Covid virus in phoenix (weddings, movie theaters, codes)

[DetroitN8V]

Originally Posted by asufan

We really need to see "per capita" as well. For instance my zip has 17 cases but something like 33,000 people. A zip just east of downtown has "5-10 cases" and 5,500 people. Another along Central Ave has 9,000 people and more than 10 cases. If some of those zips were combined it would be a more apples to apples comparison

True. Downtown does seem to have a lot of zip codes. Mine has 29 cases but 41k people.

[asufan]

Originally Posted by DetroitN8V

True. Downtown does seem to have a lot of zip codes. Mine has 29 cases but 41k people.

Even the one that has 61 cases in NW Peoria isn't THAT much of an outlier in my opinion. I was sort of expecting to see one hot spot with 300+ cases or something.

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by DetroitN8V

True. Downtown does seem to have a lot of zip codes. Mine has 29 cases but 41k people.

Interesting pure-statistical take on things -

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/100-t...204833052.html

“ Basically, when a country reports its first COVID-19 death, we know that there must be around 25,000 other infected people within the country spreading this virus freely.”

According to this author, if you catch the first death from covid, you have 25,000 infected people in your area.. If you misinterpret the first death, (someone who died at home, had multiple other reasons to die).. then you might well have 50 or 100,000 people spreading the disease.

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by asufan

Even the one that has 61 cases in NW Peoria isn't THAT much of an outlier in my opinion. I was sort of expecting to see one hot spot with 300+ cases or something.

You won’t see areas with 300+ cases until the tests are actually conducted.. you gotta have tests to get positives..

[belgirl]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

Interesting pure-statistical take on things -

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/100-t...204833052.html

“ Basically, when a country reports its first COVID-19 death, we know that there must be around 25,000 other infected people within the country spreading this virus freely.”

According to this author, if you catch the first death from covid, you have 25,000 infected people in your area.. If you misinterpret the first death, (someone who died at home, had multiple other reasons to die).. then you might well have 50 or 100,000 people spreading the disease.

Well if the numbers stay this low in AZ, then that's good for us. That means more herd immunity and we can end this sooner.

However, I don't think anyone can truly KNOW how many are infected without testing every single person and that ain't ever gonna happen.

[KurtAZ]

Originally Posted by belgirl

Well if the numbers stay this low in AZ, then that's good for us. That means more herd immunity and we can end this sooner.

However, I don't think anyone can truly KNOW how many are infected without testing every single person and that ain't ever gonna happen.

Seems Harmony Healthcare is doing COVID Antibody testing as part of their Full Body assessment. I think as people go in and get their yearly physicals, if they run an antibody test at the same time we may have decent numbers a couple of years from now.

[llowllevellowll]

Originally Posted by belgirl

Well if the numbers stay this low in AZ, then that's good for us. That means more herd immunity and we can end this sooner.

However, I don't think anyone can truly KNOW how many are infected without testing every single person and that ain't ever gonna happen.

Numbers staying low doesn't mean herd immunity; it means we're delaying reaching herd immunity. I think that's a good thing, but also, don't allow it to lull you into an unrealistic reality.

My personal feeling is that the government (and other governments too) have run us around in circles to drum up in-fighting, speculation, and enough blame on eachother (phantom debates between conservatives and liberals, for instance) because the government is afraid to tell us that there is no vaccine coming. By the time there's a vaccine, it'll be too late and peons like us won't be the ones receiving it when it is ready.

The most likely scenario here is that everyone in the U.S. will get COVID at least once over the next 18 months. Many will get it twice (this is already happening) and maybe some may get it three times. Those that survive will have stronger antibodies and many of us won't be around.

That's sort of what happens when governments and people around the world take collective naps for decades and the collective response is genuine apathy and disbelief.

[kell490]

The antibody test, and immunoglobulin therapy will be the key to getting the economy going again. Later a vaccine could also come into play. The key is treating people who have severe illness that can be done in shorter time period with the immunoglobulin treatment much like Rabies is treated.

https://www.contagionlive.com/news/h...n-case-reports

[KurtAZ]

And there is this lab: https://ktar.com/story/3075992/scott...P6P5-7tLxUyPFg

[cactusland]

The antibody test will be good enough. If a family who has had close contact has one person who was ill tested, then it can be safely assumed if they were not isolated from the rest of the family that the rest of them either are fine/immune/had it/whatever and don't need to be tested as well. A majority tested will be good enough. I am looking forward to the antibody test so we can get all of this over with and move on with our lives.