Climate talk: Europe (snow, warmest, record, temperatures)

[B87]

Originally Posted by Dean York

Last week of October looks pretty warm. You may even sneak in a 20C or two. Am I correct in saying you haven't reached 20C this month? Better late than never I guess.

That's correct. It's unusual to not record 20c in October here, with most Octobers seeing a few days around the 20-22c mark.

[chicagogeorge]

The ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies so persistent across Northern Europe, is predicted to start splitting into two pieces with one piece sliding east towards the Urals and the other piece retrograding westward into the northern North Atlantic (Figure 5a). Widespread positive heights will persist above normal temperatures for Scandinavia (Figure 6). With the strong ridging to the north dissipating, persistent negative geopotential height anomalies across Central Europe will start to fill as well (Figure 5a) resulting in moderating temperatures across Europe (Figure 6). Meanwhile downstream of the northwestern Eurasia ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies, troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies will stretch from Central Asia to Eastern Siberia (Figure 5a). Likewise, temperatures will remain below normal across much of Northern Asia from the Caspian Sea to East Asia. One exception will be Southern China where persistent geopotential height anomalies centered over Southeast Asia will bring above normal temperatures across (Figure 6).

Positive pressure/geopotential height anomalies are predicted to persist across the Arctic this period with the strongest positive anomalies near the southern tip of Greenland (Figure 5b). Widespread positive heights across the Arctic and negative heights across the mid-latitudes ocean basins will likely maintain both the AO and the NAO in negative territory heading in to the beginning of November (Figure 1).

The two centers of positive geopotential height anomalies originating over northwestern Eurasia will continue to drift further part this period (Figure 5b). The dominant center of above normal geopotential heights in the northern North Atlantic will help force negative geopotential height anomalies across the center of Europe including Scandinavia (Figure 5b). Ridging anchored west of Europe coupled with lowering heights across the continent will promote northerly flow and below normal temperatures across much of Europe (Figure 8). Downstream of the European rough, southwesterly flow will transport milder temperatures into northwestern Europe (Figure 5b). Further east, ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies are predicted to stretch from much of Siberia southwestwards across much of Western Asia and into the Middle East (Figure 5b). Meanwhile the persistent area of negative geopotential height anomalies is predicted to shift eastwards into Eastern Siberia and the northern North Pacific (Figure 5b). Therefore, the pattern of widespread below normal temperatures across Northern Asia including much of Siberia will persist, though the axis of the cold temperatures will slide southeastward and now include all of East Asia. (Figure 8)

Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts | AER

[Cambium]

Looking at the latest GFS I went to check why Northeast U.S will have a nice period below normal for a week. Figured there was some blocking in the North Atlantic or something.


Anyway - something caught my eye instead. Big Cold Upper Low that far south near Africa.


Does anyone have any discussions or forecasts from around there in Portugal or coast of NW Africa? And is it interesting to see for October?


Monday



Tuesday

[Warszawa]

Yeah the blue blob in Africa is interesting, reminds me of that one time the polar jet dipped over Guadalajara last year in March

[chicagogeorge]

Euro and the GFS showing Polar Vortex split in November which would translate to Arctic cold a 2-3 weeks later. Europe looks to be on the warm side of this split with North America and Asia seeing the cold.

[ase42dv]

Originally Posted by easthome

It would be nice, one last bit of warmth before the winter, I dislike the winter, I hate cold weather but the worst thing of all about living 50 degrees north are the 8 hour days :-(, I take my hat off to the people that live in Scandinavia or Eastern Europe and I glance enviously at people that live in the southernmost reaches of Europe, I wouldn't mind moving to Malta with FalmingGalah from the end of November to the end of February, I wonder if he/she has a spare room for rent!

Together with St Paul's Bay, if you want a cheap place with a warm climate during winters I also recommend you Almeria , or here between the coast of Valencia and Murcia you'll find a good spot too! Many rooms are cheap for a month rental as they're expensive on summer, on winter they remain empty so with 200-250€ a month you should find a good one or even a studio with just 300€ per month.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almer%C3%ADa#Climate Almeria has the warmest winters on continental Europe together with southern Cyprus, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limassol#Climate both have +17ºC (62,6F) maximum averages on the coldest month. I personally prefer Almeria because the winter is dry, so there is low humidity and low rain, in most of Mediterranean Europe the winter is the wettest season, most of rainy days feel cold and humid cold like Palermo or Cyprus for example. In Almería is the autumn, not the winter. Although it's a BWh (hot desert climate), not very much rain in overall.

I like Malta a lot! It's a very good place to live. I've been there and it's full of good people, good prices, good ambient... The only thing that I don't like is the harsh laws on Cannabis (I'm half dutch half spanish, this is a must for me ) but hey, lots of youngsters smoking there and as long as you are far from very touristic places... you will have no problems!
I like their opinion on religion, I'm a quite religious person and in my country most youngsters disrespect this, in Malta I've not seen this and I like it. And the people are very kind with you.

[flugsmallare]

first snow of the season for higher ground in inner götaland.

[Cambium]

Current temps.. (F°) nighttime

[forgotten username]

The weather looks totally normal to me for this time of the year. At least for here. 9c right now at 2am with some fog. Afternoons are around the 15c mark, partly sunny / partly cloudy / rainy depending on the day. Mid-fall weather exactly.

[Polarnight]

This week was definitley too cold here. Lots of drizzle and lots of overcast. Temps were not exceeding the 10c mark since tuesday.

Impressive considering we had a near record warm september. Hopefully it is a good sign for the winter?

Temps are rising again to a normal level next week.