Covid virus in phoenix (Maricopa: cost of, safety, estimates)

[DetroitN8V]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

It's not a huge crisis when you consider that cancer affects far more people and costs many more lives than COVID 19 will ever do ... yet, I don't see everybody going into lockdown & hiding from the world over cancer. Of course, cancer isn't contagious like this virus is, but even so, the positive rate for COVID 19 amounts to less than 1% of the total population. If we didn't practice social distancing, it might have risen to a whopping 2% at the most, but imagine how this virus could have possibly been even more controlled with common sense practices such as cleanliness & better hygiene.

How do you know the rate of infection without mitigation efforts? It's impossible to speculate, but what we do know is that it's working.

[Garson]

They really need to be testing everyone to tell who has already had it and gotten over it without knowing it or experiencing major symptoms.
With current testing practices its impossible to know the rate of infection. It could be far worse than we know.

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

It depends on how you define it. I suppose 1% total death toll (doing nothing) by definition, is not a big deal. Some would say the actually "doing nothing" number is .5% while others say it is 3%. So yea, I pulled 1% out of my arse because no one knows. It sure the Hell wouldn't be 40K total unless we had a pretty big "social distancing effort".

So if a total of 40K died without social distancing in the USA until August, again I'd agree with you "no big deal" as compared to shutting down the country! Because there is a MASSIVE amount of pain to a lot of people including death (stress, suicide, etc). So it really boils down to what exactly happened during "social distancing" and how much that helped for round 1 of this battle. IF social distancing helped dramatically (that's what my eyes see), then this wasn't "hyped". Because rational people would never look at 40K deaths and conclude "why did we shut things down" and forget about the social distancing.

That said, there is a reason for this Mark Twain's phrase: There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. Because I can spin it any way I want if I want to prove any point. As I said earlier, 21% of the people who will die today in the USA is because of COVID 19. If we did nothing, it could have been a sh*t show!

There was always room to discuss what the ROI is for saving 1% of peoples lives. There IS a cost where it is worse. The only debate as at what point. Early data suggested 3.5% which most rational people know is extremely high.... NOW.

To clarify, are you differentiating dying 'with' the virus and 'from?'

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by DetroitN8V

How do you know the rate of infection without mitigation efforts? It's impossible to speculate, but what we do know is that it's working.

I'm sure about one thing: this government caused crisis (mandating stay at home orders, closing down businesses, and taking away our freedoms) is affecting every single one of us. In contrast, the virus itself is affecting maybe 1% of the total population at the most. Even in NYC, the number of confirmed cases is less than 1% of their population. Nobody wants to be sick from COVID 19, but I can't understand why anybody wants a nanny state either. It's unproductive, uncalled for, and most of all: UNAMERICAN.

[llowllevellowll]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

I'm sure about one thing: this government caused crisis (mandating stay at home orders, closing down businesses, and taking away our freedoms) is affecting every single one of us. In contrast, the virus itself is affecting maybe 1% of the total population at the most. Even in NYC, the number of confirmed cases is less than 1% of their population. Nobody wants to be sick from COVID 19, but I can't understand why anybody wants a nanny state either. It's unproductive, uncalled for, and most of all: UNAMERICAN.

This is absurdly illogical. I get the argument but you're leaving out the obvious. 1% wouldn't have been the total amount of affected had governments not stepped in and mitigated, so you don't get to use the 1% stat to your benefit if you want to complain about mitigation efforts. It might be that low BECAUSE of those efforts.

At least frame your scenario to play out with a shred of realism for us to go off of, otherwise, how can you get anyone to align with your argument?

[Elna Rae]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

As I said earlier, 21% of the people who will die today in the USA is because of COVID 19.

Innocent question with no pre-conceived concrete answer:

Without studying autopsy reports and knowing exact cause of death how do we know if that 21% is a legit number? Especially in light of Dr. Birx public statement (paraphrasing) that "Anyone who dies and tests positive for Covid-19 or hasn't been tested but has symptoms, will be considered a victim of Covid-19."

Say what?

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Elna Rae

Innocent question with no pre-conceived concrete answer:

Without studying autopsy reports and knowing exact cause of death how do we know if that 21% is a legit number? Especially in light of Dr. Birx public statement (paraphrasing) that "Anyone who dies and tests positive for Covid-19 or hasn't been tested but has symptoms, will be considered a victim of Covid-19."

Say what?

Fair enough. It could be less. I am taking the numbers on the websites at their word. Currently, it's a massively large percentage and it is going to get worse than better.

Originally Posted by Garson

They really need to be testing everyone to tell who has already had it and gotten over it without knowing it or experiencing major symptoms.
With current testing practices its impossible to know the rate of infection. It could be far worse than we know.

ABSOLUTLEY! Putting it another way IF we had fast tests, we could have known if locations like the PHX burbs (all spread out and "warmer") were overreacting. Right now, we are flying blind and possibly/probably are implementing social distancing too much. Not so with locations like South Korea and Taiwan.

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by Elna Rae

Innocent question with no pre-conceived concrete answer:

Without studying autopsy reports and knowing exact cause of death how do we know if that 21% is a legit number? Especially in light of Dr. Birx public statement (paraphrasing) that "Anyone who dies and tests positive for Covid-19 or hasn't been tested but has symptoms, will be considered a victim of Covid-19."

Say what?

This is actually taking us down yet another path of this whole thing: coding of victims. The Italians had this problem initially where something like 88% of the dead were coded as CV19 victims. Now in the States we're hearing what Dr. Birx said plus others making mention of better reimbursement from the government if deaths and treatments are coded as fighting CV19.

[Elna Rae]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ex-...irus-narrative

Yahtzee!


For those who say "Social distancing saved the day!"
It's the perfect scam. We'll never, ever, EVER know exactly how much of an impact SD really made. (Although I'm certainly all for it. It's shutting down businesses that I have a problem with.)

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by llowllevellowll

This is absurdly illogical. I get the argument but you're leaving out the obvious. 1% wouldn't have been the total amount of affected had governments not stepped in and mitigated, so you don't get to use the 1% stat to your benefit if you want to complain about mitigation efforts. It might be that low BECAUSE of those efforts.

At least frame your scenario to play out with a shred of realism for us to go off of, otherwise, how can you get anyone to align with your argument?

Because nobody has all the answers about this virus. With less social distancing, the afflicted rate might be a whopping 2%, or it could be higher or lower. The key word here is "might". My point is that while I believe we should take COVID 19 seriously, there is a limit to the seriousness, and at some point it reaches the panic & paranoia stages. We have already gone past those stages.

Here's a dose of realism for you: compare the afflicted >1% of the confirmed cases with the percentage rates of what the mitigation efforts have caused. We now have a 10% unemployment rate with a projected 15% rate by the end of the quarter. Some economists are predicting contractions in the second quarter of 30% or more. 24% of small businesses have closed down, and 54% of all small businesses report they are either closed or will close this month. The percentage of Americans who are seeing their freedoms scaled back: 100%!