Covid virus in phoenix (Tucson, Mesa: income, zip codes, safest)
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Why am I going through this exercise? Because the number isn't 1%. The number isn't 2%. If unmitigated, the number is much, much higher. I don't know the answer to this question and I am not asking it rhetorically, but the question is... given this information, where do you personally put the % for how many people you're comfortable dying when you weigh its importance with the health and well being of the market economy?
I honestly don't know the answer to that question myself, however, it must also be considered that the above percentages are with some level of mitigation efforts in mind. Remove those efforts and I fear you're working with a higher number. When coming to the debate, you should at the very least understand these underlying facts before concluding what should be done.
I never said some mitigation efforts aren't necessary. Of course we all need to do our part to prevent the spread, but is closing down everything and taking away our freedoms the right way to do it? The way I see it, the reaction to this virus is purely emotional ... stemming from fear, paranoia, and kneejerk reactions instead of common sense!
Instead of forcing people out of work and creating a deep economic downturn, how about a more logical approach, such as better cleanliness & hygiene among the workforce? If you're sick with anything contagious, STAY HOME and don't go out in public. Wash your hands frequently, and cover your face when sneezing or coughing. These basic manners begin at childhood. I can't begin to count the number of times I see or hear children coughing & sneezing with their mouths wide open, and their parents don't say a thing (likely because they practice the same dirty, ignorant habits themselves).
The number of confirmed cases is less than 1%, and I can't see how you can dispute this because it's basic math. All you have to do is take the number of confirmed cases & divide that figure into the population of a certain area, and you'll get the percentage. Even in NYC, it's less than 1% of the population. Nobody has any way of knowing what the percentage would be without the mitigation efforts, but I have doubts that it would be much higher than 1%.
We already have the figures of the unemployment rate, the number of businesses that had to close, and our national debt being ramped up another $2 trillion. Where do you personally put the % for how many people you're comfortable being out of work & financially distraught, and your basic liberties being swiped away when you weigh their importance with the small percentage afflicted with COVID 19?
I actually thought when this thing first went down that we'd see social strife on a level we haven't seen in a long time. It just hasn't materialized because you have so many people convinced that the lack of social safety nets isn't the problem; the problem is that we're not all running en masse back to work to literally kill our family members for the sake of wholesale profits. It's so robotic and disgusting.
I could think of any number of reasons for social strife over the last 3 years, and why hasn't it happened? Our government officials can sleep like babies every night knowing gutless Americans will never rival the Yellow Vests of France or the protesters in Chile.
Americans are more inclined to commit suicide, and the suicide rate will one day surpass the deaths from the Covid virus. Watch and see!
Our government officials just aren't listening: silence can be louder than a scream!
I never said some mitigation efforts aren't necessary. Of course we all need to do our part to prevent the spread, but is closing down everything and taking away our freedoms the right way to do it? The way I see it, the reaction to this virus is purely emotional ... stemming from fear, paranoia, and kneejerk reactions instead of common sense!
Instead of forcing people out of work and creating a deep economic downturn, how about a more logical approach, such as better cleanliness & hygiene among the workforce? If you're sick with anything contagious, STAY HOME and don't go out in public. Wash your hands frequently, and cover your face when sneezing or coughing. These basic manners begin at childhood. I can't begin to count the number of times I see or hear children coughing & sneezing with their mouths wide open, and their parents don't say a thing (likely because they practice the same dirty, ignorant habits themselves).
The number of confirmed cases is less than 1%, and I can't see how you can dispute this because it's basic math. All you have to do is take the number of confirmed cases & divide that figure into the population of a certain area, and you'll get the percentage. Even in NYC, it's less than 1% of the population. Nobody has any way of knowing what the percentage would be without the mitigation efforts, but I have doubts that it would be much higher than 1%.
We already have the figures of the unemployment rate, the number of businesses that had to close, and our national debt being ramped up another $2 trillion. Where do you personally put the % for how many people you're comfortable being out of work & financially distraught, and your basic liberties being swiped away when you weigh their importance with the small percentage afflicted with COVID 19?
Are you denying that the healthcare system in NYC is not on the verge of collapse or that it wouldn't be worse without the measures in place? NYC was our home before moving here. All of our friends and family are there and we know people who are sick, who work in healthcare, and obviously plenty who live there so we're not just getting our info from the media.
Your argument is about “projections”, involving countless variables and call it what you want but on some level it’s nothing more than “scientific guessing”. (Look at how well that’s gone with so-called “experts” so far. NEVER a good idea to display arrogance when forecasting future results.)
Toning down your condescending language may greatly help your cause. At this point it doesn’t appear that you’re winning the debate. Time will be the great equalizer in ultimately determining who is right. (I do find it fascinating in our current culture after the dust settles that bloviators are so unwilling to apologize when proven wrong. The media engage in this abhorrent behavior on a consistent basis.)
Tucson sounds like a good fit. Hope your employment situation turns around quickly.
As I mentioned before, without quality data, the experts are flying blind and by definition, have to make educated guesses. When you try to extrapolate data from other countries (some of which are hiding/lying) which have different variables like foods that they eat, massive swings in the percentage of smokers, types of drugs that they use, different hospital bed ratios, and concentrations of different ages, I purpose that you can never have accurate advice. Add to it that this a brand new virus. Results and recommendations were being modified by the week as half-hazard studies were being discussed. People were running scared and misinformation was being circulated. Or putting it another way, IF the people running the show )(our government) didn't screw around for a couple of months, the test data would have pointed to whatever the actual results really are. Hindsight is always 20-20. To this day, we are doing a lot of guessing because (drum roll) we don't have testing sampling data. Hopefully, that's coming in about a week.
Being balanced, you ALWAYS want to follow the money. Realize, WHO gets to play with a lot of money. Anytime you have the top of an organization that is political (in this case doctors and scientists), you better be suspicious of their data and motivations.
Because we don't have the data, maybe Valley Native's viewpoint is correct and we could have kept a big portion of the country open simply by people washing their damn hands correctly and stop touching their face to slow the virus waaaaay down. Again, we don't know because we don't have enough tests like Korea. Maybe we only "stay in place order" in higher density areas in combo with better hygiene. We don't know because we don't have the test data.
My point is "the supposed experts" weren't listened to for years. Playbooks that were written years ago were not implemented (shared equipment, shifting medical expertise across the country, getting fast test data, building PPE in the USA and stockpiling, etc).
It would be like me blaming you as a "lousy automotive parts manager" because you cannot see when parts are coming in because you don't have any MRP data: you cannot balance a line or JIT without data. Every single "supposed expert" looks stupid unless you think a little deeper. Meanwhile, we bleed trillions and ruin peoples businesses.
Last edited by MN-Born-n-Raised; 04-11-2020 at 05:57 AM..
Your argument is about “projections”, involving countless variables and call it what you want but on some level it’s nothing more than “scientific guessing”. (Look at how well that’s gone with so-called “experts” so far. NEVER a good idea to display arrogance when forecasting future results.)
Toning down your condescending language may greatly help your cause. At this point it doesn’t appear that you’re winning the debate. Time will be the great equalizer in ultimately determining who is right. (I do find it fascinating in our current culture after the dust settles that bloviators are so unwilling to apologize when proven wrong. The media engage in this abhorrent behavior on a consistent basis.)
Tucson sounds like a good fit. Hope your employment situation turns around quickly.
I’m a nurse in a dialysis clinic - the seventy? or so patients who visit my clinic every other day to stay alive are your neighbors and family. They’re not a “percentage” that can be reasonably sacrificed for convenience or “the greater good”. One could reasonably argue that their expected lifespan has already been shortened for convenience, cost savings and corporate profits. About 70-80% of them will be dead in less than five years, without the current pandemic.
When you start accepting the loss of 1-2 % of Americans, you’re accepting the loss of probably 15-20 people who I know personally and like (in just the next few months) because they have a much higher risk of death from this. Some of them are veterans, there are little old schoolteachers, guys who built roads and cars and drug dealers and preachers too. If you can put names and faces on the statistics “bloviating” on their behalf is the least you can do.
But, your math is miserable and you don't appear to be conceptualizing these events very well or understanding what's next. You're back to 1%ing again. You're not giving anyone a starting point to discuss these issues because you're in imaginary math land again.
For a long time, it's been assumed that 18%-50% of the people who get the virus never know it. That massive swing is because the data sucks. If you use the Sweeden's "Hurd" mentality (yet to be proven) it very well may be well under 1% mortality. Sweden remains an outlier and is relying their people to take responsibility. So as of now, schools, shops, and bars remain open with gatherings of up to 50 people still permitted. OBVIOUSLY their death rate is going to be higher than their neighbors. Unless they are missing something, they are banking on the death rate MUCH lower than 1%.
Sure, if you calculate the death rate = COVID deaths/positive cases, then your data will be heavily skewed on the high side. The most basic math shows that the denominator will lead you down a much more severe path. For a couple of weeks, they quoted 3.5% death rates which are positively inaccurate and high. So without the data, we just don't know. But it surely isn't 3.5% or anything close.
As for your story of unemployment etc. While I feel for you, that hardship gets less of a voice versus others. There has to be a balance in order to keep people's businesses alive based on what the current data (albeit flawed) is pointing too. So as the data is painfully patched together because of near-zero testing, I think we are clearly learning (Sweeden is going to confirm it possibly the hard way) that the mortality rate isn't even 1%.
I’m a nurse in a dialysis clinic - the seventy? or so patients who visit my clinic every other day to stay alive are your neighbors and family. They’re not a “percentage” that can be reasonably sacrificed for convenience or “the greater good”. One could reasonably argue that their expected lifespan has already been shortened for convenience, cost savings and corporate profits. About 70-80% of them will be dead in less than five years, without the current pandemic.
When you start accepting the loss of 1-2 % of Americans, you’re accepting the loss of probably 15-20 people who I know personally and like (in just the next few months) because they have a much higher risk of death from this. Some of them are veterans, there are little old schoolteachers, guys who built roads and cars and drug dealers and preachers too. If you can put names and faces on the statistics “bloviating” on their behalf is the least you can do.
Kudos to you for your work. Making an emotional argument is understandable but it's disingenuous to assume it's "either/or". If only it could be as simple as: "It's about saving lives, not the economy." Like all complex issues it involves compromise and striking a balance. A lot of people seem to be underestimating the mental and physical health issues tied to the economy. I'm puzzled when I hear the paranoia and panic about Wuflu but those same people don't seem to be the least bit worried concerning the devastating number of human casualties caused by a Depression.
Hopefully one of the results of this pandemic since by far most who are dying are in poor health, will be that Americans quite this obsession of eating and get their fat butts to the gym. 42% obesity rate? Absolutely outrageous and embarrassing.
It's time to get back to work in select industries while taking extreme precautions. Hot spots like NYC are the exception.
I’m a nurse in a dialysis clinic - the seventy? or so patients who visit my clinic every other day to stay alive are your neighbors and family. They’re not a “percentage” that can be reasonably sacrificed for convenience or “the greater good”. One could reasonably argue that their expected lifespan has already been shortened for convenience, cost savings and corporate profits. About 70-80% of them will be dead in less than five years, without the current pandemic.
When you start accepting the loss of 1-2 % of Americans, you’re accepting the loss of probably 15-20 people who I know personally and like (in just the next few months) because they have a much higher risk of death from this. Some of them are veterans, there are little old schoolteachers, guys who built roads and cars and drug dealers and preachers too. If you can put names and faces on the statistics “bloviating” on their behalf is the least you can do.
But there IS a number. Right? There has to be a balance between ethics and letting society roll along. A massive hit has already occurred.
The reality is we all were born terminal. I suspect when the numbers all roll in, people who didn't take care of themselves are going to represent the largest percentage of deaths. I have a mirror and this was a wake-up call for me. So far, I dropped 8 pounds and decided to drop another 10 pounds to hit my ideal weight. I was on a crash course for type 2 if I didn't change my ways. That's your discipline. You know that 100,000,000 Americans are currently type2 or prediabetic. https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2...es-report.html When the dust settles, that's where we are vulnerable. I'm not shifting the blame from the cause (wet markets who re-opened after SAR's) to fat people. But dying is a reality for all of us and statistically, we have a say in the outcome!
Read this in the right tone. I'm not saying "cooperate profits" rule. I'm saying society HAS to put a price on a life. It's a cost-benefit analysis. Medicine does it all the time. "sorry 60 year old, no liver transplant for you as it is going to a 39 year old and a mother of 2." These are ethical ramifications that no one wants to think about. To me at least, we need to be balanced. AND we need to take some personal responsibility as to why we as a country are becoming unhealthy. Don't shoot the messenger as it needs to be discussed.
Kudos to you for your work. Making an emotional argument is understandable but it's disingenuous to assume it's "either/or". If only it could be as simple as: "It's about saving lives, not the economy." Like all complex issues it involves compromise and striking a balance. A lot of people seem to be underestimating the mental and physical health issues tied to the economy. I'm puzzled when I hear the paranoia and panic about Wuflu but those same people don't seem to be the least bit worried concerning the devastating number of human casualties caused by a Depression.
Hopefully one of the results of this pandemic since by far most who are dying are in poor health, will be that Americans quite this obsession of eating and get their fat butts to the gym. 42% obesity rate? Absolutely outrageous and embarrassing.
It's time to get back to work in select industries while taking extreme precautions. Hot spots like NYC are the exception.
Start back to work in the current testing situation of hard to get diagnostics and non-existent antibody tests, lack of plans, personnel and methodology to do case contract tracing, no plan at all for quarantine of positives, and you will have "New York" everywhere and another shutdown. The lessons learned in 1918, apply to 2020.
In reality, because New York is in the vanguard of testing and planning for recovery they should be among the first to return to the new normal. Our own state will be among the last. We are not near our peak in cases and can't even do diagnostic testing much less all that is needed for control after restart.
Start back to work in the current testing situation of hard to get diagnostics and non-existent antibody tests, lack of plans, personnel and methodology to do case contract tracing, no plan at all for quarantine of positives, and you will have "New York" everywhere and another shutdown. The lessons learned in 1918, apply to 2020.
In reality, because New York is in the vanguard of testing and planning for recovery they should be among the first to return to the new normal. Our own state will be among the last. We are not near our peak in cases and can't even do diagnostic testing much less all that is needed for control after restart.
More paranoia.
You don't actually know with absolute certainty. Why do you talk like you do?
Our "essential" biz hasn't missed a beat since this started but our precautions are as strict as anyone's (Considered over the top by some!) I won't be coerced or threatened to have it any other way and I hope other business owners do the same.
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Anytime you have the top of an organization that is political (in this case doctors and scientists), you better be suspicious of their data and motivations. 
