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Before the shutdown I would have agreed the Dems could lose seats. But with the Tea party and republicans talking about primary challenges, and the shutdown....I think the Dems will win this next set of election by a slim amount. Not enough to gain control of both house and senate though. So the same status qou, just by slimmer margins.
As we get closer better data will be available to make bets with.
The 5 dem senate retirees are in mostly rural states.
If you look at any of the analytics these were longtime dem senators in largely red states. That's a really really tough hill to climb for some noob.
If you think the shutdown got voters in those states attention more than the gun control talk....and that the NRA isn't going to be out reminding everyone.....I have a bridge named Daaschle to sell ya.
Lastly, Obamacare.
Why do you think they waited until after the 2012 election to implement? Every political strategist I've heard has stated the voter fallout of such a major disruption.
The 5 dem senate retirees are in mostly rural states.
If you look at any of the analytics these were longtime dem senators in largely red states. That's a really really tough hill to climb for some noob.
If you think the shutdown got voters in those states attention more than the gun control talk....and that the NRA isn't going to be out reminding everyone.....I have a bridge named Daaschle to sell ya.
Lastly, Obamacare.
Why do you think they waited until after the 2012 election to implement? Every political strategist I've heard has stated the voter fallout of such a major disruption.
Until we are closer its a tossup. I think the ACA would have a impact today, but I don't think the impacts going to be there in 2014.
And the gun control talk is going nowhere. Seriously, even a lot of the Democrat constituency is against it, and any person running for a seat is going to toe the line to match his potential voters.
Last year they thought they would pick up 2 senate seats going in, then they shot themselves in the foot with nasty primarys that in the end resulted in a two seat loss.
Question to you GOP'ers (and anyone else) - Help me understand why the GOP is so ignorant and seems to wish to become a permanent minority party. The decisions by the GOP are quite strange to me, their recent actions don't reflect of a party that has any desire to be a real national party and they consistently vote against the interests of their constituents.
1. Pushing Amnesty - I never understood why there was such an interest by the GOP to bring in millions of people who will likely never vote for the GOP. National polls have shown this, even when the GOP panders exclusively to them. Yet, McCain, and other GOP leaders have a fetish for cheap labor, even if it means destroying the party's ability to ever win a national election again. I understand why the Democrats want it, it will swell their constituency, but the GOP is fooling themselves if they think they'll get any real electoral benefit from mass amnesty. To me, it is strange almost laughable.
2. Sequestration- The GOP votes for Sequestration, and puts up cuts that seriously hurt their interests (namely defense), while the impact to Democrat interests under Sequestration are much more limited. When presented the opportunity to lift sequestration caps during the shutdown, they stubbornly hold to them and willingly continued to cut their nose to spite their face. Again, very strange.
3. Affordable Healthcare and the government shutdown - Rather than making their protest known and capitalizing on the frustrations and negative experiences with the roll out of the ACA, they chose to shutdown the government to make a point. Shifting all the attention away from the problems for nearly a month, they did more to further marginalize themselves in the eyes of the American Electorate.
Worse, instead of offering a viable solution to the ACA or modifying it, they simply wanted to dismantle it. I can't see how this would ever play to the national electorate. Essentially, no matter what your political ideology, the idea of keeping the current broken system, fighting getting more people health insurance coverage and shutting down the government to do so seems like a crazy political strategy.
I can't see how the GOP will be a relevant national party in 10 years, maybe much sooner.
And here were are just one year later.
I warned you, that's an awful lot of hubris.
Saw the republicans saying the same garbage back in 2004.
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