in Neurology. He did his neurology residency at UC San Francisco. He spent his life researching cures/treatments for Alzheimer's and for Parkinson's, both in the lab and supervising clinical trials, and prior to retirement, was chief medical officer of a few biotech companies.
While his background is not close to pulmonology or virology, he is medically well educated and trained, a really smart guy, and also someone who is quiet and never exaggerates. He doesn't need to establish he's the smartest guy in the room; if you're really smart & educated, you'll realize he really is.
At the risk of speaking for him and accidentally misrepresenting his views, he'd state the following:
The data are really, really suspect.
The models are better than wild-assed-guesses, but far from reliable.
The takeaway from these models shouldn't be to forecast how many coffins to build - the takeaway is this is a very dangerous virus and social isolation/lockdown/hygiene are extremely important in the coming weeks/months.
All the discussion about a vaccine being available in 18 months are based on a huge assumption that the vaccines discovered will be both effective enough and safe enough to be manufactured & administered, and that is NOT a given.
We're looking at the pandemic stage lasting into 2022 before it is no longer considered a pandemic.
My sister-in-law also has spent most all her career in medical research. Her MD also is from Harvard, she's board certified in internal medicine with a fellowship in pulmonology, and performed her residency at Brigham and Women's Hospital. The past 30 years she's supervised clinical trials. Again, at the risk of speaking for her:
Ten days ago she said "plan on shelter-in-place for 18 months."
Yesterday she said she's revised that to "plan on shelter-in-place for 24 months."
She also said, "don't count on a vaccine."
She's a very compassionate and humanistic person. She says "Plan B" will be to let the virus run wild, and after a nasty several months with multiple millions of deaths in the USA, we'll then have herd immunity and it won't be a pandemic anymore. Effectively, that's what will happen in many 3rd world countries.
Finally, the longer term hope is the virus evolves to be less deadly. There are reasons to believe this may happen.
I just don't see how the USA economy can afford 18-24 months of shelter in place. Millions would die from stuff other than Covid. I'd say we have to go to plan B or maybe plan C which would be some combination of Plan A and Plan B. Unfortunately I fear that travel/tourism could be last to open up and thus Vegas could be in for a really bad couple years.
I just don't see how the USA economy can afford 18-24 months of shelter in place.
Hence "Plan B."
But people need to recognize "Plan B" entails something more than overwhelming the medical system and resultant deaths.
The following are all hypothetical, of course - so use your imagination. Under a "Plan B" scenario where effectively almost every household simultaneously has sick people:
What if the migrant farm workers are sick, afraid, and no longer show up to pick vegetables & fruit?
What if employees of food packing companies are sick, afraid, and they don't show up to work?
What if employees at slaughterhouses and meat packing companies are sick, afraid, and no longer show up to work?
What if employees at food distribution centers are sick, afraid, and no longer show up to work?
What if truck drivers are sick and don't show up to work?
What if the police are sick and afraid and don't show up to work?
What if employees at electricity generating plants are sick, afraid, and no longer show up to work?
What if employees at gasoline/oil refineries are sick, afraid, and no longer show up to work?
What if all the above happen simultaneously?
What if the employees at toilet paper manufacturing plants are sick, afraid, and no longer show up to work???
These are all wildly hypothetical at this point, of course, but you get the idea.
Last edited by RationalExpectations; 04-06-2020 at 11:47 AM..
I know. Let's all die for Father Capitalism. We should all die so Trump's glorious economy can come roaring back. Pass it on. lol
Taiwan started passing out masks in December and hasn't had to shutdown their economy despite being close to the outbreak. They have access to medical care and started stockpiling medical gear early having learned from the SARS outbreak in 2003. They also did contact tracing and travel restrictions.
Looking through the rear-view mirror at what could have happened, might have happened, or should have happened, really isn't useful right now. We cannot change the past. We all need to focus on looking through the windshield about what we do next.
Not every hospital is a level I trauma center and has the beds, supplies and training to handle ICU cases like COVID19 cases that need ventilators.
My husband interviewed at Brookdale for residency. They're known for where the military sends their doctors to train for combat cuz they'll see the most gun shot wounds there. Definitely a trauma hospital.
In Las Vegas UMC is the only level I Trauma Center and Sunrise is the only level II. The rest are level III's.
NYC is now the world's coronavirus epicenter so it's an emergency there.
Looking through the rear-view mirror at what could have happened, might have happened, or should have happened, really isn't useful right now. We cannot change the past. We all need to focus on looking through the windshield about what we do next.
That's some interesting fortune cookie wisdom there, partner.
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