I-95 HOT Lanes aka "Toll road" (Fredericksburg, Occoquan: price, moving)

[johnsonkk]

Originally Posted by elias9193

I used the HOV express today around 3:00 pm going south. I got out at the 619 exit and the HOV lane was
backed up all the way from the Stafford merge all the way back to the Quantico exit a good 5 miles.
What a nightmare! Like I said in an earlier post, all they did was move the bottle neck to Stafford.

The main difference between the old and new bottle neck is that in 2015, some of the folks will be paying customers upwards of $25 to have the privilege of sitting in the HOT lanes bottle neck vs the free I95 bottleneck.

[Zack]

Originally Posted by johnsonkk

The main difference between the old and new bottle neck is that in 2015, some of the folks will be paying customers upwards of $25 to have the privilege of sitting in the HOT lanes bottle neck vs the free I95 bottleneck.

Once the tolls start, there shouldn't be backups on the toll lanes (regular lanes are a different story) at the final merge point since the tolls increase until traffic lets off regardless of price. The operator will simply jack up the price for that final segment to encourage enough users to get off the tolls lanes at the prior exits.

[ChristineVA]

Originally Posted by Zack

Once the tolls start, there shouldn't be backups on the toll lanes (regular lanes are a different story) at the final merge point since the tolls increase until traffic lets off regardless of price. The operator will simply jack up the price for that final segment to encourage enough users to get off the tolls lanes at the prior exits.

Except that remember, these toll roads are HOV and I95 has historically had very high HOV use. So, even before the "tolls", we had backups from the HOV where it ends to merge into regular traffic. Those carpoolers are NOT going away on Dec 29. So besides the regular, usual carpoolers (which will only increase not decrease with HOT) we will now have the toll-paying single riders. The backup will be there as usual.

[johnsonkk]

Originally Posted by Zack

Once the tolls start, there shouldn't be backups on the toll lanes (regular lanes are a different story) at the final merge point since the tolls increase until traffic lets off regardless of price. The operator will simply jack up the price for that final segment to encourage enough users to get off the tolls lanes at the prior exits.

I see your point but even if true, paying customers are not going to exit if they see the regular lanes at a standstill. They are going to continue their HOT lane route knowing they still are paying more to continue on the road with moving traffic. I predict that drivers will not remain silent when or if toll prices reach $25 each way. Something has to give and politicians will not sit idly by if the tolls become outrageous in an attempt to reduce ridership. If the toll company gets too greedy, something regulatory will be changed.

[NOVA_guy]

I was surprised when I realized that the people getting off at Garrisonville have to get off the Express Lanes and merge back on to 95 to take the exit... so essentially they've just moved the bottleneck from Dumfries to Quantico/Stafford.

[Zack]

Originally Posted by johnsonkk

I see your point but even if true, paying customers are not going to exit if they see the regular lanes at a standstill. They are going to continue their HOT lane route knowing they still are paying more to continue on the road with moving traffic. I predict that drivers will not remain silent when or if toll prices reach $25 each way. Something has to give and politicians will not sit idly by if the tolls become outrageous in an attempt to reduce ridership. If the toll company gets too greedy, something regulatory will be changed.

The price for the 495 HOT lanes reach $10-12 during rush hour for the full length and the 95 lanes are twice as long so $25 wouldn't be too outrageous to go from Stafford to Springfield.

What will likely happen is those later segments around 234 and 610 will get really expensive to drive whereas the earlier segments around Springfield and Lorton may not be so much on a per mile basis. 495 is like that where the busiest segments are more expensive than others.

[djplourd]

Originally Posted by johnsonkk

I see your point but even if true, paying customers are not going to exit if they see the regular lanes at a standstill. They are going to continue their HOT lane route knowing they still are paying more to continue on the road with moving traffic. I predict that drivers will not remain silent when or if toll prices reach $25 each way. Something has to give and politicians will not sit idly by if the tolls become outrageous in an attempt to reduce ridership. If the toll company gets too greedy, something regulatory will be changed.

The toll rates are supposed to be set when you first enter the lanes. Once you've decided to use the toll lanes there's no reason except maybe for an accident blocking the lanes to exit before your intended destination.

[airjay75]

Originally Posted by djplourd

The toll rates are supposed to be set when you first enter the lanes. Once you've decided to use the toll lanes there's no reason except maybe for an accident blocking the lanes to exit before your intended destination.

I could be mistaken but I believe that is only partially correct. My understanding is that the Fairfax County Parkway will serve as a dividing line and that the toll displayed when you enter the express lanes will only be good until the Fairfax County Parkway, after which time a new toll for the remaining length will be displayed and you will have to decide whether you want to continue in the lanes with that toll. This is different from the 495 express lanes where your toll will be locked in place once you enter the lanes for the entirety of the express lanes if you so choose to continue for the entire length.

Edit: I just looked at the FAQs on the 95 Express Lanes website. It says that whenever you see a toll sign, you will merely be locking in the toll displayed until the last exit displayed on that toll sign. With digital signs, this can easily change. I'm not sure where I got the FFX County Pkwy dividing line idea from - maybe that will be where the toll for the last stretch going northbound will generally be displayed. Regardless, it sounds like the toll rate for the entirety of the 95 Express Lanes will be in no way guaranteed when you enter the lanes and they will easily be able to increase the tolls if there starts to be a backup.

[djplourd]

I'm used to using the 495 express lanes. I didn't realize the 95 express lanes might have different rules.

[johnsonkk]

Originally Posted by airjay75

I could be mistaken but I believe that is only partially correct. My understanding is that the Fairfax County Parkway will serve as a dividing line and that the toll displayed when you enter the express lanes will only be good until the Fairfax County Parkway, after which time a new toll for the remaining length will be displayed and you will have to decide whether you want to continue in the lanes with that toll. This is different from the 495 express lanes where your toll will be locked in place once you enter the lanes for the entirety of the express lanes if you so choose to continue for the entire length.

Edit: I just looked at the FAQs on the 95 Express Lanes website. It says that whenever you see a toll sign, you will merely be locking in the toll displayed until the last exit displayed on that toll sign. With digital signs, this can easily change. I'm not sure where I got the FFX County Pkwy dividing line idea from - maybe that will be where the toll for the last stretch going northbound will generally be displayed. Regardless, it sounds like the toll rate for the entirety of the 95 Express Lanes will be in no way guaranteed when you enter the lanes and they will easily be able to increase the tolls if there starts to be a backup.

Can anyone imagine what other commerce changes after you buy. If airline tickets cost more after you bought because seats are getting short, that would be ridiculous. I can't imagine that the fidelity of I95 will require real time price updates. I thought I knew the FAQ but obviously not. There are over 80 FAQ posted on the Hot lane website. January will be interesting.