Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
It could turn out to be that Kari Lake and Brian Kemp pull their respective Senate nominees over the finish line. I cannot envision someone voting for Kari Lake and then voting for Senator Kelly.
Az? I agree. I also think an increase in the Hispanic vote for Reps. will also play an important role this Nov.
With regards to PA: The Oz attack ads depicting Fetterman and his confrontation with a Black jogger could end up costing him the election. For Fetterman to win he needs a strong Black turnout which he may not get. I won't be surprised if many Black voters decide to sit this one out.
With regards to PA: The Oz attack ads depicting Fetterman and his confrontation with a Black jogger could end up costing him the election. For Fetterman to win he needs a strong Black turnout which he may not get. I won't be surprised if many Black voters decide to sit this one out.
Mr. Fetterman did horribly with black men in Philadelphia, in the primary. That should foreshadow that he will, likely, falter with the black vote.
Mr. Fetterman did horribly with black men in Philadelphia, in the primary. That should foreshadow that he will, likely, falter with the black vote.
I don't think you can foreshadow much into the primary results in Philadelphia. Fetterman did poorly in Philadelphia because of State Rep Malcolm Kenyatta who represents Philadelphia picked up quite a few votes there. I highly doubt those who voted for Kenyatta in the Primary are going to be voting Oz.
The link below explains the RCP methodology. For instance, in the PA Senate race, the average of the polls shows a 3.7% lead for Fetterman. But they are estimating (based on the 2016 and 2020 races) that polls about one month prior to Election Day tend to over-estimate Democrats in PA by 5.9%. So they adjust the margin rightward by 5.9%, and thus are estimating a 2.2% win for Oz as the final outcome in the race.
There is more to their methodology than that, just don't know what it is. As I explained earlier, RCP's current poll average is showing Kelly up by 4.1. RCP is showing a 2.2% adjustment in the favor of the GOP due to overestimating the Democrats. In their adjusted polling average they are showing Kelly up 1.9%, but have Arizona projected to go to Masters.
It is unclear whether RCP's projections are based on their own predictions or something else, but there is more to it than just polling + poll adjustment as the Arizona projection doesn't make sense based on the #'s they have.
I don't think you can foreshadow much into the primary results in Philadelphia. Fetterman did poorly in Philadelphia because of State Rep Malcolm Kenyatta who represents Philadelphia picked up quite a few votes there. I highly doubt those who voted for Kenyatta in the Primary are going to be voting Oz.
They will not vote for Dr. Oz, but I would question whether they will vote, period.
If Walker wins, it will be on account of Kemp pulling him across the line. The more likely scenario is the abortion scandal ultimately does him in.
This should have been a walkover for the Georgia GOP but they nominated a weak candidate who may well prove to be the reason they didn't take the Senate. Well, that and their similarly weak candidate selection in PA.
I am voting for Walker but NOT voting at all for governor or AG.
From the link, it appears that RCP is looking back at the last three elections for each state (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, and others) under consideration. Those would be the 2016 US Presidential Election, the 2018 Senate Election, and the 2020 US Presidential Election. RCP notes how far off their computed average of poll forecasts was from the actual vote tallies in each state, coming up with an adjustment factor for each state's 2022 Senate election. The RCP state adjustment factor is then applied to the current RCP average for each Senate election.
It appears that the hypothesis behind the adjustment is that since the RCP poll averages were inaccurate in the past three President/Senate elections in the swing states, the average of their inaccuracies can predict future inaccuracies.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
