What would happen if Trump deports all the illegals when he's elected?

[berdee]

Originally Posted by dv1033

Because the $106 billion would be their figure 13 years after we would hypothetically have granted amnesty to every illegal and provided them with today's entitlements. Possible sure, but any meaningful reform to one or more of medicaid, medicare, or SSN would end up having a large cost savings over 13 years and beyond.

My $54.5 I quoted was based on current laws during the time of the study. Here in 2016, Obama's plan to amnesty 5 million, not every illegal, is still tied up in courts.

I am talking about actually costs, not hypothetical costs 13 years after hypothetical legislation.

Yeah that $106 billion AND the $160 billion that the illegals would end up costing us whether they stay as illegals or are amnestied in - the illegals/amnestied would never make enough to come anywhere close to covering those amounts.

But, to get back to the figures that Heritage puts out there..

"Under current law, all unlawful immigrant households together have an aggregate annual deficit of around $54.5 billion." Per Heritage, that $54.5 billion is the amount after the illegals pay taxes, and not the full amount that is paid out in freebies.

"In 2010, the average unlawful immigrant household received around $24,721 in government benefits and services while paying some $10,334 in taxes. This generated an average annual fiscal deficit (benefits received minus taxes paid) of around $14,387 per household."

Heritage claims an illegal family receive $24,721 per year ($2060 per month) in freebies.
Heritage claims that the illegal family pays $10,334 per year in taxes (how can they even qualify for freebies if they make so much income that they pay more than $10k per year in taxes?). Heritage then states that after taxes the amount the illegal family receives per year is only $14,387.

Heritage is deducting almost half of the freebie amount that the illegals receive to get their total of $54.5 billion per year.
Where is Heritage coming up with that tax figure? Since..
Some illegals don't work, don't pay taxes, and live completely off of freebies.
Some illegals work under the table, don't pay taxes, and also live off of freebies.
Some illegals use stolen or forged ID's to get work, and many probably won't file taxes using the stolen/forged ID's, and also live off of freebies - though some may file taxes which ends up screwing the person who they stole the ID's from. And, since they are using stolen/forged ID's how can Heritage follow the tax money trail?

The $54.5 billion that Heritage claims is the amount that the illegals receive in freebies is misleading. It would/should be closer to $90 billion. Add a few more years, more illegals, more money going out in freebies and you'd probably get to the $113 billion that FAIR is claiming they are costing us. (The figure from Heritage is 6 years old, the figure from FAIR is 3 years old .. no telling how much more they are actually costing us in freebies in today's dollars)

I call b.s. on the amounts that Heritage is listing.

I'll pass on that source. At least Heritage has to stand up to scrutiny, the "Federation For American Immigration Reform" answers to who exactly?

Heritage has to stand up to scrutiny by who? They are just a data mining group that sells the info that they gather. They are in no way affiliated with the government. FAIR is the same.

[dv1033]

Originally Posted by berdee

Yeah that $106 billion AND the $160 billion that the illegals would end up costing us whether they stay as illegals or are amnestied in - the illegals/amnestied would never make enough to come anywhere close to covering those amounts.

But, to get back to the figures that Heritage puts out there..

"Under current law, all unlawful immigrant households together have an aggregate annual deficit of around $54.5 billion." Per Heritage, that $54.5 billion is the amount after the illegals pay taxes, and not the full amount that is paid out in freebies.

"In 2010, the average unlawful immigrant household received around $24,721 in government benefits and services while paying some $10,334 in taxes. This generated an average annual fiscal deficit (benefits received minus taxes paid) of around $14,387 per household."

Heritage claims an illegal family receive $24,721 per year ($2060 per month) in freebies.
Heritage claims that the illegal family pays $10,334 per year in taxes (how can they even qualify for freebies if they make so much income that they pay more than $10k per year in taxes?). Heritage then states that after taxes the amount the illegal family receives per year is only $14,387.

Heritage is deducting almost half of the freebie amount that the illegals receive to get their total of $54.5 billion per year.
Where is Heritage coming up with that tax figure? Since..
Some illegals don't work, don't pay taxes, and live completely off of freebies.
Some illegals work under the table, don't pay taxes, and also live off of freebies.
Some illegals use stolen or forged ID's to get work, and many probably won't file taxes using the stolen/forged ID's, and also live off of freebies - though some may file taxes which ends up screwing the person who they stole the ID's from. And, since they are using stolen/forged ID's how can Heritage follow the tax money trail?

The $54.5 billion that Heritage claims is the amount that the illegals receive in freebies is misleading. It would/should be closer to $90 billion. Add a few more years, more illegals, more money going out in freebies and you'd probably get to the $113 billion that FAIR is claiming they are costing us. (The figure from Heritage is 6 years old, the figure from FAIR is 3 years old .. no telling how much more they are actually costing us in freebies in today's dollars)

I call b.s. on the amounts that Heritage is listing.

Because illegal immigrants do pay taxes... They pay property taxes and sales taxes as well.

Illegal immigration has stagnated.

Heritage has to stand up to scrutiny by who? They are just a data mining group that sells the info that they gather. They are in no way affiliated with the government. FAIR is the same.

Seriously? Heritage is an actual think tank since the early 1970's with an actual budget. FAIR isn't anywhere close to that as it doesn't take much to actual start an "online federation" and make it seem academic.

I don't agree with Heritage usually but they are a few steps above FAIR and their flyby federation.

[lvmensch]

These numbers are all examples of how to cook the books. First problem is they make irrational assumptions. They take the total cost of a service, say education, and charge it back to the illegals as a per head cost. That of course is not how it works. You need to work out the incremental cost of the illegal not the per capita total cost. Put it this way. If you in fact deported a 100 illegals from Los Angeles the cost of education in LA would remain exactly the same. Same with the police.

And in order to realized the projected savings you cannot replace the deported. If you move more people into LA to replace the missing workers not only would your costs not go down but it would likely go up due to the more expensive legals.

As well there are long term benefits from the illlegals and their progeny. These need to be accounted for.

There are a number of good studies of the cost of illegals by many authorities including the government. Basically it is a small bill. There is a problem that should be fixed. The Feds make money off illegals while states and local government loses a lot. That ought to be fixed

[Rambler123]

Originally Posted by TBCasino

He won't, his hotels aren't gonna clean themselves.

So true. It boggles the mind how anyone can vote for Trump. While I have zero respect for him or Clinton, the nasty reality is that any negative attribute one can assign to Clinton (egotistical, thinks he/she is above the law, has no empathy, is ruthless, etc.) also applies to Trump... except with him you get a whole heaping of gross ignorance, total political inexperience, depressing immaturity, and some bigotry as the cherry on top. By any objective standard, he is the vastly inferior candidate of the two, although that is like saying he's smellier road apple.

As for deporting illegals, it'll never happen. More importantly, nobody in charge is going to go after the big businesses that are hiring the illegals. People need to stop pretending the illegals are the problem - they are not. If companies weren't willing to hire illegals, pay them under the table, and sweep the whole criminal enterprise under the rug, there wouldn't be any illegals here.

Job's don't magically show up for illegal aliens; wages don't magically go down when they show up with nobody being able to do anything about it. No - business runs this nasty modern form of indentured servitude, so until we get leaders who are willing to take on Big Business, nothing will change. Too bad Sanders probably won't win it; he's not perfect, but at least he might have been up to the challenge.