Black male support for Trump rises (wages, economic, Nevada, governor)
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Yes, I want Trump to win and yes I understand most Blacks won't support Trump but no I am not grasping at straws. I don't believe Black voters are different than others who vote in their own best interest. And Trump will see an increase in Black support based on what they (Black voter) see in their pocketbook. My feeling is Trump will get a solid 15% of the Black vote if not more.
Why do you believe the above?
It is highly doubtful that Trump will even get 10% of the black vote, let alone 15%.
Mostly because the majority of black voters are black women. 98% of black women voters don't like Trump. Trump did worse with the black vote in 2016 versus GW Bush in 2012.
I also think that the eventual nominee on the Democratic side will come in to play in regards to black voters voting for Trump or just not voting (which was the case in 2016 in hot swing states like WI and MI in particular).
Many black voters don't like some of the Democratic candidates, including myself. I honestly do believe that if Warren or Sanders is nominated that many black Americans just won't vote again. I have nothing personally against them but I feel they are too extreme and too liberal.
It is a lie that all black voters are liberals like the super liberal white liberals. They often get on our nerves and many of us, including myself, feel that they have a white savior sort of complex.
But I'd never vote for Trump and I always vote and I never vote 3rd party. I'd hold my nose and vote for Warren or Sanders over Trump. I am 40 - the age group that actually does vote (us older folks) in black America. Black women are a solid voting block and I doubt Trump will get more than 2-3% of the black woman vote. He may get 10% of the black male vote, but because we outnumber them, it won't amount to 15%.
The economy will GREAT RECESSION, again, during the next presidential term. The economy has never expanded this many months in a row.....and is over due for a downward correction. I believe the longer the recession is pushed out....the worse it will be when it happens. Keep in mind that we are essentially pedal to the metal on the economy. Monetary and Fiscal policy are our main tools to control the economy. We pressed on the gas of monetary policy to pull us out of the great recession.....but we never took our foot off the gas. We still have near record low interest rates. In terms of fiscal policy, Trump has provided a tax cut early in his presidency and the deficit is growing meaning that government spending is growing as well. What happens when your car starts slowing and you are already pressing down hard on the gas? What do you do to speed it up again?
The next recession is looming and its going to be a hard one to pull out of. Whatever party is in control when it happens will get the blame. Obviously Trump will ultimately get blamed for the upcoming mess if he is in office. If the Dems are in office they will get blamed. It will be argued that things were going great until the democrats took over. I am not sure it really matters who wins in 2020, the fate will be the same for the country. The only prize maybe a supreme court pick.
I think to a lot of people....politics is just alike a sport. People are just rooting for their team.....but the team is the country....not the parties. The masses are cutting off their nose to spite the face.....as the old folks used to say.
Here's my take on the current state of politics. I tend to doubt the Rep. leadership likes Trump and more than Nancy P likes AOC.
However, the Rep. leadership understands with Trump reelected they stand a good chance at moving the court to the right for decades.
That's what this election is largely about... the courts. Both USSC and lower courts.
And if this should happen you can bet they (Rep. leadership) will still kick Trump to the curb once he's out of office.
You might be right and I will be watching closely. I've already sold my home in Cal. and if I see property values in the Phx metro start to slide I will get out fast.
However, if any of this does happen it will likely be after the 2020 election.
Agreed with the after the election....but you will definitely see a change in the behavior of the canaries in the coal mine, before the election. Who wins in a recession? In other words, you win an election but will be blamed for the recession. The next election is no prize....you just get to hold the hot potato and will be burned because there is no one else to pass it to. Next presidency is a no win situation.
I think residinghere is right, as she alluded to sexism. I just think many men, black or white, are reluctant to vote for a female president. If the democrats nominee is a women.....I think Trump will win. I really don't care who wins though....honestly......as long as they keep their finger off the war trigger. Yes, I would rather see a democrat win.....but not by much. They both suck.
Any major shift in the supreme court......that will be lasting.....will create civil unrest. People just don't take no for an answer anymore. The streets will be heard.
Last edited by Indentured Servant; 11-13-2019 at 11:15 AM..
Generally, that is the case. I look at the states where Blacks are the most likely (while a majority still disapprove) to approve of Trump. Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota. Three things those states have in common.
1) Blacks are 1% of the population or less.
2) No Black neighborhoods.
3) A large part of the Black population is serving in the military (especially Wyoming and Idaho).
I've been through Ohio (Cincinnati area). I haven't spent much time there. However, I might take your word for it.
I don't know where the Black Trump supporters in the Atlanta area live. I do know that where I've lived (Paulding County, Cobb County) I have never seen Black Trump supporters, that I know of. Maybe one or two and that's it. In Paulding County (which used to be 90% White until 2000, it's 77% White and 17% Black these days), which is rabidly pro-Trump, this should be the place to see pro-Trump Blacks. Quite the opposite. Hardly any Blacks supporting Trump, not out in the open anyway.
I will leave a 2nd reply to you later.
On the black, they live in predominantly black neighborhoods. Most of the black Trump supporters I knew/know in metro Atlanta live in either DeKalb County (in wealthier black enclaves like Lithonia) or they live in Gwinnet County in more affluent suburban areas an are just considered one of "those" folks lol - if you know what I mean. Contrary to what a lot of the posters here think, I've honestly never felt any sort of "pressure" in regards to political candidates from my family or the black community and especially not so in metro Atlanta.
But I only personally know 3 black men in metro Atlanta who have stated they like Trump. Not sure if that will correlate to them voting for Trump or not. Two of them did say they voted for Trump but not sure if they will again.
It is highly doubtful that Trump will even get 10% of the black vote, let alone 15%.
Mostly because the majority of black voters are black women. 98% of black women voters don't like Trump. Trump did worse with the black vote in 2016 versus GW Bush in 2012.
I also think that the eventual nominee on the Democratic side will come in to play in regards to black voters voting for Trump or just not voting (which was the case in 2016 in hot swing states like WI and MI in particular).
Many black voters don't like some of the Democratic candidates, including myself. I honestly do believe that if Warren or Sanders is nominated that many black Americans just won't vote again. I have nothing personally against them but I feel they are too extreme and too liberal.
It is a lie that all black voters are liberals like the super liberal white liberals. They often get on our nerves and many of us, including myself, feel that they have a white savior sort of complex.
But I'd never vote for Trump and I always vote and I never vote 3rd party. I'd hold my nose and vote for Warren or Sanders over Trump. I am 40 - the age group that actually does vote (us older folks) in black America. Black women are a solid voting block and I doubt Trump will get more than 2-3% of the black woman vote. He may get 10% of the black male vote, but because we outnumber them, it won't amount to 15%.
Because there are voters who often vote with their pocketbook be they men or women. Black or White
Because there are voters who often vote with their pocketbook be they men or women. Black or White
My family is pretty solidly upper middle class. Educated and and highly paid black women are the least likely demographic to vote for Trump and are the most likely demographic in black America to actually vote.
The idea that Trump is better for our pocketbooks is kind of silly to many black people in general. We know that presidents don't have much to do with our financial status - that is a personal journey and not dependent on who is in office.
ETA: the idea that black voters equate the president with our personal financial situation is an example of how non-black Americans have a stereotypical view of black voters. I've noted many times on these forums that neither of our major political parties are free from racism and that neither of them are out for our best interest as a demographic in America 100%. I'd dare bet that most black Americans agree with me on that. It is why we weren't falling apart when Trump was elected like many white liberals were. Same old, same old for us. However, as you noted about conservative voters - SCOTUS is important to us. Black women, including myself, we are concerned about SCOTUS being stocked with conservative judges. Conservative court officials in my personal view are also much more likely to be biased against black people in our judicial system across the board and I'd prefer a liberal/Democratic leaning judicial candidate if I can vote for them (and I do in my state and local elections) and prefer a Democrat nominate SCOTUS appointments to protect women's reproductive rights and provide a balance to SCOTUS politically. This is also not an usual idea from a black female voter.
My family is pretty solidly upper middle class. Educated and and highly paid black women are the least likely demographic to vote for Trump and are the most likely demographic in black America to actually vote.
The idea that Trump is better for our pocketbooks is kind of silly to many black people in general. We know that presidents don't have much to do with our financial status - that is a personal journey and not dependent on who is in office.
Why? If you run a small business, own rental property, work in the service industry or are any kind of worker bee the economy certainly does matter. I believe it was Nancy P. who said about Trumps tax cuts: "Whats the big deal about an extra $50 a week."
On the black, they live in predominantly black neighborhoods. Most of the black Trump supporters I knew/know in metro Atlanta live in either DeKalb County (in wealthier black enclaves like Lithonia) or they live in Gwinnet County in more affluent suburban areas an are just considered one of "those" folks lol - if you know what I mean. Contrary to what a lot of the posters here think, I've honestly never felt any sort of "pressure" in regards to political candidates from my family or the black community and especially not so in metro Atlanta.
But I only personally know 3 black men in metro Atlanta who have stated they like Trump. Not sure if that will correlate to them voting for Trump or not. Two of them did say they voted for Trump but not sure if they will again.
I've been in Cascade Heights (to pick up lunch. When I worked in an office on Fulton Industrial Blvd, I went there because it has good places to eat). I could see a few Black conservatives being there. Nice, wealthy areas do have a decent likelihood of having a few conservatives.
Living on the western side of the Atlanta metropolitan area, I have gotten some pressure to vote for a certain political candidate. However, much of it came from white conservatives who were rather curious as to who I would support. A few who have tried to convince me to listen to some conservative talk show, or to vote for a certain GOP candidate. I remember voting in the 2004 Presidential election. I was 18 and it was my first. I voted for Bush. And that has been the only time I've voted for a GOP candidate. I happen to tell a neighbor who happen to be close to my age, White female. Her response was "good boy". Looking back , I feel like such a response was condescending.
I've only personally known one Black male who stated that he liked Trump. He was a college student and the child of Nigerian immigrants. He has since turned against Trump. Another Black man that I know, he said he doesn't like Trump, but in his words "at least he'll do something about the illegals". He's a blue collar professional in his early 50s.
Why? If you run a small business, own rental property, work in the service industry or are any kind of worker bee the economy certainly does matter. I believe it was Nancy P. who said about Trumps tax cuts: "Whats the big deal about an extra $50 a week."
Well, for many people it is a big deal.
Well, I spent part of the Trump administration unemployed due to a layoff and another part of it underemployed. I'm at full-time employment in my field. However, when you're unemployed, a tax break doesn't mean anything to you. And when you're single and childless, it doesn't mean much because you still pay the bachelor tax.
Why? If you run a small business, own rental property, work in the service industry or are any kind of worker bee the economy certainly does matter. I believe it was Nancy P. who said about Trumps tax cuts: "Whats the big deal about an extra $50 a week."
Well, for many people it is a big deal.
You are assuming, erroneously, that the american president controls the economy. S/he doesn't.
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