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I, for one, am grateful for the shift south of this storm. Indianapolis, especially here on the north side, has been moved to much less ice and more snow. I much prefer snow over ice. Looks like a decent amount of rain tonight and tomorrow. Then a transition to some freezing rain and sleet before becoming all snow tomorrow evening and lasting through the day Thursday. Current forecast gives us maybe a glaze of ice and then 6-12 inches of snow. Areas north of us in Indiana could approach 20 inches of snow. And there's still a lot of question has to how deep the warm layer will be and how long it will last. It may erode faster and thus very little ice and sleet and more snow or it cloud be slower to dissolve and thus more ice and/or sleet here in Indy and less snow. This thing has been trending colder and more south for us so I'm hoping the keep the ice south.\
My only hope was that the timing wouldn't be speeding up on the changeover tomorrow. As of yesterday evening, it looked like the changeover would be after rush hour. Now it may be happening between 3-5PM so rush hour will be a nightmare.
I whole heartedly agree with the bolded statement. I don't care if its a glaze of ice,.. Ice is disruptive, snow is not (unless you're in the south). Ice accumulating on wires and trees is a mess not to mention you can't drive on ice.
Does anyone have an estimation of how much snow southern Indiana will see with the further south storm track? I'm at around 900 ft. elevation in Floyd County. I haven't had time to look at any of the models today.
Estimated snow rates as the storm begins. Apparently I will be seeing snowfall rates of 1.5" per hour in my area
GFS calling for 17.5 inches of snow for me
I still have this funny feeling the storm track is going to shift north. Let's see if my intuition is correct
Edit: My intuition sucks lol NAM is now coming in more south as well. Super tight snow gradient for the north part of Chicago and northern suburbs. Feast or famine.
Last edited by chicagogeorge; 02-01-2022 at 08:39 AM..
Ok, just checked the 6Z GFS, has the second low tracking well south of the Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday, but fighting a warmer nose aloft, temperatures are marginal, but I have a feeling it is trending toward more snowfall. This isn't the same stuck pattern that produced the record warm temperatures in December with the insane Southeast ridge.
Edit: My intuition sucks lol NAM is now coming in more south as well. Super tight snow gradient for the north part of Chicago and northern suburbs. Feast or famine.
If that map is true for snowfall totals in Indianapolis, it could be a record breaker. Most snow in 24 hours for Indianapolis is 12.5 inches. Most snow from a single storm is 16.1 inches. Currently, NWS has us in the 8-12 inches range.
On another note, they continue to remove the freezing rain threat from the Indy area. In fact, the latest update from the NWS removes freezing rain entirely. We could get a couple hours of sleet tomorrow afternoon, however.
It will keep trending south, I've seen various scenarios in the past where the models handle these shallow cold air intrusions very poorly! Also, a 25-50 mile shift in the freezing line aloft can make all the difference in a large amount of snow and less snow. Southern Indiana will be getting snow based on the very far south track of the low on Thursday. I'm not buying the mixed precipitation for my area, as I'm at a higher elevation than Bloomington, IN.
January 2022 was 3.0C colder than the 2010-2021 average at Burlington Pier.
2021 did not have any months as cold, the most below average months were July (1.4C below avg) and February (1.3C below avg). 2021 was 1.0C warmer than the 2010-2021 average.
Looks like we'll get around 6-8 inches of snow here. But it's going to be warm today, overnight and into tomorrow mid-day, so we'll see how much remains of the pre-existing snowpack. There were still about 10-12 inches yesterday.
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