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I think the people who wants things to re-open should have Covid parties to deliberately infect themselves so they can have immunity. And this group can open the businesses and patronize the businesses.
It should be obvious that it is impossible. With an asymptomatic contagious period that averages 5-7 days (but can be up to 14 days), only in the most extreme lockdown could you trace everyone you had contact with.
Given that the virus can live on surfaces for several days, your "contact" may have been indirect and untraceable. If you touch an object like a door handle in public, there simply is no way to know who else touched that object.
And in some cases it is suspected of being airborne which means you need not have had proximate contact at all.
exactly!
Who counts as a contact is the million dollar questions.
https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/04/24/conta...rystal-watson/The United States, too, is gradually ramping up efforts—including a new hiring surge funded by the CDC, a Google/Apple tech partnership, and a statewide program in Massachusetts. In New York, Gov. Andrew Cuomo is working with Bloomberg Philanthropies to launch a massive contact tracing program that will include online training from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
"In the absence of a vaccine, we think this is really the big public health tool we have to control transmission of COVID-19," says Crystal Watson, a lead author of the new report and assistant professor in the Bloomberg School. "We need to push hard for this."
In other words, 24/7 electronic tracking of your every movement like China's Health Code system?
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I think the people who wants things to re-open should have Covid parties to deliberately infect themselves so they can have immunity. And this group can open the businesses and patronize the businesses.
Or they can just go about their lives in any manner in which they see fit, same as people do every year while diseases are spreading.
https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/04/24/conta...rystal-watson/The United States, too, is gradually ramping up efforts—including a new hiring surge funded by the CDC, a Google/Apple tech partnership, and a statewide program in Massachusetts. In New York, Gov. Andrew Cuomo is working with Bloomberg Philanthropies to launch a massive contact tracing program that will include online training from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
"In the absence of a vaccine, we think this is really the big public health tool we have to control transmission of COVID-19," says Crystal Watson, a lead author of the new report and assistant professor in the Bloomberg School. "We need to push hard for this."
This doesn't answer my question at all.
and you really don't need to shout (bold = shout)
Nowhere in that article says that contact tracing is possible when community spread is everywhere. It only says the US is gradually ramping up efforts, including a statewide program.
Who counts as the contact is a million dollar question.
Matter of fact, contact tracing is extremely important at the very beginning of the pandemic when there is no or very little community spreading. ALL doctors are afraid of the words "community transmission", when there is community transmission, that means contact tracing is impossible. This is just common sense stuff. Actually, the words "community spread" means people have been infected with a virus in an area, including some who are not sure where and how they got infected. (again: contact tracing = impossible)
This does't mean that contact tracing is useless at this point, but you cannot deny that when there is massive community transmission, contact tracing becomes impossible. How do you contact tracing every and each case in New York city?
There is no doubt contact tracing will end a global pandemic, the issue is
who counts as the contact is the million dollar question.
I will give you an example. My friend was diagnosed with COvid-19 about a month ago. His contact: His girlfriend who lives with him, that is all. He works from home. So his girlfriend is counted as his contact. He won't go out. But a month ago, he went to the store, he went to the gym, he went to the beach, he talked to several girls on the beach and they all shared a drink. No one, carried their phones with them according to my friend. They hugged and kissed goodbye, but that is all, no more contact.
Can you tell me which google app can trace who gave the virus to him? LOL Don't be naive. A program, however, can prevent him from GIVING the illness to others, but there is no way they'd find out who gave it to him. In another word, the program will never find out the patient zero in my friend's case.
Last edited by lilyflower3191981; 05-05-2020 at 10:42 AM..
Nowhere in that article says that contact tracing is possible when community spread is everywhere. It only says the US is gradually ramping up efforts, including a statewide program.
Who counts as the contact is a million dollar question.
Matter of fact, contact tracing is extremely important at the very beginning of the pandemic when there is no or very little community spreading. ALL doctors are afraid of the words "community transmission", when there is community transmission, that means contact tracing is impossible. This is just common sense stuff.
This does't mean that contact tracing is useless at this point, but you cannot deny that when there is massive community transmission, contact tracing becomes impossible. How do you contact tracing every and each case in New York city?
There is no doubt contact tracing will end a global pandemic, the issue is
who counts as the contact is the million dollar question.
I will give you an example. My friend was diagnosed with COvid-19 about a month ago. His contact: His girlfriend who lives with him, that is all. He works from home. So his girlfriend is counted as his contact. He won't go out. Can you tell me which google app can trace who gave the virus to him? LOL Don't be naive. A program, however, can prevent him from GIVING the illness to others, but there is no way they'd find out who gave it to him. In another word, the program will never find out the patient zero in my friend's case.
no caps is shouting. Bold and italics are for when I post a direct quote.
Never have heard the bold is shouting -- lol. That's a new one.
I've been posting and using that format for years and nobody has said anything. It is to show what is NOT my words.
Your example is one example -- and it could be it comes to a dead end -- but the other thousands of cases may trace the contact and what happens is the more tracing the more we track where and how people get sick.
I'm not an expert on contact tracing, pandemics, epidemics but every health expret I've heard from around the world has said that - while we are waiting for a vacinne -- more testing and tracing will help to mitigate the virus spread as we set to open up.
It won't eliminate it....and common sense prevails -- if you have asthma, heart disease, diabetes, are elderly or deal with anybody who has any of that or is immune compromised you have to adjust your lifestyle.
no caps is shouting. Bold and italics are for when I post a direct quote.
Never have heard the bold is shouting -- lol. That's a new one.
I've been posting and using that format for years and nobody has said anything. It is to show what is NOT my words.
Your example is one example -- and it could be it comes to a dead end -- but the other thousands of cases may trace the contact and what happens is the more tracing the more we track where and how people get sick.
I'm not an expert on contact tracing, pandemics, epidemics but every health expret I've heard from around the world has said that - while we are waiting for a vacinne -- more testing and tracing will help to mitigate the virus spread as we set to open up.
It won't eliminate it....and common sense prevails -- if you have asthma, heart disease, diabetes, are elderly or deal with anybody who has any of that or is immune compromised you have to adjust your lifestyle.
I agree with your third paragraph, but please, read what community spread means.
it means exactly that, they don't know how and where they were infected, because contact tracing is impossible. This is the ONLY point I was making.
I wasn't contradicting you, I didn't say it is USELESS, I said, impossible. (impossible to trace each and every case, that is all it is there, you don't need to add something that is not there.)
Again, how do you contact tracing each and every case in New York city? Saying it is impossible to trace it, it is not the equivalent of saying, it is useless.
Regarding the shouting, well, no need to bold your quote, how about that?
It should be obvious that it is impossible. With an asymptomatic contagious period that averages 5-7 days (but can be up to 14 days), only in the most extreme lockdown could you trace everyone you had contact with.
Given that the virus can live on surfaces for several days, your "contact" may have been indirect and untraceable. If you touch an object like a door handle in public, there simply is no way to know who else touched that object.
And in some cases it is suspected of being airborne which means you need not have had proximate contact at all.
Exactly!
.. again, doesn't mean contact tracing is useless, but when there is community spread, it should be obvious that is impossible to trace each and every case, like you said.
Who counts as that "contact" is the million dollar question, your "contact" could have been the person sitting next to you in the subway, who knows?
....and common sense prevails -- if you have asthma, heart disease, diabetes, are elderly or deal with anybody who has any of that or is immune compromised you have to adjust your lifestyle.
well, nobody is saying they shouldn't.
How do you find a balance between opening up the country safely and flattening the curve is a challenge. I doubt any experts have a real answer for that, this is a "learn as you go" process. One step forward, two steps back, this looks like the reality most countries are facing, to be quite honest.
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