Sisolak: “I’m putting lives over dollars” (professionals, dangerous)

[RationalExpectations]

Originally Posted by aardogfsu

Couldn’t be more wrong. Even in NYC, America’s epicenter, they are saying it’s 40x-50x LESS lethal than what was first reported after testing for antibodies. 2% divided by 50 is 0.04%. The flu is 0.02%.

Viral antibodies are not my area of expertise - so all I can do is repeat something interesting I heard in an interview with a scientist & professor of epidemiology at Columbia Medical School (I think).

His point was you cannot use the raw results of antibody testing to come to the conclusion you just did.

[jupiter87135]

The death rate from COVID-19 is a full order of magnitude below what was predicted. Any governor insisting on keeping their state closed at this point is simply doing so for political purposes, NOT for public health related reasons. Anyone who insists otherwise to you is either lying to you or is so much of a fool that I'd question why you would be listening to them at all. Those of you who watch CNN - this message does not apply to you. You were a lost cause long, long ago. For the otherwise rational, you really need to push back against anyone who, at this point, is actively keeping this state closed.

[longviewJoe]

Originally Posted by jupiter87135

The death rate from COVID-19 is a full order of magnitude below what was predicted. Any governor insisting on keeping their state closed at this point is simply doing so for political purposes, NOT for public health related reasons. Anyone who insists otherwise to you is either lying to you or is so much of a fool that I'd question why you would be listening to them at all. Those of you who watch CNN - this message does not apply to you. You were a lost cause long, long ago. For the otherwise rational, you really need to push back against anyone who, at this point, is actively keeping this state closed.

I tend to agree with your first statement. I do think the death rate is considerably lower than initially thought. I don't agree with your other statement as I think there is still considerable risk to opening up premature. We all should start slowly opening up though. Eventually we need to open and people will die but that's the way it goes and hopefully that rate is down below 1%. We can't stay locked up forever.

[aardogfsu]

Originally Posted by RationalExpectations

Viral antibodies are not my area of expertise - so all I can do is repeat something interesting I heard in an interview with a scientist & professor of epidemiology at Columbia Medical School (I think).

His point was you cannot use the raw results of antibody testing to come to the conclusion you just did.

So anti-bodies that develop in your body to fight an illness are not proof that you had the illness? I guess according to that doctor all these countries that are starting to do all these anti-body tests are spinning their wheels.

[Mikala43]

Originally Posted by aardogfsu

So anti-bodies that develop in your body to fight an illness are not proof that you had the illness? I guess according to that doctor all these countries that are starting to do all these anti-body tests are spinning their wheels.

Proof you've had it, not proof you are immune... they are still working that one out.

Plus, only 3 of the 16 antibody tests on the market are deemed reliable. Some have up to 16% false positives.

So it is okay for general community planning, not something you want to bet your life on.

[longviewJoe]

Originally Posted by Mikala43

Proof you've had it, not proof you are immune... they are still working that one out.

Plus, only 3 of the 16 antibody tests on the market are deemed reliable. Some have up to 16% false positives.

So it is okay for general community planning, not something you want to bet your life on.

Yes, I would not bet your life on this and people should stay home if they are compromised in any way. I actually heard on local news yesterday that the antibody tests have up to 50% false positives. Whatever the number (16 or 50%) it's too large to be deemed very reliable... on top of the problem of not yet knowing the answer the immunity question. Still a big mess!

[Clarkcty]

Originally Posted by longviewJoe

... I think there is still considerable risk to opening up premature. We all should start slowly opening up though. Eventually we need to open and people will die but that's the way it goes and hopefully that rate is down below 1%. We can't stay locked up forever.

Robust testing is of utmost importance if we want to open our state. It is only half the battle, once we start getting visitors from all over the U.S. and the world, that is another problem that has to be dealth with.

No shows, no sports gambling, no pool parties, no concerts... who wants to come to Vegas at this time and deal with 110-115 degree heat. Goodluck to us all!

[ND_Irish]

Originally Posted by Mikala43

Proof you've had it, not proof you are immune... they are still working that one out.

Plus, only 3 of the 16 antibody tests on the market are deemed reliable. Some have up to 16% false positives.

So it is okay for general community planning, not something you want to bet your life on.

So by your logic then vaccination for all kinds of viruses is sort of pointless if the production of antibodies in response to the vaccine not does provide immunity. From the first paragraph under "How Vaccines Work" in a CDC document entitled "Understanding How Vaccines Work":

"Vaccines help develop immunity by imitating an infection. This type of infection, however, almost never causes illness, but it does cause the immune system to produce T-lymphocytes and antibodies. Sometimes, after getting a vaccine, the imitation infection can cause minor symptoms, such as fever. Such minor symptoms are normal and should be expected as the body builds immunity."

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/con...lor-office.pdf

Your statement flies in the face of decades of virological research.

If you have not already seen it, you and your fellow leftists ought to view this interview with Dr. David Katz on Real Time with Bill Maher:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lze-rMYLf2E

Spoiler alert...he is not a fan of the president, but he sure seems to make a lot of sense by putting science before politics.

[ND_Irish]

Originally Posted by longviewJoe

Yes, I would not bet your life on this and people should stay home if they are compromised in any way. I actually heard on local news yesterday that the antibody tests have up to 50% false positives. Whatever the number (16 or 50%) it's too large to be deemed very reliable... on top of the problem of not yet knowing the answer the immunity question. Still a big mess!

Out of curiosity, who on the local news claims antibody testing is unreliable? As I recall you are in northern California, and there are several doctors at Stanford who have done, and continue to do, significant antibody testing. I find it somewhat hard to believe they would be doing all of their research if the antibody tests were significantly unreliable.

Also, are you in one of the counties that is going to be locked down through the end of May? What is the science being used to defend this action? What is your sense of how the population feels about this?

[lvmensch]

Originally Posted by ND_Irish

So by your logic then vaccination for all kinds of viruses is sort of pointless if the production of antibodies in response to the vaccine not does provide immunity. From the first paragraph under "How Vaccines Work" in a CDC document entitled "Understanding How Vaccines Work":

"Vaccines help develop immunity by imitating an infection. This type of infection, however, almost never causes illness, but it does cause the immune system to produce T-lymphocytes and antibodies. Sometimes, after getting a vaccine, the imitation infection can cause minor symptoms, such as fever. Such minor symptoms are normal and should be expected as the body builds immunity."


Your statement flies in the face of decades of virological research.

If you have not already seen it, you and your fellow leftists ought to view this interview with Dr. David Katz on Real Time with Bill Maher:


Spoiler alert...he is not a fan of the president, but he sure seems to make a lot of sense by putting science before politics.

I do not see your point. There has been significant discussion on how the antibody tests perform. I do not believe that anyone opposes a good test. It is just a difficult thing to get high performance.

Mikala's point was about the test not a vaccine. And given a vaccine you probably still need a good antibody test.