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Looks like Houston George Bush Intercontinental Airport had a 1C lucky near miss this morning. It is certain now, the January 11 2016 record for latest ever first frost will be beaten by at least a day and the longest frost-free season will be around 1 1/2 months over the previous record.
This is to say nothing of the cold that will follow across lots of the Southeast US weather monitoring areas. I think some of the forecasts will underperform (ie: Oklahoma City and Dallas) based on what I have seen before of similar forecasts, other places (like Houston, and the 4C/-8C for Alexandria that ral31 mentioned earlier) seem more likely to have their forecasts materialize.
You beat me today, lol. The arctic blast won't hit Texas until next Monday, but George Bush Airport does have a freeze chance before that, on Saturday morning.
Edit: Gainesville will probably need to be watched Sunday morning as well, currently 34 F forecast.
That was very much intentional. Good to see I succeeded.
Quote:
The arctic blast won't hit Texas until next Monday, but George Bush Airport does have a freeze chance before that, on Saturday morning.
Yes, that would be the qualifier I mentioned by at least a day. The only variable in their frost-free season will be whether they get the frost then.
Also, I just realized how deja vu this is from a year and 3 weeks ago! Minus a lot of the Eastern Seaboard Southeast US, but we're getting a slightly delayed Christmas 2022 all over again - as much as I don't like the cold front the deja vu is fun to look back with, so hopefully you're having some too.
Edit: Indeed, Gainesville Airport does have that risky forecast. But quite the contrary to worrywart November 30, no complaints if this overperforms from 1C since it is now well into 'ideal' territory. Instead it's now a question of 'how far into ideal territory will it go' instead of great monitoring getting ruined.
Edit 2: Even if Gainesville Airport gets the January 14 first frost, it will have beaten Jacksonville Airport by a verrrrrry substantial margin. That would be a difference of one and a half months and 4 less frosts in Gainesville's favor - rather unexpected if you ask me!
Last edited by Can't think of username; 01-10-2024 at 09:42 AM..
Median or middle-range of expected snowfall over next 3-days from powerful winter storm across the Great Lakes. Large area of 12"- 15" of snowfall for the Chicagoland area. Better make sure my 25 year old snow blower is ready to rock and roll
With all the talk of the upcoming arctic blast the near-bomb cyclone that just crossed the coast yesterday slipped under the radar. Overnight Monday into Tuesday here was crazy windy and rainy; the winds persisted through the day yesterday driving the sea up onto coastal streets as shown in this video. Don't these noobs realize this is salt water???
North Pacific model pattern analogs at odds with model depictions for North America by Day 15. Rex block look with moderate -WPO usually keeps East colder longer.
CFS and European model outlook analog matches for February only include two years from 2000s: 2007 and 2010. Both were cold and snowy months here.
And if Tallahassee isn't cold enough, how about 2014 Pensacola? More snow, and there was a -1C/-5C day in January so it did 'stay cold'.
You have to argue PENSACOLA in 2014 was more like Minneapolis than Miami since it got snow and had a day stay cold, plus the climate (including that January with the cold day and the snow) was colder than an average year in Dallas. Do you want to make that argument?
But I guess we should take this discussion to the thread about it.
It snows in Dallas every year. In Tally? Maybe once a decade and a half? Infrequent enough there's a Wikipedia page specifically dedicated to EVERY recorded snowfall in the Sunshine State.
I agree Miami was more like Dallas pre 1990. Not anymore. Its gone full on Pollo Tropical. Muy caliente, chamaco!
Moderate snowfall right now here in Bloomington, MN.
Lets see if we get ANYTHING significant though. The Twin Cities has been allergic to decent snowfalls this season lol Tired of seeing brown grass poking up.
Remember the Weather Channel predicted a warm January.
It might still be warm here and in the NE. When combining the MTD + 14 day forecast, it's looking like about 3.5F above the long term average (1940-present) here, mainly thanks to nights being relatively mild.
This is MTD + 14 day forecast vs 1940-present normals.
(using the 2003-present average, it would be 1.5F above average)
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