[CD2017]

Originally Posted by Merry Lee Gather

Mitigation is working. The curve is flattening. The peak has been brought forward to April 12th. Stay home. Wash hands. Don't get too excited. They may still extend the lockdown into May depending on numbers. Lifting lockdown early may cause an acute second wave of infections. The more we follow social distancing the quicker we get through this.

Where are you getting 4/12 for the peak? I know many different models, but I don't think we are that close to it. Of course, I'm just spit-balling.

[equid0x]

Originally Posted by Merry Lee Gather

Breitbart is a white nationalist news outlet.

Pandemic economics. Numbers going down is a good thing. It means mitigation efforts are working. We're flattening the curve. ~60K deaths is optimistic.

Hahaha

If Breitbart is a white nationalist outlet then cnn is a black panther outlet.

[longviewJoe]

Originally Posted by rhuff80

Where are you getting 4/12 for the peak? I know many different models, but I don't think we are that close to it. Of course, I'm just spit-balling.

We are hearing 4/15 here in nor Cali. However, remember it's a bell curve.

[ND_Irish]

Originally Posted by Merry Lee Gather

Mitigation is working. The curve is flattening. The peak has been brought forward to April 12th. Stay home. Wash hands. Don't get too excited. They may still extend the lockdown into May depending on numbers. Lifting lockdown early may cause an acute second wave of infections. The more we follow social distancing the quicker we get through this.

I am not sure what numbers you think are going to ensure this lockdown continues into May. The numbers right now do not justify a complete lockdown, actual or projected. They also do not justify costing hundreds of thousands of people their livelihoods. I am more concerned that Nevada and every other state may make things worse by having delayed natural herd immunity for the low-risk demographic.

Once again, the dictator of Nevada issued a new edict this evening with new restrictions on our mobility and religious worship despite no major surge in cases or deaths. Apparently, he has time to review photos which people are sending him of people golfing which helped inform his decision. The following is from an article on The Nevada Independent website this evening: (https://thenevadaindependent.com/art...s-golf-courses)

"Sisiolak said his decision to close golf courses as well as public basketball courts, tennis courts and swimming pools came after he received photos depicting people not following social-distancing protocols.

'They were not riding one in a cart. They were congregating on the greens, and I cannot take the chance to have it get spread that way,' he said. 'We tried it. It didn’t work because some folks, again, chose not to follow the rules.'"

Per Channel 8's website he also apparently took some time to explain to us how we should get our news. (https://www.8newsnow.com/news/local-...-19-in-nevada/)

"Gov. Sisolak reminded Nevadans to get their news from trusted sources to prevent misinformation and encouraged Las Vegas residents to subscribe to local news media sites and oulets [sic] to support them.

Many local anchors have setup studios in their homes so they can ‘Stay Home for Nevada.’

'You deserve transparency and the trust that they are working hard to keep you informed. Please support them as they support us,' said Gov. Sisolak."

I am still trying to figure out the quote, "Please support them as they support us." A free press is not there to support Governor Sisolak's agenda. It should be asking tough questions and forcing Governor Sisolak and the state bureaucracy to be transparent just as he promised the citizens of Nevada in February.

I simply cannot believe this person was elected governor and is leading this state. He is Big Brother. It certainly does not reflect well on the state to have this kind of leadership. Hopefully, a recall petition will be started once Big Brother's edicts are no longer in effect.

[equid0x]

Originally Posted by Merry Lee Gather

Not Taiwan. They passed out 10M masks in December and they didn't have to shut down their economy despite being close to the outbreak. They learned their lessons from the 2003 SARS outbreak. We had months to get our act together but didn't. He cared more about dumping trillions into his previous stock market then the response to C19. Only reluctantly did he get onboard.

There wasn't much to respond to in December. China wasn't sharing any information.

[ND_Irish]

Originally Posted by lvmensch

You should be more supportive. I am not suggesting the IHME numbers are gospel. But what is the alternative? You cannot really do any kind of linear projection as you know the process is not linear. And I would also point out the models adopted by a number of municipalities are more pessimistic than IHME.

And as you find data that argues with the IHME you do a correction or try and refine your own model.

And the rub is that you have to react to a model. The only choice you have is which one. And if you get it wrong there can be a horrendous price to pay.

I will not be more supportive of a model which has led to horrific policy decisions and cost millions of people their livelihoods and so much more in the future. What other models are municipalities, specifically ones in Nevada, relying upon? Can you provide links to those organizations? Our "transparent" governor certainly does not seem to be letting us know about the secret models he is consulting when not reviewing photos of golfers.

I do agree with your last sentence. This country and this state are paying a horrible price now and will pay a much worse price in the future due to their reliance on academics operating in a vacuum and their models. All of this hardship for millions was not caused as a result of the swine flu in 2009 and 2010, and it should not have been caused now. It is disgraceful.

[equid0x]

Originally Posted by strato58

I was tired of hearing how Trump called the virus a hoax and “did nothing” until March.... So I did research. Here’s the real timeline of what happened (all of this BEFORE we had even one death in the US) :
1/6 CDC issues travel advisory for Wuhan.
1/11 CDC tweets about corona related “pneumonia outbreak in China”
1/14 WHO tweets that there is no evidence of human to human transmission.
1/17 CDC started doing health screenings at 3 airports of travelers from China.
1/21 first case in US for someone who traveled directly from Wuhan.
1/23 WHO again says no human to human transmission outside of China.
1/27 WHO raises alert level but is still saying China has it contained.
1/28 CDC states “ While CDC considers covid a serious situation and is taking preparedness measures, the immediate risk in the US is considered low.”
1/29 White House announces Coronavirus Task Force created. Note - this is despite the WHO downplaying the threat!
1/31 Trump bans travel from China.
Media and multiple Democrats slam his decision calling it racist/xenophobic.
2/5 Trump acquitted (impeachment).
2/5 Chuck Schumer in a tweet continues to call Trumps’ travel ban from China “premature.”
2/7 White House’s Coronavirus Task Force gives press briefing.
2/9 White House Coronavirus Task Force meets with all governors regarding virus.
2/12 CDC waiting for approval from Chinese for CDC team to travel to China.
2/18 HHS announces partnership to develop vaccine.
2/21 Italy identifies its very first case in their country.
2/21 CDC tweets that it is working with States for preparedness.
2/24 Trump sent letter to Congress asking for $25B for virus effort.
2/24 Nancy Pelosi made a stop in Chinatown and encouraged people to “please come and visit and enjoy Chinatown.”
2/25 there is still no reported community spread in the US!!! (Per CDC tweet.)
2/27 first community transmission in US.
2/27 Trump appoints Pence to coordinate efforts.
2/29 FIRST reported Covid19 death in US.
It is helpful to look at the actual timeline. All of this happened BEFORE the 1st death in US.

Yup. I pointed out that the Trump Admin took action on 1/6 60 pages ago, but the liberal echo chamber on the forum continued insisting he did nothing, moved the goal posts claiming he fired the CDC response unit (he didn't), then called me a tin- foil hat wearer.

I'm about ready to just let these people sink in their own cesspool of hate and ignorance.

[equid0x]

Originally Posted by lvmensch

Well at least two of them are obviously wrong...

On 1/14 WHO said..
*************************
“Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China,” the organization had said.
*************************

On 1/23 WHO reported ...
*************************
Human-to-human transmission is occurring and a preliminary R0 estimate of 1.4-2.5 was presented. Amplification has occurred in one health care facility. Of confirmed cases, 25% are reported to be severe. The source is still unknown (most likely an animal reservoir) and the extent of human-to-human transmission is still not clear.
*************************

So it is reasonably clear WHO never claimed there was no human to human transmission.

And Trump did not ban travel from China on 1/31. He did restrict it but there was lots of travel from China after 1/31.

Too bad we cannot get the well known basic facts right in these discussions.

I said several times now on the thread that travel was restricted on 1/31. I stated several times that the only people still traveling from China were US citizens and foreign nationals with green cards.

Obviously, what I say can't be trusted because I'm a tin- foil hat wearer who needs to take my meds, right?

[equid0x]

Originally Posted by Merry Lee Gather

It's well known. Not a reputable news source. Only brainwashed cult members believe it.

https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/...list-alt-right

Good lord. And you consider the southern poverty law center reputable?

Also, alt-right != white nationalist.

[ND_Irish]

Originally Posted by Merry Lee Gather

Mitigation is working. The curve is flattening. The peak has been brought forward to April 12th. Stay home. Wash hands. Don't get too excited. They may still extend the lockdown into May depending on numbers. Lifting lockdown early may cause an acute second wave of infections. The more we follow social distancing the quicker we get through this.

What specific peak has been brought forward to April 12th? Also, how do you know with certainty that mitigation is working? Dr. Anthony Fauci proclaiming it is so is not a good enough answer for me.

IHME predicts a peak for Nevada now on April 17th for resource utilization and a peak number of deaths (22) on April 19th.

IHME predicts a peak for the United States now on April 11th for resource utilization and a peak number of deaths (2,212) on April 12th.