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Old 08-14-2018, 10:13 AM
 
5,938 posts, read 4,700,933 times
Reputation: 4631

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Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
I agree 100%, which is why I earlier quoted 5 year, 10 year and since 2003. Based on that we are doing average.....right?

<cut for space>
If we simply declared the best president on the economy is always the one where the DJIA is the highest... then the current President should always be the best ever. Generally speaking, the markets trend upwards over long periods of time. Man, that FDR - terrible president. Worst ever. The DJIA was only 1000 when he was President. Failure! Sad...

I think you hit the nail on the head. I've also said it on other threads, but it tends to fall on deaf ears. Major economic indicators pretty much show a continuation of the last 10 years. How come the inadequate Obama economy is suddenly the "Bestest evah" Trump Economy? Unemployment rates is a clear trendline down, markets gaining at similar rates, GDP has had a spike... but for the "greatest president ever" shouldn't there be GDP greater than Obama's 4.9% in Q3 2014?

There is no doubt that 4%+ GDP last quarter is great. It is great. Look at the GDP chart here:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP

Set the bounds to 2009 to present. It is pretty much a straight line.

The economy was doing better before Trump started hitting buttons and pulling random levers. Tax cuts and tariffs stalled a booming economy.

I'm still waiting for middle class incomes to spike. Corporations are making more money due to the steepest tax cuts favoring them. Where's that trickle down that was the premise for these tax cuts to the 1%? The middle class is still waiting to reap the benefits...

 
Old 08-14-2018, 10:18 AM
 
12,772 posts, read 7,980,917 times
Reputation: 4332
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Just a quick reminder - Bill Clinton - MAGA.....these are the returns during his reign. I'm not even going to attempt to do the compounded numbers, but suffice it to say they are MANY TIMES what returns will be during the Dumps reign. Look at those numbers. Wow......just doing a quickie compounding on them averaging.....that's a 450% increase. For the math challenged, that would mean about DOW 90,000 would equal Bill Clintons years. Are we headed that way? A long way to go....

1993 10.08
1994 1.32
1995 37.58
1996 22.96
1997 33.36
1998 28.57
1999 21.05
Don't forget, it wasn't Clinton that invented the Internet, that was Al Gore, so he gets the credit for this if you wan't to play this incredibly ignorant game of who to falsely assign credit to for individuals running successful businesses over an arbitrary period of time.
 
Old 08-14-2018, 10:31 AM
 
29,551 posts, read 9,725,771 times
Reputation: 3472
Quote:
Originally Posted by phma View Post
You are !!!

Facts got ya down or ...............what exactly ?

Meanwhile the market is headed south for the day so far. Anyone care to celebrate ?

25,000 is in sight again. I may find a buy in point.
You are right of course...

Then again, how many times have I noted how these threads and comments don't make a bit of difference to anyone? Don't know of any threads that prove that truth better than this one.

I wish you could understand how silly your comments tend to be when it comes to all I have tried to explain to you along with others in this thread. All to no avail of course, and even if no one wants to listen to other than their own choir, repeating ourselves is even more silly. So I won't.

Facts got me down? I can't even understand what that question can mean all considered. You mean the fact the stock market is up? I'm certainly enjoying a better ROI than when the markets are down. Again it's awfully hard to make sense of your comments and/or logic here, but next is the easier question to understand.

"Anyone care to celebrate?"

Not me, for reasons I doubt you would understand any better, but over the course of many years following the markets and investing, I know better than to celebrate the ups or overreact to ups or downs in general.

Good luck with your effort to "find a buy point" right now. Are you celebrating these highs while looking for a "buy in point" when for many who are truly enjoying handsome returns bought in a long time ago? For most people who did invest at the right time some time ago, the question is more about when to sell, "profit taking," and then to buy in again when that time is done.

Trying to "time the market" is a fool's game however, so again..., good luck with that.
 
Old 08-14-2018, 10:37 AM
 
29,551 posts, read 9,725,771 times
Reputation: 3472
Quote:
Originally Posted by t206 View Post
Don't forget, it wasn't Clinton that invented the Internet, that was Al Gore, so he gets the credit for this if you wan't to play this incredibly ignorant game of who to falsely assign credit to for individuals running successful businesses over an arbitrary period of time.
Some people prefer games of pure chance and others prefer games of skill. Would be interesting to see research into why people are different in this regard. I have a guess or two...

Just FYI. I agree with you, and you're wasting your time.
 
Old 08-14-2018, 10:38 AM
 
12,772 posts, read 7,980,917 times
Reputation: 4332
Quote:
Originally Posted by LearnMe View Post
Some people prefer games of pure chance and others prefer games of skill. Would be interesting to see research into why people are different in this regard. I have a guess or two...

Just FYI. I agree with you, and you're wasting your time.
Like they say, if you are good at something stick with it, its a skill I've mastered over my lifetime.
 
Old 08-14-2018, 11:11 AM
 
29,551 posts, read 9,725,771 times
Reputation: 3472
Quote:
Originally Posted by t206 View Post
Like they say, if you are good at something stick with it, its a skill I've mastered over my lifetime.
My dad used to tell me, if you try hard at something and don't succeed, try something else!

Something I need to remember as I sign off now before wasting any more of my time today...
 
Old 08-14-2018, 11:50 AM
 
20,955 posts, read 8,678,698 times
Reputation: 14050
I just did something I have never done before.....SOLD a vast amount of the investments in my IRA.

Since it is non-taxable event, I have nothing to lose in that department. Trump is certainly mucking with the world and I just don't trust chaos created by know-nothings to work out well.

I could be wrong. But just to be safe I'm not going to keep as much invested when Tweets made on the John are upsetting the markets. I'm getting the "cornered rat" vibe from Trump....and one thing most can agree on is that he could care less about others and the equity and bond markets. After all, he's really never invested in them (if he had, he'd be worth many many times what he lost/made in Real Estate)...

His interest seems to be making sure that he and his family avoid the current investigations....

Worse comes to worse, I'll put that money back into something. But Trump is throwing bombs and sooner or later, one will find the wrong target and could set off a panic.

MUCH larger odds, IMHO, than the Great Recession (which had amazingly low odds of occurring)....

That's my take. I've been investing since about 1981 and this is the first time I have felt this way - so it's certainly not a partisan issue.
 
Old 08-14-2018, 01:34 PM
 
34,300 posts, read 15,656,546 times
Reputation: 13053
Quote:
Originally Posted by LearnMe View Post
You are right of course...

Then again, how many times have I noted how these threads and comments don't make a bit of difference to anyone? Don't know of any threads that prove that truth better than this one.

I wish you could understand how silly your comments tend to be when it comes to all I have tried to explain to you along with others in this thread. All to no avail of course, and even if no one wants to listen to other than their own choir, repeating ourselves is even more silly. So I won't.

Facts got me down? I can't even understand what that question can mean all considered. You mean the fact the stock market is up? I'm certainly enjoying a better ROI than when the markets are down. Again it's awfully hard to make sense of your comments and/or logic here, but next is the easier question to understand.

"Anyone care to celebrate?"

Not me, for reasons I doubt you would understand any better, but over the course of many years following the markets and investing, I know better than to celebrate the ups or overreact to ups or downs in general.

Good luck with your effort to "find a buy point" right now. Are you celebrating these highs while looking for a "buy in point" when for many who are truly enjoying handsome returns bought in a long time ago? For most people who did invest at the right time some time ago, the question is more about when to sell, "profit taking," and then to buy in again when that time is done.

Trying to "time the market" is a fool's game however, so again..., good luck with that.
I remember starting out investing, I thought, I going to learn as much as I can and that knowledge would get me where I wanted to go. A winning portfolio with fat profits. After a few years I realized the more I know, the less I knew. I would need three lifetimes and still come up short on learning everything.
I simply wasn't ever going to learn everything even in one lifetime. Learning as much as I could wasn't the answer that was going to get me to my goal.
It was time to wise up and develop a style that would work for me. It won't work for anyone else unless they are exactly like me. My interest, my time, my money, my efforts, my goals, my accounts. Fact is there is no one like me just as it can be said about everyone else. People are different and styles are different and situations are different.
I have no interest in telling people to listen to me or that what I do will be right for them also. To me that would be foolish, maybe even harmful to others. I'm not looking for an investment guru nor do I wish to be one either.
I don't celebrate regardless of the direction of the market. Keeping emotion out of investing works for me but might not for others. Some people just aren't made that way but its doesn't mean they can't be successful.

Here is what you say, from what I put in bold in your post, its out of context for illustration purpose ( my comments will be in () ):

1) I have tried to explain to you

( how nice, happy to listen )

2) I can't even understand

( Question it, rely on your own answer not mine )

3) awfully hard to make sense of your comments and/or logic here

( how could you, your not me )

4) I know better

( I bet you do, for you, but not for me. )

5) For most people

( I invest for me, not most people )

6) invest at the right time some time ago

( really think you can decide what the right time is for everyone or anyone but yourself )

7) the question is more about when to sell, "profit taking," and then to buy in again when that time is done.

( I have already stated in prior post I exited the market in the spring. Half the question you find important is in my rearview mirror.
I have what I call a gift account I'm looking for a buy in on. I'm looking for a buy in below where I sold in the spring. Its not an account I depend on in retirement to live off of.
It pays for extra vacation money, family gifts like birthdays and all kinds of presents to grandkids etc...
It started as a fun little idea but I treat it as serious as if it was my last dollar and have done quite well with it IMO. )

I keep things simple, for me all Presidents get credit & blame for what happens on their watch, period.
If the glass is half full or half empty is up to the individual. Government policy does have an impact on the markets as do many, many other things. I never made a dime knowing that.

Last edited by phma; 08-14-2018 at 02:11 PM..
 
Old 08-15-2018, 08:22 AM
 
20,955 posts, read 8,678,698 times
Reputation: 14050
Well, I guess selling wasn't such a bad idea! Looks like we might break 25K on the down side....and we have seen nothing yet. As mentioned, sooner or later Trump will throw his bombs in the wrong direction and we'll see 10, 20 or even 30% reductions. I should say "we could see".....the markets might laugh him off.

But no one of sound mind could say he is helping the economy. At best it will shrug him off...but the odds of that get lower as he is backed into a corner with all the investigations and exposures. He doesn't care about bringing the world down with him - in fact, he's exactly that type of person who would say "I'm going down, and so are all of you".....

While there is no such thing as true market timing, there IS such a thing as seeing a country in chaos and understanding that it could upset the markets. I'm not betting on disaster (still have most money invested), but am pulling back until we have a sane and stable admin.
 
Old 08-15-2018, 08:38 AM
 
Location: North Pacific
15,754 posts, read 7,598,983 times
Reputation: 2576
Quote:
Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
Well, I guess selling wasn't such a bad idea! Looks like we might break 25K on the down side....and we have seen nothing yet. As mentioned, sooner or later Trump will throw his bombs in the wrong direction and we'll see 10, 20 or even 30% reductions. I should say "we could see".....the markets might laugh him off.

But no one of sound mind could say he is helping the economy. At best it will shrug him off...but the odds of that get lower as he is backed into a corner with all the investigations and exposures. He doesn't care about bringing the world down with him - in fact, he's exactly that type of person who would say "I'm going down, and so are all of you".....

While there is no such thing as true market timing, there IS such a thing as seeing a country in chaos and understanding that it could upset the markets. I'm not betting on disaster (still have most money invested), but am pulling back until we have a sane and stable admin.
Oh, you're going to be waiting for a long long time, sane and stable has yet to describe any POTUS administration ... there is no such monkey.
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