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Lots of good economic news coming out lately. Market is up, unemployment is way down, yuge and unexpected profits in many sectors, interest rates are stable, housing rising again, and talks of more tax cuts and making middle class cuts permanent. Winning!
Lots of good economic news coming out lately. Market is up, unemployment is way down, yuge and unexpected profits in many sectors, interest rates are stable, housing rising again, and talks of more tax cuts and making middle class cuts permanent. Winning!
Hard to say, but I'm guessing you don't include the "other side of the story" because you don't know what it is?
Or confirmation bias perhaps? Or maybe the typical one-sided perspective driven by ego and partisan agenda rather than balanced reason and logic?
No doubt all the above that continues to confuse and intoxicate too many Americans who just don't know better and/or can't seem to help themselves. The Kool Aid just tastes too good to care what's in it...
Those who say Trump doesn't move the market should look closely. Based on the actual economy, this market should easily be into double digits YTD. Look at Apple and Tesla and all other others - big time positive reports.
I dont know why you continue to embarrass yourself with such dumb statements that are easily disproven
which "market"? The DOW bro isnt the only market.
Apple and Tesla are not part of the DOW, they are in the NASDAQ, which has hit what? 30 all-time closing highs this year?
there is your double digital gain YTD in a major market index
check out the Shanghai market, they are down about 20% peak to trough...now someone that doesn't study markets will say that has to do with tariffs, when it doesn't.
I dont know why you continue to embarrass yourself with such dumb statements that are easily disproven
which "market"? The DOW bro isnt the only market.
Apple and Tesla are not part of the DOW, they are in the NASDAQ, which has hit what? 30 all-time closing highs this year?
Don't be silly!
The S&P is quite indicative of the market. We are talking the US Market as a Whole, right?
Not only is it STILL not up even normal for this YTD, but many are predicting it won't be....
My portfolio is easily in 100's, if not more, companies (mutual funds, buffet and more)....and big enough to be a good indicator (mostly US, conservative, etc.).....
The real point here is that anyone who says the US Stock Market (or markets) is BOOMING is very wrong. If they say the bond market is booming they are ever more wrong (interest rates going up means bonds go down). Housing starts are down.
You can cheery pick whatever you want. The accurate point is clear - the markets, and that is what most investors hold (through IRA, etc.) is not YUGELY up. That's fake news. In fact, the markets are doing rather poorly in 2018 compared to how they should be doing...and much of the blame falls directly on Trump fake chaos.
OK, so here is my report.....this is doing better than many this year, because this account contains FANG and some riskier stocks.
OK, so I made about 4.5% in 7+ months - again, in an account that includes Apple, Tesla, Amazon and some others - plus 100's of other stocks...and only a very few bonds or cash.
The very same accounts......have made over 11% a year measured for 10 years...or 15 years in one case.
The makeup of these accounts has not changed much.....
Summary: the entire premise of this thread is incorrect. Not only that, but many who are in the know say that we are unlikely to see big gains (and may even see big corrections).....
We can also look at the 10 year and make another accurate statement. I made more under Obama....even including all the effects of the Great Recession. I made more looking back even further to include all the effects of the great recession!
The math isn't hard. We can round it up to make it easier - I make about 1% a month historically for 15 years. In fact, I made that for 30+ years...just that the records online don't go back that far.
Yet in the first 7 months of this year, instead of 7%, I made 35% less than that (4.4% or so)....
You can cherry pick all you want. A real boom stock market is double digits....and well into them....on the DOW and S&P. Historical averages are 10%
"According to historical records, the average annual return for the S&P 500 since its inception in 1928 through 2017 is approximately 10%"
So, we can say with truth:
1. 2018 is below average
2. 2018 is way below my average
3. 2018 is far below DOW averages
4. By no market measure is 2018 a boom year.
You can't dispute that except to say you found a $100 bill on the curb last night so your stocks are doing great.
BTW, my more conservative accounts (located at another brokerage) - which are all mutual funds and about 40% bonds, money markets and a little cash - are up less than 3%. That might be a more typical return for most people who have managed assets in an IRA, etc.
Seems you're all over the board with this comment, but markets will never stop reacting, to; global economic trends, domestic economic indicators, consumer spending, interest rates, cost of crude, currency valuations, employment numbers, inflation rates, tax levels, labor disputes, trade balances, commodity prices, what the Fed will do, earnings reports, military conflicts, natural disasters, etc., just for starters, and yes..., politics that affect any of the above.
Amidst all these factors, what credit anyone wants to give the POTUS is rarely backed up with any sort of real justification and usually not much more than a partisan shell game.
Well, I surely have experienced all of the above since starting to invest in about 1980.....
Most of these factors don't figure in much - realistically. I'm going to invest in stocks whether or not I pay capital gains taxes of 15 or 20 or 28...or even personal income tax rates.
Now, if interest rates on CD's and T-Bills go up way over 5 or 6%, that might sway my thinking a bit. But it's been over 25 years since we've seen large upwards trends on those.
Throughout ALL the stuff you mentioned above, my returns have stayed relatively even. So the Bogleheads are correct - just stay the course.
Of course, if one wants to turn on the financial cable stations or wrap themselves up in it full time, it always seems like this and that are happening. But, in the end, it's really a question of whether a company is making sales....and/or a profit...and what their prospects are.
I think the biggest point with Trump is that chaos, indecision and lack of market knowledge is causing him to be his own worst enemy. Left to itself, the market he inherited would likely be up more than it is...especially this year (when he started with the tariff threats and warmongering and whatever else)...
I've found the same with lots of things in life...the more I fiddle with them, the worst they get.
My camp is with the Republicans. You know, those who prayed at the altar of free trade....which, of course, they weren't serious about. Seems like that is the case with most every platform they claimed to stand on (balanced budget, etc.)...
Trump was holding back this year's gains to time the midterms. He's starting to release and we should see huge gains through November.
Damn! Trump has a magic wand he can use to control the stock market. Earnings, interest rates, economic conditions, etc.? Meaningless. It all comes down to Trump and his magic wand.
Well, I surely have experienced all of the above since starting to invest in about 1980.....
Most of these factors don't figure in much - realistically. I'm going to invest in stocks whether or not I pay capital gains taxes of 15 or 20 or 28...or even personal income tax rates.
Now, if interest rates on CD's and T-Bills go up way over 5 or 6%, that might sway my thinking a bit. But it's been over 25 years since we've seen large upwards trends on those.
Throughout ALL the stuff you mentioned above, my returns have stayed relatively even. So the Bogleheads are correct - just stay the course.
Of course, if one wants to turn on the financial cable stations or wrap themselves up in it full time, it always seems like this and that are happening. But, in the end, it's really a question of whether a company is making sales....and/or a profit...and what their prospects are.
I think the biggest point with Trump is that chaos, indecision and lack of market knowledge is causing him to be his own worst enemy. Left to itself, the market he inherited would likely be up more than it is...especially this year (when he started with the tariff threats and warmongering and whatever else)...
I've found the same with lots of things in life...the more I fiddle with them, the worst they get.
My camp is with the Republicans. You know, those who prayed at the altar of free trade....which, of course, they weren't serious about. Seems like that is the case with most every platform they claimed to stand on (balanced budget, etc.)...
I see you love this subject and unfortunately your comments tend to perpetuate this thread, the title of which drew me here because I always try to separate fact from fiction where it seems needed and important. That said, I always make the point as well that no one changes their mind about anything here, so why do I bother? Just a way to waste a little time while waking up in the morning I suppose...
Again you lose me a bit with much you write, like having experienced all you say you have experienced since you started investing. Just FYI, I started investing at a young age, as soon as I was able to divert some of my income to employer-matched tax deferred contributions to my 401K. Then later with my own after-tax investments, as a day-trader and investor in other than stocks as well. I am fortunate and happy to say I've done well. Well enough to be comfortably retired now, living off the returns of those investments. Though we agree on the overall benefit of "staying the course," anyone who doesn't re-evaluate and adjust their investment portfolio along the way is something like a company that doesn't continuously redo it's one, five and ten year business plan on a regular basis.
I get the feeling you don't understand my comments either. The influence of all those factors I listed is not something we "experience" first-hand or personally. I was referring to what the markets react to, always, in ways investors like us really can't know. What may not "factor in" for you personally is not what I'm referring to when making a comment about what drives the financial markets, stock markets. You may not care what the capital gains tax rates may be, for example, but you can bet many companies and investors do! To the tune of billions of dollars involved. I don't think that's you or me. Right? How the "movers and shakers" react to any of those factors that matter to the tune of billions of dollars is what matters, what moves the markets, and we simply go along for the ride, sometimes for better, sometimes not so much.
You may not personally care what the Fed does to the federal funds rate as another example, but ever notice what happens in the markets when the Fed announces what it will do? Or not do? Every one of those factors have their short-term and long-term significant affects on the markets.
Bottom line point, for me anyway, again with respect to the title of this thread specifically, anyone who knows how all the many factors can and do affect the markets should know better than to give Trump the sort of credit for our economy in the short time Trump has been in office, all else considered. The DJIA is really not a legitimate report card for the POTUS or any party for that matter. History has taught that lesson well.
The S&P is quite indicative of the market. We are talking the US Market as a Whole, right?
Not only is it STILL not up even normal for this YTD, but many are predicting it won't be....
My portfolio is easily in 100's, if not more, companies (mutual funds, buffet and more)....and big enough to be a good indicator (mostly US, conservative, etc.).....
The real point here is that anyone who says the US Stock Market (or markets) is BOOMING is very wrong. If they say the bond market is booming they are ever more wrong (interest rates going up means bonds go down). Housing starts are down.
Yet in the first 7 months of this year, instead of 7%, I made 35% less than that (4.4% or so)....
You can cherry pick all you want. A real boom stock market is double digits....and well into them....on the DOW and S&P. Historical averages are 10%
"According to historical records, the average annual return for the S&P 500 since its inception in 1928 through 2017 is approximately 10%"
So, we can say with truth:
1. 2018 is below average
2. 2018 is way below my average
3. 2018 is far below DOW averages
4. By no market measure is 2018 a boom year.
You can't dispute that except to say you found a $100 bill on the curb last night so your stocks are doing great.
BTW, my more conservative accounts (located at another brokerage) - which are all mutual funds and about 40% bonds, money markets and a little cash - are up less than 3%. That might be a more typical return for most people who have managed assets in an IRA, etc.
Isn't the S&P 500 total return index up around 7% YTD? I wouldn't say that's below average. Nasdaq is up around 13% YTD, that's well above average. When everyone thinks those returns are subpar, that's the kind of talk around the top of a market.
The S&P is quite indicative of the market. We are talking the US Market as a Whole, right?
you keep moving/changing the goal posts, sweet hypocrisy
you were talking about the DOW bro, cherry picked 2 tickers then complained about the market not being up double digits even though the NASDAQ is up double digits and are now trying to spin the discussion to the S&P. Your head must be spinning as much as the NeverTrumpers.
me, silly? for proving you wrong using facts routinely in this thread?
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