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From the link, it appears that RCP is looking back at the last three elections for each state (Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, and others) under consideration. Those would be the 2016 US Presidential Election, the 2018 Senate Election, and the 2020 US Presidential Election. RCP notes how far off their computed average of poll forecasts was from the actual vote tallies in each state, coming up with an adjustment factor for each state's 2022 Senate election. The RCP state adjustment factor is then applied to the current RCP average for each Senate election.
It appears that the hypothesis behind the adjustment is that since the RCP poll averages were inaccurate in the past three President/Senate elections in the swing states, the average of their inaccuracies can predict future inaccuracies.
I agree with that basis, as the GOP outperformance repetitively is conclusive proof of that.
Az? I agree. I also think an increase in the Hispanic vote for Reps. will also play an important role this Nov.
With regards to PA: The Oz attack ads depicting Fetterman and his confrontation with a Black jogger could end up costing him the election. For Fetterman to win he needs a strong Black turnout which he may not get. I won't be surprised if many Black voters decide to sit this one out.
You have to remember many, if not a majority of people have already voted in PA.
When these things get brought to light late in the race, it's almost always too late because 1/2 the people or more have most likely already voted early or had someone vote early for them.
October surprises don't work anymore. You need August surprises in order to get to voters BEFORE they vote early for themselves or for someone else.
Agreed, just like when Trump handed the Senate to the Democrats when he told Republicans not to vote in 2020.
Why people think Trump is smart and basically a God is beyond me.
But I don't understand, which is it? Trump has no say in the party or not? It took 6 years but he sure is cleaning the GOP from the Bush neo con doctrine. They are getting smaller and smaller and will never control the party again.
Just for fun, I went back and looked at both the OP's link to the October 7th Mediate.com and BobNJ's link to the (I assume) current RCP projections that use their adjustment factor...
The pubs may take back the senate but it will be by a trickle not a landslide.
With the House gone and the GOP taking majority, taking the Senate by 1 or 2 seats would be enough to stop any agenda from Biden, making him lame duck President for 2 years.
That would be a huge failure for Democrats. They lost 14 seats in the house in 2020 and will lose majority in 2022 and if they lose the Senate then they barely had a 1 vote majority for 2 years. They only held majority in the house for 4 years and a 1 vote majority in the Senate for 2 years (if they lose the Senate. Worst scenario it's 50-50 tie)
Add that the GOP will expand their governorship 30 GOP states to 20 Democrat.
Out of 7,383 state legislative seats total in the nation: GOP has 1,092 state Senate seats to 863 Democrats. GOP has 2,902 state House seats to 2,408 Demcorats. https://ballotpedia.org/Partisan_com...e_legislatures
Add the Supreme Court is 6 to 3 Republican.
It looks pretty bad for the Democrats with Biden/Harris for 2024 to fix it and expand. They have 2 years to build the party and they are the wrong people. I can see how the Democrats will dump Biden for 2024.
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