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Neither. Economics is a social science so is far from perfect and liable to error. Economists make educated guesses.
A recession doesn't equate to economic collapse either. It's an inevitable part of the economic cycle.
You're not 'sick of experts' by any chance, are you?
No, I'm sick of experts who allow political agendas to cloud their judgement. They were so far off with this, and a number of other major predictions, that the public are quite rightly beginning to question their integrity.
How often does an expert have to get things dramatically wrong before we're allowed to question their "expertise"?
No, I'm sick of experts who allow political agendas to cloud their judgement. They were so far off with this, and a number of other major predictions, that the public are quite rightly beginning to question their integrity.
How often does an expert have to get things dramatically wrong before we're allowed to question their "expertise"?
What "experts" are you specifically referring to though? And it of course depends on what media outlets you are getting the info that these "experts" were saying, as they have their own agendas too...
What "experts" are you specifically referring to though? And it of course depends on what media outlets you are getting the info that these "experts" were saying, as they have their own agendas too...
Here's a list of some of the organisations that said the UK would fall into recession by the end of 2016 or during early 2017:
- The Treasury (Supported by George Osborne & David Cameron)
- OECD
- Barclays
- JP Morgan
- Goldman Sachs
- IHS Markit
- Jefferies International
- Bloomberg
- ABN Amro
- Credit Suisse
- etc.
The IMF predicted a recession for this year, unless something very dramatic takes place, that looks extremely unlikely.
The worst was the Treasury report, that predicted a year long recession immediately after the vote, and also told British people exactly how much money they would supposedly lose, £4,300. Osborne then backed this up with the ridiculous threat of an "emergency budget", basically a punishment budget. Not only was this alarmist, but it's clear that Cameron and Osborne told the treasury to analyse the worst case scenario, before they publicly presenting it as the likely scenario. It was an obvious scare tactic which has been heavily criticized by Sir Mervyn King, among others.
While many organisations seem to have had yet another "Michael Fish" moment, I think the most sensible organisations were those that simply said that there were legitimate risks but ultimately they do not know what the effects would be, since there really had been no historical precedent for Brexit.
No, I'm sick of experts who allow political agendas to cloud their judgement. They were so far off with this, and a number of other major predictions, that the public are quite rightly beginning to question their integrity.
How often does an expert have to get things dramatically wrong before we're allowed to question their "expertise"?
What political agendas do Barclays/Goldman Sachs et al have? You sound a bit paranoid.
Like I said, economics is a social science and is liable to error. It isn't foolproof.
What political agendas do Barclays/Goldman Sachs et al have? You sound a bit paranoid.
Like I said, economics is a social science and is liable to error. It isn't foolproof.
The EU is a very easy organisation to lobby, and often passes regulations that protect large businesses and banks from competition. I'm not sitting here wearing a tin-foil hat, but I'm certainly not naive enough to presume that large organisations do not have their own political agendas that they wish to pursue. They're perfectly entitled to do this, we just need to take this into account.
Economics is very liable to error, we would be foolish to dismiss their opinions of economists out of hand, but we would be equally foolish to accept everything they say. It's important to take a balanced view.
What political agendas do Barclays/Goldman Sachs et al have? You sound a bit paranoid.
Umm, less financial regulation, more open and global markets for one. Whatever is good for finance. This article is hyperbole but speaking of Goldman Sachs as a neutral party is absurd; they deliberately profited of the financial crisis and sold investment products they bet against:
Umm, less financial regulation, more open and global markets for one. Whatever is good for finance.
And they'd presumably benefit from being outside of the EU's jurisdiction given the UK is more friendly to financial industries than, say, France. No chance of an EU-imposed FTT either.
And they'd presumably benefit from being outside of the EU's jurisdiction given the UK is more friendly to financial industries than, say, France. No chance of an EU-imposed FTT either.
Only thing they're likely to miss is passporting.
eh, passporting is a big deal to them; it'd likely hurt more than less regulation. Though I'd need more expertise to know for sure.
And they'd presumably benefit from being outside of the EU's jurisdiction given the UK is more friendly to financial industries than, say, France. No chance of an EU-imposed FTT either.
Only thing they're likely to miss is passporting.
Passporting is a significant issue, so is the ability to easily access EU markets, and lobby EU officials within Brussels. EU Regulations protect large banks from smaller competition.
btw, your comment as a group without a political agenda on Goldman Sachs shows you aren't "far-left" . A left-winger would hold a more negative opinion on Goldman Sachs, and think big finance is the enemy not Leavers. Though perhaps the US left is more anti-finance?
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