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With less people wouldn't Japan just become like they were, say, 60 years ago? Old people will die out and life goes on.
60 years ago, Japan was a young nation. It won't be the same at all as it will be full of old people.
But, I don't think Japan's demographics is that bad compared to other East Asian countries. Their fertility rate has been around 1.4 during the last decade and they also had immigration of around 250K per year.
To show that, I took the population by age, the chance of death, fertility rate and added some immigration/emigration and estimated 3 different scenarios.
1. Japan keep the 1.4 fertility rate, but no immigration
2. Japan keep the 1.4 fertility rate, and 250K immigration
3. Japan drop to a 0.8 fertility rate and 250K emigration
The last one is to show what happens when the government messes up, people don't want kids, the economy fall apart and young people emigrate for better opportunities. That is the real disaster scenario we have imagined in Japan, but is more likely to happen in Korea and China.
In all scenarios, Japan's population will drop. But having 10 million extra people will make a big difference in the immigration scenario. In the 0.8 scenario, even Tokyo will feel empty.
Above 65 will be manageable in a stable fertility scenario. It will increase from 29% to 34% and 36%. But for the low fertility scenario, it will go up to 46%. Almost half of the population will be old.
But the worst is the below 20. In all scenarios, it will drop, but in the low fertility scenario, the young population will almost seize to exist.
This is the future of Korea if it keeps its fertility rate at 0.8, and the politicians there are doing almost nothing to fix the problem.
Is the problem: old people use up more resources and contribute less?
That is one of the problems.
We also have the problem of infrastructure. What should we do with the millions of empty houses/apartments and all the infrastructure that it needs? The government won't be able to maintain it and it will go into disrepair. It will also remove the need to build new homes, which will destroy a lot of jobs.
We also have the economy. Will old people be willing to live in poverty to ensure that young people have the potential to thrive, or will they hoard the resources for themselves to ensure that they can get a large share of the shrinking pie? If they are stupid enough to think a below 1 fertility rate is acceptable, then they are probably stupid enough to want the government to impose high taxes to provide for old people.
It will also remove the need to build new homes, which will destroy a lot of jobs.
A long time ago I was researching the homes real estate market in Japan and became aware that usually homes are new as there is a cultural preference for newness. Used homes tended to be bought not for the home itself, but for the lot and its location. The home woukd be teared down and replaced with building a new home.
Is that still the case?
If so, is there a cultural change that makes living in used homes socially acceptable?
Otherwise, I don't see a removal of the need to build new homes, instead a reduction will take place as the population continues to shrink.
A long time ago I was researching the homes real estate market in Japan and became aware that usually homes are new as there is a cultural preference for newness. Used homes tended to be bought not for the home itself, but for the lot and its location. The home woukd be teared down and replaced with building a new home.
Is that still the case?
If so, is there a cultural change that makes living in used homes socially acceptable?
Otherwise, I don't see a removal of the need to build new homes, instead a reduction will take place as the population continues to shrink.
That is a Japanese thing. In Korea and in China, it is normal to live in apartments and they are expensive no matter if they are new or old. In China, they will only get replaced if the owners are bought up by the government and leased for new land development. If that doesn't happen, then the properties will gradually fall apart while retaining most of it's value. It doesn't make much sense, but that is because it is a bubble driven by investors.
Just to show, I picked a neighborhood that has a mix of old and new housing. It is in the suburbs of Tier 2 city, is not in a good school zone and students can't apply for high schools in the city. That is an area that should have affordable housing, but the prices are still 20 times the average yearly salary. I used 58.com to check the prices.
More than 20 years: 12000 - 18000 yuan
More than 10 years: 12000 - 18000 yuan
2 - 10 years: 12000 - 20000 yuan
Less than 2 years: 12000 - 25000 yuan
People are willing to pay a premium for a new place, but only if it is in a decent neighborhood. The rest of the properties get bought by people in need of housing and investors who believe it will increase in value. Those investors won't be able to get more than 1000 in rent, so most won't bother and just leave it empty.
In Hong Kong,they are tearing down old buildings to build new ones,why?
the old buildings are larger,as population grows,there is a need for more living space,so takes one apt and turn it into 2 apartments.
You skip the spacious balcony,the patio,foyer and servant quarter.
Also older Chinese couples have more children,say 5 ,younger couples prefer to have 2-3 .
also instead of 3 storeys,now they are hi rise .
Older houses do not have shower stalls,some may not even have a bathtub,no hot water and cables and wires exposed,there could also be asbesto inside the wall.
Building has no elevator.
In Hong Kong,they are tearing down old buildings to build new ones,why?
the old buildings are larger,as population grows,there is a need for more living space,so takes one apt and turn it into 2 apartments.
Except, Hong Kong's population isn't growing anymore. It peaked at 7.52 million and has declined to 7.40 million according to Hong Kong Census. And apparently, more than 100,000 people left Hong Kong in 2022 due to the failed covid policies. So we might get below 7.3 million next year. In addition, births have dropped from 53,000 in 2019 to 37,000 in 2021 so Hong Kong needs a large amount of immigration just to keep the population stable.
That should bring house prices down, right? No, of course not! It will probably only drop after the economy fails and Hong Kong gets full of empty apartments just like the mainland.
HK sees a lot of mainland Chinese arriving,this trend should continue.
Jack Ma bought a house on hilltop,many wealthy Chinese like to buy a home in HK t o give them the bragging rights !
There was a study made ,30,000 couples cant have children,they said it has to do with pollution.
I read some moved to UK,due to the Chinese policy
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