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The numbers for the Virus will not be any higher than the 30-60,000 a year for flu.
The experts are already revising their estimates and admitting they way over estimated.
Actually, one of the modellers on whom Dr. Brix relied last night said she misconstrued his conclusions. He has a lengthy twitter thread explaining why.
The numbers for the Virus will not be any higher than the 30-60,000 a year for flu.
The experts are already revising their estimates and admitting they way over estimated.
The revisions are based off the actions taken, as stated by the doctor from the UK study;
"Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand)"
It was not over estimated, it was an estimate based upon no actions taken. Since actions are being taken, these actions were incorporated into the study and revised numbers were published.
Actually, one of the modellers on whom Dr. Brix relied last night said she misconstrued his conclusions. He has a lengthy twitter thread explaining why.
"1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.
2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand)."
The revisions are based off the actions taken, as stated by the doctor from the UK study;
"Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand)"
It was not over estimated, it was an estimate based upon no actions taken. Since actions are being taken, these actions were incorporated into the study and revised numbers were published.
And they revised those numbers down to 20,000 or less. Far from the hysterical 500,000 they first pushed.
And they revised those numbers down to 20,000 or less. Far from the hysterical 500,000 they first pushed.
If the UK continued to do very little, the numbers would be 500,000+. Since then, the UK did much more, which warranted a revision. This isn't rocket science.
If you get into you car and your GPS tells you it will take you 10 minutes to get to your destination by driving down Main Street, choosing to turn off of Main Street and taking Broadway instead will result in a revision in arrival time. It isn't because the situation around you has changed, its because you've decided to take a different course.
do you have a link? that's WAY higher than anything i've heard, which is more in the <5% range for that age group.
"New C.D.C. data shows that nearly 40 percent of patients sick enough to be hospitalized were age 20 to 54. But the risk of dying was significantly higher in older people." https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/h...ng-people.html
But in my post I accidentally wrote it wrong.
Last edited by eastriver; 03-27-2020 at 07:41 AM..
Once this information goes viral nationwide today, it will probably spell the end of Trump. Not a chance he wins reelection at this point.
Knowing that Trump was briefed on coroanvirus over three months ago and completely ignored the warning signs, when can now, literally, blame every single American death on him.
Trump is toast. I hope the incoming democratic president opens broad and sweeping investigations across his entire administration, including the incredible mismanagement of this corona pandemic.
CNN reports that his approval ratings are at an all-time high. And that Americans as a whole approve of the job he is doing with coronavirus. Look it up.
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